Drivers crossing the Channel after Brexit could face five-hour waits in 30-mile tailbacks because of increased border checks.
The alarming forecast by scientists from Imperial College London is based on assuming officials will take two extra minutes to conduct customs and passport checks for each vehicle.
And the so-called ‘smart borders’ proclaimed by Brexiteers as the frictionless solution to cross-Channel chaos will not eliminate the queues for ferries at Dover or the Eurotunnel at Folkstone, experts in Europe say.
Drivers crossing the Channel after Brexit could face five-hour waits in 30-mile tailbacks because of increased border checks
The current average time for a vehicle to pass through passport and customs controls is about two minutes. But once Britain has left the EU, passports may have to be checked individually against EU databases and trucks carrying goods could be forced to fill out lengthy customs declarations and have the paperwork stamped.
Truckers carrying any meat products may be required to have their cargo doors opened and the meat examined, while vets would have to inspect livestock.
And because lorries often carry multiple consignments of goods in a single load, if the paperwork for one shipment is not compliant, it raises the possibility of lengthy delays while the offending goods are removed from the truck.
Even if all that adds up to only two more minutes at the border – making a total of four minutes – it would result in tailbacks of 29.3 miles on the A20 and M20 from Maidstone to Dover at peak time, and the 40-mile journey would take five hours.
Researchers, led by Dr Ke Han and commissioned by the BBC’s Inside Out programme, simulated various delays at Dover and the Eurotunnel check-in at Folkestone using computer modelling.
Factoring various additional minutes of delays at the port led to a ‘cascade of congestion’, according to Dr Han’s team.
Even an extra minute’s delay at Dover or Folkestone would lead to a 20-mile queue on the roads leading to the Channel ports, stretching the journey between Maidstone and Dover to three-and-a-half hours. An additional four minutes – six in total – would cause a horrific crawl of eight hours between Maidstone and Dover at peak times.
Alarmingly, a recent official EU study found that even on the ‘smart border’ between Norway and Sweden, truckers are delayed on average between two and nine minutes while they complete formalities.
Pauline Bastidon, head of European policy at the Freight Transport Association, said haulage firms needed clarity.
‘I’m worried on behalf of our members – there’s only a year left,’ she said. ‘Even the transition period isn’t legally binding yet.’
She called for schemes allowing customs and other checks to take place inland, reducing pressure on the port and Eurotunnel terminal.
How traffic experts mapped out the chaos: Tailbacks (in red) stretch for 30 miles on the motorway approaching the Eurotunnel and Dover, turning a journey of 40 miles into a five-hour crawl, because of extra checks under a post-Brexit scenario forecast by experts
But she added: ‘Outside of the single market and the customs union, there is no such thing as a 100 per cent frictionless border.’
John Keefe, the spokesman for Getlink – the new name for Eurotunnel – said there was no space at Folkestone or Dover for vehicles to be taken for extra checks and Theresa May’s promise to make the border ‘as frictionless as possible’ didn’t go far enough.
‘The only way to run this is completely frictionless – the Channel Tunnel is a non-stop rolling motorway and if you stop any vehicle, you get delays,’ he said.
The knock-on effect could cripple industry, Mr Keefe added.
A Treasury spokesman said last night: ‘We want to have a customs arrangement that ensures trade with the EU is as frictionless as possible. The final arrangements will depend on the negotiations with the EU.’
Leave date may have to be postponed, say MPs
By Brendan Carlin
Another damaging Brexit split has opened up at Westminster after a powerful Commons committee warned that the 2019 date of Britain’s departure from the EU may have to be postponed.
The Brexit committee called on Prime Minister Theresa May to consider abandoning next year’s March 29 exit deadline amid fears that negotiations over withdrawal will not be completed. One pro-EU MP said: ‘The delay would only be for a matter of months. We must get these negotiations right.’
The report from the cross-party committee – chaired by Labour MP and Remain supporter Hilary Benn – also warned that even a two-year transition after Brexit may not be long enough. But the claims were dismissed by Leave backers on the committee who defiantly issued their own Brexit-positive ‘minority report’.
Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg described the main report as ‘a prospectus for Britain to become a vassal state to Brussels and an attempt to overturn’ the referendum result.
The row comes after leaked Government impact reports warned that Brexit would leave Britain’s economy ‘worse off’ in almost every scenario.