Everyone pretends to be a horse racing expert come Melbourne Cup day, but let’s face it – most of us couldn’t tell a home turn from a back straight.
Picking one of the best stayers the world has to offer on the first Tuesday of November is tough for the experts, let alone once-a-year punters.
But with a little inside help, Daily Mail Australia can reveal what you need to look for when selecting a horse in the ‘race that stops a nation’.
Australia’s greatest horse race runs at Flemington on Tuesday. Pictured, punters watch Almandin win the 2016 Melbourne Cup
Picking one of the best stayers the world has to offer on Cup day is tough. These women are doing their best at a previous meeting in Melbourne
Last year’s Melbourne Cup winner Almandin is pictured eating grass out of the trophy
TEMPERAMENT, CONDITION AND COAT
Equine physiotherapist Tom Simpson has worked with Australia’s top racing stables and treated some of the best thoroughbreds in the world.
He believes the secret to picking a horse is just before the big race in the mounting yard.
‘Look at temperament – whether he’s got his game day face on. More often than not you want a nice, relaxed horse,’ Mr Simpson said.
‘You want to avoid horses that are slathering in sweat and running around controlling their handler.
‘The health of the coat and the fitness of the individual go hand in hand. That is quite reflective of how the horse is feeling and its general well-being.’
A horse’s condition is just as important: ‘Definition and muscle tone are key things that go into that,’ Mr Simpson said.
Equine physiotherapist Tom Simpson (pictured) listed temperament, fitness and condition, action and coat as factors to look for in a horse before it races
Daily Mail Australia can reveal what to look for when selecting your horse on Tuesday in the ‘race that stops a nation’ (2016 race pictured)
‘You basically want to rule out a lack of fitness. You don’t want a really fat, roly poly kind of horse. At this level they’re all going to be pretty well spot-on.
‘You want to see the horse is peaking for that run. That’s the biggest thing – is it ready for that race? And then their action, the way they’re walking. You want them walking out nice and even.
‘Make sure the feet are stepping symmetrically, front and behind. Otherwise it might indicate an area of soreness which might impact negatively on their racing.’
Mr Simpson said horses competing in staying races such as the 3200 metre Cup should be more relaxed than those running in sprints, typically 1000 to 1200 metres.
Ladies study the form guide at a previous Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting at Flemington Racecourse
One of this year’s Cup favourites Humidor (left) is narrowly beaten by champion mare Winx in the Cox Plate last month
AGE
Three-year-old horses tend not to be at their peak, while those aged seven and over are usually no match for their younger rivals.
‘Historically, four and five-year-old horses have been the strongest Melbourne Cup competitors,’ Jared Timms from Neds Bookmakers said ahead of Tuesday’s race.
‘But half a dozen six-year-olds have won the race throughout the past decade, including Prince Of Penzance and Almandin.’
Four and five-year-olds have provided more than half of all Cup winners, with 43 and 44 respectively.
Almandin (pictured), trained by Robert Hickmott and ridden by Kerrin McEvoy, saluted in the 2016 race
These fans are pictured checking the form guide during a previous Melbourne Cup Carnival
The last three-year-old to win was Skipton in 1941, and the second of just two eight-year-olds was Catalogue back in 1938.
There have been 32 six-year-olds to win and 11 seven-year-olds, while no nine-year-old has ever won the Melbourne Cup.
History suggests one of this year’s most fancied horses, eight-year-old Almandin, will find it hard to win.
Others who may be past their best include Wicklow Brave, Hartnell, Gallante, Max Dynamite, Libran and Nakeeta.
Marmelo, Humidor, Johannes Vermeer, Tiberian, Red Cardinal, Big Duke and Boom are among those aged in the ideal age bracket.
Rachael Finch is pictured posing with the Melbourne Cup during the Carnival Launch last Tuesday
Racing crowds in the members area are seen studying the form during 2012 Melbourne Cup Day
BARRIER AND SADDLECLOTH
Since 1958 when barrier stalls were first used in the Cup, more horses have won from the four outside barriers (21 to 24) than have won from the four inside (1 to 4).
The most successful barriers in that period have been 11 and 14 – each producing five winners. Single Gaze and Almandin will jump from those barriers on Tuesday.
Irish outsider Gallante will run from barrier 18, which has incredibly never produced a winner.
The most successful saddlecloth is number 1 (worn this year by Hartnell) with a dozen wins, while numbers 4 and 12 have each provided 11 winners.
The least successful numbers are 21 and 23 – carried this year by Thomas Hobson and Amelie’s Star respectively.
The longest drought is for number 20 – last carried to victory back in 1897 by Gaulus.
Wall of Fire wears that number in this year’s race and could be set to make history. Most bookmakers have the Irish horse at around $13.
The most successful saddlecloth number is 1 with 12 wins. Fiorente (pictured) took home the cup with number 6 in 2013
Since 1958 when barrier stalls were first used in the Cup, more horses have won from the four outside barriers (21 to 24) than have won from the four inside (1 to 4)
WEIGHTS
Only three horses have carried more than 56 kilograms to victory since 1983.
Protectionist got home with 56.5kg in 2014, Makybe Diva won one of her three Cups carrying 58kg in 2005 and Jeune galloped to victory with 56.5kg in 1994.
Since 1996 the average weight carried by the winner has been just over 53.5kg.
So horses with around 53-55kg are probably the ones to look out for if you want to be cheering loudest at the finish on Tuesday.
This year they include Marmelo, Red Cardinal, Johannes Vermeer, Bondi Beach, Max Dynamite, Ventura Storm, Wicklow Brave and Big Duke.
Several other less-fancied horses will carry 53kg or less in the big race.
Hartnell, Almandin and Humidor will run with too much weight to win, if the record books are anything to go by.
MALE OR FEMALE
Only three female horses have won the Melbourne Cup in the past 20 years – Jezabeel, Ethereal and three-time champion Makybe Diva.
In 2017 there will only be two entrants flying the flag for the mares – Single Gaze and Amelie’s Star.
But with no mare triumphing since Makybe Diva completed her hat-trick in 2005, it is commonly a man’s world as far as the big Flemington showdown is concerned.
Field Ambassador Rebecca Harding and Donny Galella take part in the 2017 Melbourne Cup Parade on Monday
Women wearing hats and fascinators participate in the Fashions on the Field competition last year
Punters gather around a statue of Makybe Diva during 2016 Melbourne Cup at Flemington Racecourse
BEWARE THE OUTSIDER
Since 1983, just five outright favourites have won: Fiorente ($7) in 2013, Makybe Diva ($4.50) in 2005 and at $3.50 in 2004, Jezabeel ($7) in 1998, Might And Power ($4.50) in 1997 and Let’s Elope ($4) in 1991.
Two equal favourites – Kingston Rule ($8) in 1990 and Empire Rose ($6) in 1988 – have scored in the same period.
Since the Cup was first run in 1861, four horses have won at odds of 100-1: The Pearl (1871), Wotan (1936), Old Rowley (1940) and Prince of Penzance two years ago.
Those at big odds to be wary of this year include Cismontane, Single Gaze, Wicklow Brave and Ventura Storm.
Victorian Racing Club chairman Amanda Elliot is ecstatic after choosing barrier seven for her horse Libran in Tuesday’s race
Racegoers wait to compete in the ‘Fashion on the Field’ competition during Melbourne Cup festivities last year
TRAINERS
International trainers have had plenty of recent success in the Cup.
Irishman Dermot Weld the first overseas raider to conquer with Vintage Crop in 1993 and later Media Puzzle in 2002.
Japanese trainer Katsuhiko Sumii had the 2006 winner Delta Blues, while Frenchman Alain de Royer Dupre became the 150th winner of the Cup with Americain in 2010.
Compatriot Mikel Dezangles followed the next year with Dunaden and the German-trained stayer Protectionist, prepared by Andreas Wohler, scored in 2014.
Elsa Pataky is pictured at the Emirates Marquee on Melbourne Cup Day last year when Almandin was first past the post
Crowds are seen during Melbourne Cup Day at Flemington Racecourse in Melbourne ahead of the 2016 race
This year’s field: Wall of Fire wears number 20 this year and could be set to make history. The last horse to carry the saddlcloth to victory was Gaulus back in 1897
A record-equalling 11 horses trained in the northern hemisphere are in this year’s field, including 2015 runner-up Max Dynamite, one of three runners for Irish trainer Willie Mullins.
Mullins is happy with his entrants and said anything can happen: ‘The Melbourne Cup is such an open race and probably more open this year.
‘I’m hoping we can catch a cheque with one, maybe two and if not all three, but it’s very hard to fancy any one of them to win it.’
The name Cummings was made famous by trainer Bart with his record 12 Melbourne Cups wins – and his grandson James will saddle up this year’s topweight, Hartnell.
Dwayne Dunn, Tommy Berry, Ryan Moore, Damien Oliver, James McDonald, Hugh Bowman pose during the pre-race entertainment on Melbourne Cup Day last year
Racegoers take photographs during a race on Melbourne Cup day at Flemington last year
Michelle Payne is the only female jockey to have won the race, taking Prince of Penzance to victory in 2015. She is pictured with the horse in September
JOCKEYS
Glen Boss (riding Ventura Storm this year) leads present day jockeys, saluting on Makybe Diva in 2003, 2004 and 2005, along with Damien Oliver (suspended) who scored in 1995, 2002 and 2013.
Kerrin McEvoy, who will be on board strongly-fancied Irish horse Red Cardinal, has ridden two Cup winners.
Michelle Payne is the only female jockey to have won the race, taking Prince of Penzance to victory in 2015.
Kathy O’Hara is the only woman to ride in this year’s race. She is feeling confident ahead of her first Cup and happy that people are embracing Single Gaze.
‘Never say never with this horse because you can’t discount anything with her. She’s always underrated. She’s always been an underdog,’ O’Hara said.
Kathy O’Hara (pictured during the Melbourne Cup Parade on Monday) is the only woman to ride in this year’s race
Kerrin McEvoy (pictured right with horse owner Lloyd Williams, who has six runners in this year’s race) will be on board strongly-fancied Irish horse Red Cardinal on Tuesday. He already has two Melbourne Cup wins under his belt
Glen Boss (pictured) will ride Ventura Storm this year. He has won three cups on Makybe Diva in 2003, 2004 and 2005
OWNERS
Of the owners, Lloyd Williams is the most successful with five wins: Almandin last year, Green Moon (2012), Efficient (2007), What A Nuisance (1985) and Just A Dash (1981).
This year Williams has Almandin, Johannes Vermeer, Bondi Beach, Rekindling, US Army Ranger and Gallante running in the big race.
The prospect of Almandin becoming only the sixth multiple winner in the Cup’s history has the defending champion the sentimental favourite with Williams.
‘Almandin, my heart says that,’ Williams said.
BEGINNERS GUIDE TO PLACING A BET ON CUP DAY
A spectator checks the form guide at the Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting in 2007
WIN – YOUR HORSE FINISHES FIRST
The easiest way to have a punt on Cup day is picking the horse which you think will be first to the post.
For example, if you put $10 on a runner at $15 odds, you stand to walk away with $150 if luck’s on your side.
PLACE – YOUR HORSE RUNS FIRST, SECOND OR THIRD
If you think your horse has a good chance of running well but might not quite be good enough to win, perhaps you should make a ‘place’ bet.
You’ll then collect money if your horse finishes first, second or third – although the payout will be substantially lower than the win dividend.
EACH WAY – TO WIN AND PLACE
By placing an ‘each way bet’ you stand to collect BOTH the win and place dividend should your horse finish first.
If it runs second or third – you collect the place dividend but will lose the wager you bet on the win.
THE EXOTICS – HIGHER RISK BUT GREATER REWARD
– QUINELLA
A quinella bet involves picking the two horses you think will finish first and second in any order.
– EXACTA
It’s tough enough picking a winner, but if you think you know which horses will run first AND second in correct order – place an exacta bet for a very healthy return.
– TRIFECTA
Selecting the first three horses across the line is no easy feat – but if you can pull it off you could walk away with thousands of dollars.
To make things slightly easier, you can ‘box’ your selections – meaning the horses can finish first, second and third in any order.
This will, however, decrease the percentage of the trifecta dividend you will receive.
– FIRST FOUR
The only difference between a trifecta and a first four bet is the addition of the fourth place-getter.
Again, you can ‘box’ all four (or as many as you like) so they don’t have to finish in order.
The more horses you choose to ‘box’ – the lesser percentage of the dividend you will collect.
ADVICE FROM THE BOOKIES
Jared Timms from Neds has overlooked this year’s two favourites and says there are horses at very healthy odds which stand every chance.
‘The Cup offers a rare opportunity to take advantage of some truly big odds as the bookies scramble to line up the form and conditioning of horses from all corners of the globe,’ he said.
Mr Timms believes Andreas Wohler trained Red Cardinal is primed to take home this year’s Cup.
‘This horse has only had three starts in 2017 and his form has been outstanding,’ he said.
‘He’s won two races at the two-mile distance of the Melbourne Cup in Germany and the United States.
‘Track conditions vary greatly in those two countries, so that suggests that Red Cardinal is capable of adapting to his surroundings extremely well.
The Melbourne Cup is brought onto the stage during the Cup Carnival Launch at Flemington Racecourse last week
The Cup will attract a crowd of more than 100,000 to Flemington and hundreds of millions of viewers in 163 territories on television and online, according to the Victoria Racing Club
‘With the appropriate luck in running, Red Cardinal will be extremely difficult to beat and boasts great odds.’
Mr Timms has tipped Humidor to run second, Marmelo third and Tiberian at healthy odds to round out the first four.
Meanwhile, Thomas Hackett from Ladbrokes believes superstar jockey Hugh Bowman will ride favourite Mermelo to victory.
‘His form in Europe is nothing short of outstanding and he won the Prix Kergorlay in France, which has been a strong form reference for the Melbourne Cup in the past,’ he said.
‘He ran the best closing sectionals in the Caulfield Cup and will be better suited over 3200 metres.’
Mr Hackett has tipped Irish horse Wall of Fire to finish second, Big Duke third and Tiberian fourth.
THE BOOKIES’ TOP PICKS
A punter studies the form guide at a previous Melbourne Cup Carnival meeting
Jared Timms – Neds Bookmakers
#1 Red Cardinal
There are several reasons why Red Cardinal looms as a potential Melbourne Cup winner. He is trained by Andreas Wohler, who prepared Protectionist to win the Melbourne Cup in 2014. This horse has only had three starts in 2017 and his form has been outstanding – He’s won two races at the two-mile distance of the Melbourne Cup in Germany and the United States.
Track conditions vary greatly in those two countries, so that suggests that Red Cardinal is capable of adapting to his surroundings extremely well. He’ll be ridden by 2016 Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy, who is in a rare vein of form himself and who has experienced plenty of top-level success already this spring. With the appropriate luck in running, Red Cardinal will be extremely difficult to beat and boasts great odds.
#2 Humidor
Humidor gave Winx the biggest scare of her undefeated streak in the Cox Plate and I simply cannot ignore that run. Humidor tends to improve with a lot of racing under his belt and he will contest the Melbourne Cup as seventh point-of-call since August.
The big question mark hovers over whether or not he will race well at two miles – a distance he is yet to see, but his breeding, particularly on his maternal side generally produces horses that perform well at longer trips. Humidor’s ability to settle in running and his trademark late sprint suggests that he can be right in the finish of the Melbourne Cup.
#3 Marmelo
Marmelo is a horse that has performed extremely well in big European races this year and is also proven at the distance of the Melbourne Cup – perhaps the most important form indicator for the race. Marmelo was faced with a wall of horses when he rounded onto the final straight in the Caulfield Cup, but he flew home after finding clear running and showed all the signs of a horse that will be much better at a longer distance.
As horses progress further into their campaigns, they tend to improve and I am expecting Marmelo to carry the most improvement into the Melbourne Cup. The Flemington track is big and wide and that should suit this horse’s running style, while champion jockey Hugh Bowman is a big bonus to any horse’s chances and Marmelo will have that luxury on Tuesday afternoon.
#4 Tiberian
French horse Tiberian is gunning for a third-consecutive race win when he takes his place in the Melbourne Cup field. Tiberian is a horse that simply does not know how to run a bad race and he was strong to the line in two talent-rich races in France, both contested at 2500m in August. This is a horse that is yet to step out to 3200m this season, but he has performed well at the distance previously and there is nothing to say that he won’t again in the Melbourne Cup.
Tiberian has been ridden by Olivier Peslier in each of his five races this year and the French jockey will fly to Australia to take the ride again; a sign that the horse’s camp is confident that he will run well and perhaps even win the Melbourne Cup. I think that he is over the odds at $31 and well and truly worth consideration at that price, as an each-way option.
Thomas Hackett – Ladbrokes
#1 Marmelo
His form in Europe is nothing short of outstanding and he won the Prix Kergorlay in France, which has been a strong form reference for the Melbourne Cup in the past.
He ran the best closing sectionals in the Caulfield Cup and will be better suited over 3200 metres and he has the benefit of Hugh Bowman in the saddle.
#2 Wall Of Fire
He made his Australian racing debut with a fast-finishing second in the Herbert Power Stakes and the form coming out of that race has been strong. He has the turn-of-foot at the end of a strong staying test that is good enough to win a Melbourne Cup.
#3 Big Duke
He has been racing extremely well this preparation and is from the stable of master trainer Darren Weir. He did not have a great deal of luck when he was beaten in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last start. Has a similar profile to 2015 Melbourne Cup winner Prince Of Penzance
#4 Tiberian
Owners Australian Thoroughbred Bloodstock almost won the Melbourne Cup with Heartbreak City 12 months ago. He heads to Australia on the back of a career best performance in the Grand Prix Deauville in France. He will have no problems running out a strong 3200 metres.