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State election drama in New South Wales as the Coalition wins a historic third term

Gladys Berejiklian has made history as the first female New South Wales Premier to win an election in her own right.

The 48-year-old daughter of Armenian migrants won a third consecutive term for the Coalition, a feat which hadn’t been achieved in the state since 1971.

Labor struggled in Sydney, where it picked up just one seat from the Liberal Party, after video emerged of Opposition Leader Michael Daley blaming Asian immigrants for taking jobs away from young Australians. 

The election also saw former federal Labor leader Mark Latham win an upper house seat for One Nation, as the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party tripled their presence in the lower house.

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Gladys Berejiklian has made history as the first female New South Wales Premier to win an election in her own right and hailed it as a victory for minority Australians with a long surname

Mr Latham, running under the banner of Pauline Hanson’s party, has returned to politics for the first time in 14 years, after winning an eight-year term in the NSW Legislative Council.  

He secured 6.1 per cent of the upper house vote, with preference flows, which was well above the upper house quote of 4.55 per cent.

‘At the moment we are tracking towards two quotas and when the metropolitan numbers are counted in the Legislative Council they are pretty encouraging,’ he said.

Labor has only gained Coogee in Sydney, with the Opposition’s poor result blamed on video of Mr Daley blaming Chinese immigrants with a PhD for taking the jobs of young Australians.

He vowed to continue as Labor leader, even though the Opposition failed to win the Liberal Party’s most marginal seat of East Hills.

The daughter of Armenian migrants is Australia's first female conservative premier to win an election in her own right, after 5.27 million voters cast their ballot (pictured are Krikorat and Arsha Berejiklian, the proud parents of the Premier)

The daughter of Armenian migrants is Australia’s first female conservative premier to win an election in her own right, after 5.27 million voters cast their ballot (pictured are Krikorat and Arsha Berejiklian, the proud parents of the Premier)

In her victory speech, Ms Berejiklian said she was proud to live in a state where ‘someone with a long surname and a woman’ could be Premier.  

She promised to work closely with the state’s three independents ‘whether or not my government is a majority or a minority government’. 

‘We will continue to govern for all of you,’ she said, in the presence of past and present Liberal prime ministers John Howard and Scott Morrison.   

‘For the first time in nearly half a century the people of NSW have seen as fit to give us a third term,’ Ms Berejiklian said.

Ms Berejiklian (sisters Rita and Mary pictured) is also the state's first premier to win an election, eight years after Labor's Kristina Keneally lost in a devastating landslide

Ms Berejiklian (sisters Rita and Mary pictured) is also the state’s first premier to win an election, eight years after Labor’s Kristina Keneally lost in a devastating landslide

The Premier declared her Liberal Party had not conceded a seat at the election, despite being on course to lose Coogee in Sydney’s south-east to Labor as it kept its most marginal electorate of East Hills, in the city’s south-west.

‘The Liberal Party will not concede a single seat loss in this election,’ she said.

‘In some of our seats we’ve had a swing to the government.’

Seats that have changed

COOGEE

Labor appears to have gained this electorate in Sydney’s south-east from the Liberal Party. The ALP lost this seat in the 2011 landslide loss after holding it for 37 years.

LISMORE

Labor could gain this northern NSW electorate from the Nationals, which it hasn’t held since 1965. 

BARWON: The Shooters Fishers and Farmers appear to have taken this seat from the Nationals, which had held it since 1950 when they were the Country Party.

MURRAY

The Shooters have also gained this electorate in the far-west of NSW which has mainly been in conservative hands since 1932. 

Ms Berejiklian is also the state’s first female premier to win an election, eight years after Labor’s Kristina Keneally lost in a devastating landslide.

With fixed, four-year terms, her win means the Liberal and National parties will, by 2023, have been in power for 12 years, the longest in the history of the Coalition parties in NSW. 

Other results show Labor is ahead in the Nationals-held seat of Lismore, which it hasn’t held since 1965. 

The government’s net loss of four seats, so far, would see the Coalition stay in power with a narrow majority, holding 48 lower house seats in the 93-seat Legislative Assembly.

Mr Daley conceded defeat shortly after 9.30pm AEDT, making a phone call to the Premier as results showed the Opposition with only 35 or 36 seats.

He told party faithful 25 minutes later he intended to remain leader of the Labor Party and said his 134 days heading the Opposition, since November, wasn’t enough time.

‘I thought that would be enough time to get across the state,’ he said. 

‘It really hasn’t been a great result for the major parties and we do have more work to do.’  

Mr Daley mistakenly said he had been the member for Maroubra since 1995 even though he didn’t win that Sydney seat in a by-election until 2005, when former Labor premier Bob Carr retired from Parliament.

‘I thank the people of Maroubra who have re-elected me again tonight,’ he said. 

‘They’ve been doing so continually since 1995.’ 

Ms Berejiklian's victory marks the first time since 1971 the Coalition has secured a third consecutive term in NSW (she is pictured with former Liberal Prime Minister John Howard and current PM Scott Morrison)

Ms Berejiklian’s victory marks the first time since 1971 the Coalition has secured a third consecutive term in NSW (she is pictured with former Liberal Prime Minister John Howard and current PM Scott Morrison)

Opposition Leader Michael Daley conceded defeat shortly after 9.30pm AEDT making a phone call to the Premier.

Opposition Leader Michael Daley conceded defeat shortly after 9.30pm AEDT making a phone call to the Premier.

During the final week of the campaign, Mr Daley had told a Sky News People’s Forum debate Labor would spend another $3 billion on TAFE, when the Opposition policy was to increase spending by $64 million over four years. 

The man who wanted to be the next premier of NSW had his sums wrong by a staggering 47 times.

ABC election analyst Antony Green declared a victory for the government shortly after 8pm AEDT.

‘This has been a very good result for the Liberal Party tonight,’ he said.

‘There will be a Coalition government.’

He told party faithful 25 minutes later he intended to remain leader of the Labor Party and said his 134 days heading the Opposition, since November, wasn't enough time

He told party faithful 25 minutes later he intended to remain leader of the Labor Party and said his 134 days heading the Opposition, since November, wasn’t enough time

Labor is struggling to make up sufficient ground in the New South Wales election to have a chance of forming a minority government (party true believers pictured on election night)

Labor is struggling to make up sufficient ground in the New South Wales election to have a chance of forming a minority government (party true believers pictured on election night)

With a narrow majority, Ms Berejiklian won’t need to court regional independents Greg Piper and Joe McGirr, or Sydney MP Alex Greenwich, to form a minority government.

In the upper house she may need to rely on the support of former federal Labor leader Mark Latham, who is likely to have won a seat for One Nation.

Labor is unlikely to have significantly improved on its 2015 seat tally of 34 as it struggled in Sydney.

The swing towards the Labor Party was too weak in Sydney for it to gain enough seats to have a shot at forming a minority government with the support of the Greens.

Statewide, the Liberal Party had 33.2 per cent of the primary vote with the Nationals winning 8.6 per cent, giving the government 41.8 per cent of first preferences.

Labor had 33 per cent first-preference support. 

The daughter of Armenian migrants would be Australia's first female conservative premier to win an election in her own right

The daughter of Armenian migrants would be Australia’s first female conservative premier to win an election in her own right

In Sydney, Labor only picked up Coogee from the Liberal Party, where it secured a 3.6 per cent swing. 

The is an area where the $2.1 billion South East Light Rail has been delayed by a year to May 2020, as the cost blew out by $500 million.

Updated counting showed a 0.3 per cent swing to the Liberals in East Hills, the party’s most marginal seat.

Key seats that could decide the NSW election

EAST HILLS

The Liberal Party’s most marginal seat in south-west Sydney was won by less than 400 votes in 2015.

Barrister Cameron Murphy, a former head of the NSW Council for Civil Liberties and son of a High Court judge, is running again.

He faced a nasty smear campaign in 2015, with pamphlets falsely accusing him of being a ‘paedophile lover’ based on his work as a civil libertarian. 

The margin is 0.4 per cent.

COOGEE

The Liberal Party could struggle to held this beach-side seat in Sydney’s south-east.

Bruce Notley-Smith, the state’s first openly gay lower house MP, has a bare 2.9 per cent margin.

The delayed completion of the South East Light Rail could hurt the chances of the former Randwick mayor. 

GOULBURN

Labor has a strong chance in this seat near Canberra, even though it hasn’t held it since 1965.

The margin of 6.6 per cent is also relatively safe for the Liberal Party.

Cabinet minster Pru Goward, however, is retiring and Labor’s candidate Ursula Stephens was previously a senator. 

LISMORE

While Labor hasn’t held this seat for 53 years, it has a chance following the retirement of long-time Nationals MP Thomas George.

The Nationals suffered a massive 21.5 per cent swing against them in 2015, clinging on by just 2.9 per cent, after preferences.

The Greens came second, with 26.4 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of Labor’s 25.6 per cent.

This time, Labor is running former state and federal MP Janelle Saffin, who is odds-on favourite.

UPPER HUNTER

Labor has short odds in this rural seat it hasn’t held since 1910.

The National Party holds it be a slim 2.2 per cent margin, making it their most marginal seat.

Michael Johnsen was elected in this seat, which takes in Muswellbrook and Singleton, despite suffering a 20.8 per cent swing against him in 2015.

BARWON

The Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party are odds-on favourites with Sportsbet to claim from the National Party this seat which covers much of western NSW.

Former minister Kevin Humphries is also retiring. 

The Shooters party won Orange in a 2016 by-election and are looking to pick up more seats west of the Great Dividing Range. 

TWEED

Sportsbet also has Labor as favourites to claim from the National Party this coastal seat, which straddles the Queensland border.

Geoff Provest has been the local member since 2007 and wants his electorate to be in the same time zone as Queensland.

He held this seat in 2015 with a 3.2 per cent margin despite suffering an 18.5 per cent swing against him. 

PENRITH

Sports Minister Stuart Ayres holds this seat by a 6.2 per cent margin, making it the Liberal Party’s third most marginal seat. 

Labor’s candidate barrister Cameron Murphy, who also failed in 2015, conceded Mr Daley’s comments had ‘done a lot of damage’ but added over development was a bigger issue.

The Opposition is also in trouble in Kogarah, in Sydney’s south, with the Liberal Party’s ethnic Chinese candidate Scott Yung recording an 8.7 per cent swing against Labor in early counting.

Sitting member and former Labor leadership contender Chris Minns suffered a backlash, following Mr Daley’s unearthed comments blaming Asian immigrants for taking jobs from young Australians.  

Kogarah, where the margin was 6.9 per cent, was one of the 20 seats Labor kept in 2011 as it suffered its worst-ever election loss in NSW. 

NSW Labor frontbencher Jodi McKay, who holds the marginal Sydney seat of Strathfield, said Mr Daley’s comments on Asian hurt the Opposition.

‘The feedback that I got, they were regarded as a setback to us,’ she told the ABC.

‘That is really a disappointing result.’  

The Shooters party are set to gain Barwon from the Nationals with a 19.5 per cent swing and Murray with a 27.6 per cent swing.

The National Party was under threat in Upper Hunter, with early counting showing a 4.2 per cent swing to Labor with preferences from the Shooters Fishers and Farmers Party.

This would be enough for the rural electorate to fall into Labor hands for the first time since 1910, but later results showed that was unlikely.

While most polls were tipping a hung parliament after the election Malcolm Mackerras, a veteran election analyst, had predicted Ms Berejikian’s Coalition government being returned with a majority based on the strength of the state economy.

‘I do think she deserves to be re-elected,’ he told Daily Mail Australia last week.

‘Also, she has changed her reputation from being indecisive to being decisive by insisting on the stadiums decisions that they’ve made and not being bullied out of those decisions.  

‘I think she’s personally competent.’ 

Mr Mackerras had predicted the Berejiklian government would lose four seats, giving it 48 electorates in the lower house of Parliament.

Deputy Premier John Barilaro is safe in his marginal Nationals seat of Monaro, with a swing of 3.5 per cent towards him on postal votes.

‘It’s not a sigh of relief, it’s early counting,’ he told the ABC.

‘I’m feeling confident.’  

Liberal Sports Minister Stuart Ayres was safe in his western Sydney seat of Penrith, the Liberal Party’s third most marginal.

Labor was hopeful of an upset win in Goulburn in southern NSW, which it hasn’t held since 1965, following the retirement of cabinet minister Pru Goward, the mother of former model Tziporah Malkah. 

Labor needed to pick up 13 seats in Saturday’s election to clinch an outright majority.

A special Newspoll, published in The Weekend Australian, showed the coalition ahead of Labor 51-49 on a two-party preferred basis. 

On early exit poll results, this was shaping up to be the first hung parliament in NSW since the 1991 election when Nick Greiner was Liberal Party premier.

Just last week, Labor was leading in the polls, with a UComms /ReachTel poll showing the Opposition leading the government 51 to 49 per cent, after preferences.

Exit polls and early results predicted the Coalition would be returned without a majority, losing six seats to Labor. 

A Nine exit poll is pointing to a swing of 2.3 per cent to Labor (Opposition Leader Michael Daley pictured with Penrith candidate Karen McKeown) in Australia's most populous state, with both parties on 50:50 support after preferences

A Nine exit poll is pointing to a swing of 2.3 per cent to Labor (Opposition Leader Michael Daley pictured with Penrith candidate Karen McKeown) in Australia’s most populous state, with both parties on 50:50 support after preferences 

The Liberal Party has released negative television election advertisements featuring former prime minister John Howard, warning of the Shooters doing preference deals with Labor in the bush.

Labor had traction early in the campaign by taking a stance against the $729 million rebuild of Allianz Stadium at Moore Park, in Sydney’s east, and another $810 million  replacement of ANZ Stadium at Sydney Olympic Park.

The Opposition struggled in the final week of the campaign, following revelations he blamed Asian immigrants for taking jobs away from young Australians.

Mr Mackerras said this would have hurt Labor in Sydney electorates with a high proportion of overseas-born voters.

‘It would offend them because they wouldn’t like to be called foreigners when they’ve taken out Australian citizenship,’ said.

‘If I was such a person I would be offended.  

‘Michael Daley is not a particularly good leader for Labor.’  

What happened in YOUR seat – New South Wales election results 2019

 LIBERAL-NATIONAL SEATS

 East Hills (Lib) 0.4% LIB AHEAD

Upper Hunter (Nats) 2.2% NATS AHEAD

Monaro (Nats) 2.5% NATS RETAIN

Lismore (Nats) 2.9% ALP AHEAD

Coogee (Libs) 2.9% ALP AHEAD

Tweed (Nats) 3.2% NATS AHEAD

Penrith (Lib) 6.2% LIB AHEAD

Oatley (Lib) 6.6% LIB AHEAD

Gouburn (Lib) 6.6% LIB AHEAD

Holsworthy (Lib) 6.7% LIB AHEAD

Heathcote (Lib) 7.6% LIB RETAIN

Bega (Lib) 8.2% LIB RETAIN

Kiama (Lib) 8.7% LIB RETAIN

Myall Lakes (Nat) 8.7% NAT RETAIN

Seven Hills (Lib) 8.7% LIB RETAIN

Terrigal (Lib) 9.0% LIB RETAIN

South Coast (Lib) 9.6% LIB RETAIN

Mulgoa (Lib) 9.7% LIB RETAIN

Clarence (Nat) 9.7% NAT RETAIN

Tamworth (Nat) 10.0% NAT RETAIN

Oxley (Nat) 10.9% NAT RETAIN

Ryde (Lib) 11.5% LIB RETAIN

Riverstone (Lib) 12.2% LIB RETAIN

Parramatta (Lib) 12.9% LIB RETAIN

Barwon (Nat) 12.9% SHOOTERS AHEAD

Miranda (Lib) 13.0% LIB RETAIN

Albury (Lib) 13.2% LIB RETAIN

Coffs Harbour (Nat) 14.3% NAT RETAIN

Bathurst (Nat)  15.8% NAT RETAIN

Epping (Lib) 16.2% LIB RETAIN

Wollondilly (Lib) 17.3% LIB PROBABLE

Hawkesbury (Lib) 17.8% LIB RETAIN

Lane Cove (Lib) 17.8% LIB RETAIN

Camden (Lib) 18.3% LIB RETAIN

Drummoyne (Lib) 18.8% LIB RETAIN

Hornsby (Lib) 18.9% LIB RETAIN

Port Macquarie (Nat) 19.0% NAT RETAIN

Cootamundra (Nat) 20.4% NAT RETAIN

Dubbo (Nat) 20.4% UNDECIDED

Cronulla (Lib) 20.9% LIB RETAIN

North Shore (Lib) 21.2% LIB RETAIN

Baulkham Hills (Lib) 21.8% LIB RETAIN

Murray (Nat) 22.7% SHOOTERS AHEAD

Vaucluse (Lib) 22.9% LIB RETAIN

Ku-ring-gai (Lib) 23.0% LIB RETAIN

Willoughby (Lib) 24.5% LIB RETAIN

Manly (Lib) 24.5% LIB RETAIN

Wakehurst (Lib) 25.2% LIB RETAIN

Pittwater (Lib) 25.7% LIB RETAIN

Northern Tablelands (Nat) 27.1%

Davidson (Lib) 28.8% LIB RETAIN

Castle Hills (Lib) 29.4% LIB RETAIN

 LABOR SEATS

 Gosford 0.2% ALP RETAIN

The Entrance 0.4% ALP RETAIN

Strathfield 1.8% ALP RETAIN

Granville 2.1% ALP RETAIN

Prospect 3.4% ALP RETAIN

Port Stephens 4.7% ALP AHEAD

Rockdale 4.8% ALP RETAIN

Auburn 5.9% ALP RETAIN

Kogarah 6.9% UNDECIDED

Campbelltown 7.3% ALP RETAIN

Newcastle 7.4% ALP RETAIN

Macquarie Fields 8.1% ALP RETAIN

Blue Mountains 8.1% ALP RETAIN

Wyong 8.7% ALP RETAIN

Londonderry 8.8% ALP RETAIN

Wollongong 8.9% ALP RETAIN

Summer Hill 10.5% ALP RETAIN

Maroubra 10.8% ALP RETAIN

Charlestown 12.9% ALP RETAIN

Swansea 13.0% ALP RETAIN

Blacktown 13.2% ALP RETAIN

Maitland 13.8% ALP RETAIN

Bankstown 14.0% ALP RETAIN

Heffron 14.1% ALP RETAIN

Mount Druitt 15.4% ALP RETAIN

Canterbury 15.7% ALP RETAIN

Shellharbour 17.0% ALP RETAIN

Cabramatta 17.2% ALP RETAIN

Keira 17.4% ALP RETAIN

Fairfield 17.8% ALP RETAIN

Wallsend 20.8% ALP RETAIN

Liverpool 20.9% ALP RETAIN

Lakemba 21.6% ALP RETAIN

Cessnock 22.0% ALP RETAIN

CROSS BENCH

Orange (Shooters Fishers and Farmers) 0.1%  SHOOTERS RETAIN

Ballina (Greens) 3.1% GREEN RETAIN

Balmain (Greens) 4.7% GREENS RETAIN

Sydney (Independent) 8.1% IND RETAIN

Newtown (Greens) 9.3% GREEN RETAIN

Wagga Wagga (Ind) 9.6% IND RETAIN

Lake Macquarie (Ind) 10.7% IND RETAIN

 

* Margins are from the 2015 election except for Orange and Wagga Wagga, which the government lost in by-elections 

Read more at DailyMail.co.uk


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