Thousands more pupils are set to clinch the top GCSE grades needed for Oxbridge despite reforms to make them harder, a report suggests.
Old alphabetical grades of A*-G were replaced by numerical ones from 9-1 last year in maths and English language and literature.
Another 20 subjects will be brought under the new system this year, with 8 and 9 being the top grades.
Thousands more pupils are set to clinch the top GCSE grades needed for Oxbridge despite reforms to make them harder, a report suggests
But an academic suggests the proportion of 8-9s in some subjects this year could be almost double that of A* grades under the old regime. Professor Alan Smithers, of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham University, said: ‘We have courses that are more demanding and exams that are more searching. And yet the results could be said to be coming out better.’
The academic claims 8 and 9 are being viewed as the equivalent of the old A*. Top universities including Oxford and Cambridge are also thought to see the grades as a way of distinguishing the top applicants.
Professor Smithers said that on average across all subjects taken in the first year of the new regime, about two-thirds more got a grade 8 or an 9 than were awarded an A* the year before. He added: ‘Parents, pupils and schools have increasingly come to see straight A*s as the acme of achievement in GCSE. Although it does not sound like it a grade 8 is, in fact, the equivalent of an A*.
‘And, counter-intuitively, in tougher exams these are going to increase if the three reformed GCSEs in 2017 are any guide to what will happen with the 20 new GCSEs this year.’
His research found that in English literature, 5 per cent of entries got A* in 2016 while 9.5 per cent got 8 or 9 in 2017 – almost double.
Meanwhile, in English language, 4.5 per cent of entries got A* in 2016, while 7.8 per cent got 8 or 9 in 2017. And in maths, 7.1 per cent got an A* in 2016 and 10.3 per cent got 8 or 9 in 2017.
Professor Smithers said: ‘Essentially the A* has been split into two and we are probably getting people achieving an 8 who under the old system would have got an A. They’ve created more room at the top.
‘It means now we are getting more grades equivalent to the old A* than before. It’s very odd. More people seem to be getting these grades than I was expecting.’ Exam regulator Ofqual has said it is not helpful to compare A* with 8 and 9 because they are not directly equivalent.
It says the old A and A* have been replaced by three grades – 7, 8 and 9. According to Ofqual, the bottom of an A is the same as the bottom of a 7, and the bottom of a C is the same as the bottom of a 4 – but no other comparisons can be made.
Professor Smithers’ wide-ranging report also predicts as few as 200 students could get a clean sweep of 9 grades across eight subjects. Oxford and Cambridge take GCSEs as well as A level results into account along with a whole range of other extra-curricular activities and interests when assessing applicants.
Old alphabetical grades of A*-G were replaced by numerical ones from 9-1 last year in maths and English language and literature
It comes amid a row over the new exam grades after Ofqual predicted the same proportion – a fifth – will get top grades as under the old system.
Grade boundaries have been set lower to account for the fact that the new exams are tougher. The reforms are aimed at raising standards, but critics have questioned the point if the proportions of top results are coming out the same.
An Ofqual spokesman said: ‘GCSEs have been reformed to better prepare students for A levels or employment, with more challenging content and a different approach to assessment.
‘It is not possible to make direct comparisons, although there are anchor points in the new grading system at 7 (A), 4 (C) and 1 (G).’
A Department for Education spokesman added: ‘Our new gold-standard GCSEs don’t just raise academic standards but the new grade 9 provides stretch at the top end of the ability range to recognise and reward truly exceptional performance.’
Last week A-level results showed the highest proportion of entries graded A or A* for six years, despite an overhaul designed to make the exams more rigorous.