Malcolm Turnbull denies he is a ‘dead man walking’ as speculation mounts he will call an election

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has denied he is a ‘dead man walking’ as speculation mounts he will call an election to avoid another leadership challenge.

Speaking to reporters at Parliament House in Canberra on Tuesday, Mr Turnbull said the result of the ballot proved he was not finished as Liberal Party leader.

Mr Turnbull narrowly survived a challenge from Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton in an extraordinary Liberal party room vote, prevailing 48 votes to 35.

But with Mr Dutton only requiring seven more votes to take the top job, fears of another challenge have Mr Turnbull considering a snap election.

 

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has won a leadership ballot 48 votes to 35, defeating a challenge from Peter Dutton

But with Mr Dutton (pictured, left) only requiring seven more votes to take the top job, fears of another challenge have Mr Turnbull considering a snap election

But with Mr Dutton (pictured, left) only requiring seven more votes to take the top job, fears of another challenge have Mr Turnbull considering a snap election

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (right) and Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop arrive for a party room meeting

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (right) and Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop arrive for a party room meeting

Mr Turnbull called for unity at the press conference, and thanked Mr Dutton, who resigned from Cabinet after the spill. 

‘Peter has done an outstanding job as Home Affairs Minister, the first Home Affairs Minister in our country’s history, and I want to thank him for his work,’ Mr Turnbull said, before confirming his offered Mr Dutton the opportunity to stay in Cabinet.

Mr Turnbull emerged from the spill mortally wounded with another challenge likely within weeks.

The speed and size of the rebellion against Mr Turnbull, sparked by opposition to the Prime Minister’s energy plan and disquiet over his performance, has caught many in the party by surprise.

Of the 35 votes for Mr Dutton, ten are believed to have come from Queensland, where MPs are struggling in the polls.  

If Mr Dutton had won today’s spill he would have become Australia’s sixth prime minister in just eight years.  

Mr Dutton (pictured, left) will likely quit Cabinet and return to the backbench, where he will bide his time until the next challenge

Mr Dutton (pictured, left) will likely quit Cabinet and return to the backbench, where he will bide his time until the next challenge

Julie Bishop (pictured, left, with Minister for Small Business Craig Laundy, centre, and Mr Turnbull, right) was re-elected as deputy unopposed

Julie Bishop (pictured, left, with Minister for Small Business Craig Laundy, centre, and Mr Turnbull, right) was re-elected as deputy unopposed

Mr Dutton will join former prime minister Tony Abbott and former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce on an increasingly disgruntled backbench.

The big winner from the Liberal infighting is Labor leader Bill Shorten, who just a few weeks ago was on the backfoot from Mr Turnbull.

But a strong showing in last month’s by-elections precipitated the amazing turnaround in the pair’s respective fortunes.

Mr Shorten and the Labor Party machine will now be drawing up contingencies to fight Mr Dutton at the next election. 

Poll

Who do you support?

  • Malcolm Turnbull 89 votes
  • Peter Dutton 104 votes

Mr Dutton holds his seat by a tiny 1.6 per cent margin and only 2,911 votes – meaning an organised Labor campaign against him could see him lose Dickson, an electorate in Brisbane’s outer north he has held since 2001.

The decision to meet party room discontent head on by announcing the leadership vacant was described as ‘gutsy’ by Mr Turnbull’s supporters. 

Julie Bishop was re-elected as deputy unopposed. 

Despite Tuesday’s ballot result the prime minister will need to reshuffle Cabinet and is a new challenge has been described as ‘only a matter of time’.

The next spill could come as early as this week, or when parliament returns in September.

Previous leadership spills have seen Julia Gillard win her first challenge in a landslide against Kevin Rudd only to lose the second in June 2013 when Labor’s Newspoll primary vote had fallen to a disastrously low 29 per cent.

Bob Hawke was also defeated a second time by Paul Keating in December 1991.

THE REVOLVING LEADERSHIP DOOR IN AUSTRALIAN POLITICS SINCE 2007 

OPPOSITION LEADER BRENDAN NELSON, 2008

After Peter Costello declined to stand for the Liberal leadership after the 2007 election defeat, Brendan Nelson tried to fill the giant shoes of John Howard and failed. Malcolm Turnbull took over in 2008 for his first iteration as Liberal leader.

OPPOSITION LEADER MALCOLM TURNBULL, 2009

Climate change was to be the undoing of Turnbull the first time around. Kevin Andrews moved a spill on November 26, 2009 and lost. The next day Tony Abbott challenged but then declared he would back Joe Hockey. But when Hockey refused to oppose a carbon emissions trading scheme, Abbott stood at the December 1 ballot and defeated Turnbull by one vote.

PRIME MINISTER KEVIN RUDD, 2010

Labor’s Kevin Rudd became the second Australian prime minister to be dumped while in office when Julia Gillard rolled him in 2010 just before an election. She claimed government after 17 days of negotiation to win crossbench support.

PRIME MINISTER JULIA GILLARD, 2013

Three years later, Australia’s first woman prime minister was gone when Rudd finally took his revenge after a failed 2012 coup attempt. In March 2013, Gillard called a spill but no-one challenged. Four months later on June 26, Gillard called Rudd’s bluff again at 4pm and was gone in a caucus vote a couple of hours later. Rudd and Labor lost the election as expected.

PRIME MINISTER TONY ABBOTT, 2015

Abbott led the Liberal-National coalition to a storming victory over Rudd’s Labor in 2013. He called a spill in February 2015, but it wasn’t until September that Malcolm Turnbull finally moved after Abbott had lost 32 Newspolls in a row.

Source: AAP 

Chief government whip Nola Marino speaks to the media to declare the result of the leadership spill

Chief government whip Nola Marino speaks to the media to declare the result of the leadership spill

Minister for Jobs Michaelia Cash arrives at the party room meeting at Parliament House in Canberra

Minister for Jobs Michaelia Cash arrives at the party room meeting at Parliament House in Canberra

CHALLENGES TO SITTING PRIME MINISTERS

March 10, 1971: Deputy Liberal leader Billy McMahon challenged Liberal PM John Gorton, who voted against himself after the vote was tied 33-33

April 8, 1982: Former Foreign Minister Andrew Peacock unsuccessfully challenged Liberal PM Malcolm Fraser, 27-54

June 3, 1991:  Paul Keating who had been Treasurer for eight years lost his first challenge to Labor PM Bob Hawke, 66-44

December 19, 1991: After moving to the backbench, Paul Keating prevailed the second time against Bob Hawke, 56-51

June 24, 2010: Kevin Rudd, a first-term Labor PM, bowed out after Julia Gillard challenged him the first time

February 27, 2012: Kevin Rudd lost his first challenge to Julia Gillard, 71-31

June 27, 2013: Kevin Rudd won his second challenge against Julia Gillard, 57-45 

September 15, 2015: Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull defeated first-term Liberal PM Tony Abbott, 54-44

August 21, 2018: Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton lost to Malcolm Turnbull, 48-35

Immediately after the spill Government whip Nola Marino announced the results and said the ballot was conducted according to precedence.

‘[Mr Turnbull] thanked his colleagues for their support and with will get on with the business now of governing in the interests of all Australians,’ she said. 

Mr Turnbull has seen his support crumble in recent days, forcing him to backflip on his National Energy Guarantee (NEG) in an attempt to appease nervous MPs in his party who want him gone.

Minister for Defence Industry and stauch Turnbull supporter Christopher Pyne on his way to Tuesday's meeting

Minister for Defence Industry and stauch Turnbull supporter Christopher Pyne on his way to Tuesday’s meeting

But caving in to demands from rebel MPs to remove Paris climate targets from the legislation was not enough and Mr Turnbull found himself under intense pressure.

The Prime Minister managed to blindside Mr Dutton by bringing on the vote early, but the closeness of the margin shows almost half of his party want him gone.

On Monday a senior political figure described Mr Turnbull as being in ‘panic mode’ and ‘clearly rattled’ about the amount of support he has lost. 

Others described Mr Turnbull as a ‘dead man walking’ and said discontent among conservative MPs went beyond energy policy. 

Supporters of Mr Dutton believed the required 43 votes needed to topple Mr Turnbull could be found, but the Prime Minister was confident enough to declare the leadership open and head off the challenge in its early stages. 

Minister for Defence Marise Payne arrives at the party room meeting before the leadership spill

Minister for Defence Marise Payne arrives at the party room meeting before the leadership spill



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