Southern California fire weather less dire than prediction

LOS ANGELES (AP) – Southern Californians already dealing with a siege of destructive wildfires were warned to be ready for extreme fire potential early Thursday, but conditions turned out to be less dire than predicted even though strong Santa Ana winds were blowing.

Ken Pimlott, director of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, had said Wednesday that a color-coded danger scale had reached purple, which was never used previously, and winds could reach 80 mph.

Later, the California Office of Emergency Services transmitted a region-wide emergency alert to mobile phones in Los Angeles and six other counties: “Strong winds overnight creating extreme fire danger. Stay alert. Listen to authorities.”

Palm trees sway in a gust of wind as a firefighter carries a water hose while battling a wildfire at Faria State Beach in Ventura, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. The wind-swept blazes have forced tens of thousands of evacuations and destroyed dozens of homes. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

The purple that Pimlott referred to is part of the “Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index ” produced by the U.S. Forest Service, the National Interagency Coordination Center’s Predictive Services and other collaborators to categorize Santa Anas according to fire potential.

The threat index uses a predictive model that incorporates moisture levels of dead and live vegetation and weather models, including wind speeds and atmospheric moisture, to produce a six-day forecast for potentially large fires. The result is then compared to climate data and the historical record of fires to create the rating.

On Thursday, the National Weather Service said there was a “burst” of winds Wednesday night but it subsided, and it appeared models may have “over forecast” Thursday’s wind event. Nonetheless, parts of Southern California still were buffeted by strong winds, including 88 mph in San Diego County and 85 mph in Ventura County, where the largest fire is burning.

A pickup truck passes a wildfire burning along the 101 Freeway in Ventura, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. The wind-swept blazes have forced tens of thousands of evacuations and destroyed dozens of homes. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

A pickup truck passes a wildfire burning along the 101 Freeway in Ventura, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. The wind-swept blazes have forced tens of thousands of evacuations and destroyed dozens of homes. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Traffic moves along the 101 Freeway as smoke from a wildfire fills the air in Ventura, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. The wind-swept blazes have forced tens of thousands of evacuations and destroyed dozens of homes. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

Traffic moves along the 101 Freeway as smoke from a wildfire fills the air in Ventura, Calif., Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. The wind-swept blazes have forced tens of thousands of evacuations and destroyed dozens of homes. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)

A firefighter battles a wildfire in Ojai, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

A firefighter battles a wildfire in Ojai, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

In this Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017 photo, embers fly from a tree as wind whips through a wildfire in Ojai, Calif. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

In this Wednesday, Dec. 6, 2017 photo, embers fly from a tree as wind whips through a wildfire in Ojai, Calif. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Firefighters battle a wildfire in Ojai, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Firefighters battle a wildfire in Ojai, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Firefighter Patrick Larsen, of San Luis Obispo, battles a wildfire in Ojai, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Firefighter Patrick Larsen, of San Luis Obispo, battles a wildfire in Ojai, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Flames consume a home as a wildfire burns in Ojai, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

Flames consume a home as a wildfire burns in Ojai, Calif., on Thursday, Dec. 7, 2017. (AP Photo/Noah Berger)

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