Voters want Tory MPs to rally behind Theresa May’s Brexit deal, a poll shows today.
According to the Survation survey for the Daily Mail, 52 per cent say her plan is the best on the table. Only 19 per cent disagreed.
And 41 per cent said the Commons should back the withdrawal agreement – compared with 38 per cent who want it voted down.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent. Reversing Brexit would damage our national standing, according to 47 per cent.
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The poll is a boost for Mrs May who has been tipped for heavy defeat on December 11. As many as 90 Tory MPs are threatening to defy her in the ‘meaningful vote’.
Today the Treasury will publish a major economic analysis that is expected to show that a no-deal Brexit would be a disaster compared with the PM’s blueprint.
The 150-page paper will set out the impact of scenarios, including Mrs May’s Chequers deal, the so-called Norway option, the ‘Canada Plus’ model and a no-deal exit.
The analysis is expected to warn that no deal would have a dire impact. The Bank of England is also expected to publish an analysis showing it would hit house prices.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35
In other Brexit developments yesterday:
- Boris Johnson tried to muscle in on a planned TV debate between Mrs May and Jeremy Corbyn;
- No 10 said the PM would snub Donald Trump at this week’s G20 meeting after he said her proposals could wreck hopes of a trade deal;
- It emerged that Mr Trump’s intervention came hours after her plans were attacked by Nigel Farage on the President’s favourite TV show;
- Allies of Mrs May warned Brexiteers that Britain could be forced into a permanent customs union if parliament rejects her deal;
- Car industry bosses warned that failure to agree a deal would be ‘catastrophic’;
- MPs warned of chaos at ports under no deal;
- Downing Street confirmed it would publish only a summary of attorney general Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice on the backstop;
- Former defence secretary Sir Michael Fallon described Mrs May’s deal as ‘doomed’;
- An attempt to woo Labour MPs appeared to have flopped after just 26 turned up to a briefing by Mrs May’s aides and none said they would back her plan.
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and the prospect of a Labour government, voters favoured the Prime Minister by 46 per cent to 31 per cent
Today’s poll asked voters whether they agreed that Mrs May’s Brexit deal was ‘not ideal but the best on offer’ – 52 per cent agreed against just 19 per cent who did not
Today’s poll asked voters whether they agreed that Mrs May’s Brexit deal was ‘not ideal but the best on offer’ – 52 per cent agreed against just 19 per cent who did not.
Forty-four per cent said the EU would not make further concessions to the UK if Mrs May lost. Nor do voters think a new Tory leader such as Boris Johnson would do any better, with only 25 per cent saying ousting Mrs May would increase the prospects of a better deal.
Almost half of those polled said the Prime Minister would have no choice but to resign if she lost the Commons vote.
Tory supporters are more sympathetic: well over half said she should stay in office in defeat. Tellingly, when the Brexit vote is framed in the way that Mrs May has put it – that Brexit is ‘the best deal for UK and MPs should back it because it is time to get on with Brexit’ – she gets a clear thumbs-up.
A total of 49 per cent agree, with 22 per cent against. The results will be seized on by Downing St as evidence that while MPs are against Mrs May, voters are with her and are impressed by her dogged determination.
The poll suggests however that this does not translate into enthusiasm for her deal.
Boris Johnson tried to muscle in on a planned TV debate between Mrs May and Jeremy Corbyn
Asked to choose between Mrs May’s plan and leaving the EU with no deal, voters opt for no deal by 41 per cent to 35. When asked to choose between the Prime Minister’s plan and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 46 to 37. And faced with leaving with no deal and staying in the EU, voters opt to remain by 50 to 40.
Further support for staying in the EU is reflected in growing backing for the campaign for the ‘People’s Vote’ – in effect a second referendum.
A total of 48 per cent support the idea with 34 opposed. But the public is in no doubt about the potential humiliation caused by any decision to reverse Brexit at the 11th hour – 47 per cent say it would damage our international standing against 24 per cent who disagree.
Damian Lyons-Lowe, boss of Survation, the only polling company to get the result of the 2017 general election right, said: ‘The results show the deal doesn’t please anyone, but the public knows it is the end of the negotiations and think that they – and MPs – should be realistic.
‘They regard Mrs May’s deal as the least worst option and better than a Labour government.’
A total of 1,030 adults took part in the online poll yesterday afternoon.
- Brussels has launched a campaign to lure finance and insurance firms away from London. The Belgian government is hoping to poach them by pointing out that companies would have a ‘passport’ to the EU’s single market.
It is hoping another draw will be the close proximity to key EU institutions such as the Commission.
Cécile Jodogne, the country’s secretary of state for foreign trade for the federal region of Brussels, said: ‘Brussels is where key European decisions are taken.’
Changing tack now will only make things worse
Analysis by SIMON WALTERS
Some Tory MPs have said Mrs May’s deal is ‘as dead as a dodo’. But the Survation poll suggests that while the public regard it as an ugly duckling, they do not want MPs to kill it off in the Commons vote.
The survey provides the clearest evidence yet of the mass confusion caused by Britain’s Brexit crisis.
Bearing in mind it says MPs should back Mrs May’s deal, you would think her option would fare well when compared in a straight contest with the two other main options: ‘no deal’ favoured by Jacob Rees-Mogg, and remaining in the EU, favoured by Tony Blair.
Not so. In a political version of rock, paper, scissors, when asked to choose between Mrs May’s deal and ‘no deal’, voters choose the latter.
Asked to pick between her deal and Remain they opt for Remain. When asked to choose between ‘no deal’ and Remain, Remain wins.
By that reckoning, Blair wins, with Rees-Mogg second and May last.
May at Queen’s University in Belfast, during her visit to Northern Ireland, where she has been speaking about her Brexit deal
But that is all hypothetical.
When the only question that matters for now is put – should MPs back Mrs May on December 11? – the answer is yes. How can these conflicting findings be reconciled?
The public thinks Brexit has become a mess but it is too late to do much about it – and that to change tack now would risk causing an even bigger mess.