Rising sea levels could bring 50ft floods to NYC by 2300

Rising sea levels coupled with powerful future storms could one day pose major risks to New York City, a new study warns, with potential to leave parts submerged beneath nearly 20 feet of water by the end of the century.

The study calculated the ‘500-year-flood’ heights for the coming centuries, revealing how efforts to mitigate climate change today could dramatically change the coastal risks.

If emissions continue in a ‘business-as-usual’ fashion, flood height could reach 17 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 – and, such a deluge would swallow the south Bronx, Harlem, and all of lower Manhattan, along with parts of Queens and Brooklyn.

If emissions continue in a ‘business-as-usual’ fashion, flood height could reach 17 feet by 2100 and 50 feet by 2300 – and, such a deluge would swallow the south Bronx, Harlem, and all of lower Manhattan, along with parts of Queens and Brooklyn. This is illustrated above

THE STUDY 

Penn State researchers calculated ‘500-year-flood’ heights for the coming centuries, revealing how efforts to mitigate climate change today could dramatically change the coastal risks. 

The 500-year flood height addresses floods that have a 1 in 500 chance of occurring in any given year.

In a ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario, they found that flood height could reach 17 feet by 2100.

By 2300, the 500-year flood could hit 50 feet. 

In the study, researchers from Pennsylvania State University analyzed both the history and future of sea levels and storm surges, starting with preindustrial times all the way through the year 2300.

The simulations show what could happen if rapid carbon dioxide release continues, driving future melting in the Antarctic ice sheet.

The resulting sea level rise from Antarctic instability may be far greater than has been accounted for in coastal planning, the researchers warn.

‘If we cause large sea-level rise, that dominates future risks, but if we could prevent sea-level rise and just have the storm surge to worry about, our projections show little change in coastal risk from today during most years,’ said Michael E Mann, distinguished professor of meteorology and atmospheric science and director of Penn State’s Earth System Science Center.

‘While those storms that strike New York City might be bigger and stronger, there may be fewer of them as changing storm tracks increasingly steer the storms away from NYC and toward other regions.’

The study calculated the ¿500-year-flood¿ heights for the coming centuries, revealing how efforts to mitigate climate change today could dramatically change the coastal risks. A stock image is pictured

The study calculated the ‘500-year-flood’ heights for the coming centuries, revealing how efforts to mitigate climate change today could dramatically change the coastal risks. A stock image is pictured

The 500-year flood height addresses floods that have a 1 in 500 chance of occurring in any given year.

In the study, the simulations showed that reducing warming enough to preserve the Antarctic ice sheet could slash New York’s flood risk.

Plans to reduce emissions, aim to limit future warming; the Paris Accord hopes to limit rising temperatures to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit to prevent future climate disasters.

If the concern of sea level rise were removed, changes in storm surge could still pose a threat to the city, especially with storms expected to become more powerful in a warmer future.

In the study, researchers from Pennsylvania State University analyzed both the history and future of sea levels and storm surges, starting with preindustrial times all the way through the year 2300. Floods for 2100 and 2300 are illustrated above

In the study, researchers from Pennsylvania State University analyzed both the history and future of sea levels and storm surges, starting with preindustrial times all the way through the year 2300. Floods for 2100 and 2300 are illustrated above

But, this same warming could cause the storms to shift offshore and northward, pulling them away from the city.

‘If a shift occurs toward less common but possibly larger storms, it poses special challenges for coastal planners, and highlights the value of additional progress in understanding and projecting the tracks as well as the strength of these storms,’ said Mann.

According to the researchers, the coastal risks would not be much different than today if we are able to prevent sea-level rise.

‘Sea level is rising and higher sea level increases the damages from coastal storms,’ said Richard B alley, Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences, Penn State.

‘Human decisions about energy will be important in determining how much the sea rises and thus how much damage we face, and accurate projections of storms will help in minimizing the risks.’ 

Read more at DailyMail.co.uk