Even if Manchester City are crowned champions weeks before the end of the season, the rest of the Big Six are involved in a battle for Champions League spots likely to go down to the wire.
Supporters of Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal all demand to finish in the top four as a minimum requirement, but two of those clubs won’t make it.
With £1billion shared between Champions League clubs each season, Sportsmail assesses where this very lucrative race will be won or lost.
Manchester City lead the Premier League but which other teams will finish in the top four?
MANCHESTER UNITED
2nd with 50 points (+ 32 goal difference)
RECENT FORM
United have bounced back from defeat in the Manchester derby by going seven games unbeaten in the league. While three of those have been draws, the consistency is a halmark of Jose Mourinho teams and has helped them to solidify second spot.
WHY THEY WILL MAKE THE TOP FOUR
Three clean sheets in a row isn’t easy in the Premier League and underlines that Mourinho has got his defence organised. They also carry a goal threat from different areas and have had a dozen different scorers this season. Against Stoke, Antonio Valencia, Anthony Martial and Romelu Lukaku all got on the scoresheet
WHY THEY WON’T
Mourinho’s moods blow so hot and cold, you do wonder if it might impact on United’s players at some stage. Henrik Mkhitaryan has clearly been unable to handle it, Luke Shaw and Martial have had struggles in the past, and Marcus Rashford is currently struggling to claim a starting place. The rows with other managers like Antonio Conte could also be a distraction if they resurface
Paul Pogba and Manchester United currently sit 12 points behind their local rivals City
ANY BUSINESS LEFT TO BE DONE IN JANUARY
Quite a big bit, Alexis Sanchez. Mourinho has persuaded the suits at Old Trafford to break the bank on a 29-year-old whose attitude has been questionable this season. But world-class players don’t often become available in January and United are making a massive statement about their power if they win the race to Sanchez
FIXTURES COMING UP
After two tough games at Burnley and Spurs, United will be confident of maximum points against Huddersfield – though they lost at the John Smiths – and Newcastle, before two humdingers at Old Trafford against Chelsea and Liverpool, with a trip to Crystal Palace sandwiched in between
VERDICT
It’s never felt comfortable for United this season with fans questioning £75million striker Romelu Lukaku and Paul Pogba absent through injury and suspension. Yet they’ve lost only three league games this season and you can’t see someone as experienced – and successful – as Mourinho lousing it up now
LIVERPOOL
3rd with 47 points (+26)
RECENT FORM
Unbeaten in 18 games in all competitions since being thumped 4-1 at Spurs, and victories in their last five including the notable scalps of Everton and Manchester City
WHY WILL THEY MAKE THE TOP FOUR?
Did you their game against Manchester City on Sunday? Even without Phillippe Coutinho, Liverpool can score goals in clusters like no other team in the country; the front-three of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mo Salah are unplayable at times, backed up by bags of energy from midfield
WHY THEY WON’T
Jurgen Klopp can’t, or won’t, find a way of shutting up shop to grind out results and that goals against column could be costly. Simon Mignolet has had his critics in goal but it’s still a big risk to change him for Loris Karius who is unproven at either Premier League or Champions League level
Roberto Firmino celebrates his brilliant goal in Liverpool’s memorable 4-3 win over City
ANY BUSINESS TO BE DONE IN JANUARY?
Klopp certainly has the financial power having sold Coutinho for £145million. He prefers to wait for the right target that spend of the first one – the long-term pursuit of Virgil van Dijk underlines that – so he may keep his money for the summer unless someone like Monaco’s Thomas Lemar becomes available.
FIXTURES COMING UP
Swansea, Huddersfield and West Brom won’t hold many fears for Liverpool fans in the next three games, though Spurs and a trip to Southampton after that look harder. A date at Old Trafford to face Manchester United on March 18 looms large.
VERDICT
If Mourinho gains success by ensuring his team concedes less than the opposition, Klopp wants them to score more. Both methods are working at the moment and should produce the same outcome – a top four finish
CHELSEA
4th with 47 points (+25)
RECENT FORM
Chelsea haven’t lost in their last 10 games in all competitions but that only tells half the story – their last three games have all been 0-0. Not inspiring.
WHY WILL THEY MAKE THE TOP FOUR?
Antonio Conte’s tried and trusted system with a world-class goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois behind three excellent central defenders and two wing-backs makes them very tough to break down. Cesar Azpilicueta and Marcos Alonso for example fit the plan perfectly.
WHY THEY WON’T
Too many of their stellar attacking players are out of form at the moment, most notably Alvaro Morata who has scored only two in 10 matches. Eden Hazard is also playing like a man who wants to be at Real Madrid next season
Eden Hazard will be crucial to Chelsea’s chances of securing a place in the Champions League
ANY BUSINESS LEFT TO BE DONE IN JANUARY
The attempt to hijack the Alexis Sanchez deal hints that Chelsea feel they may lose Hazard at some point. Ross Barkley has already arrived and his goals may be key when he starts playing
FIXTURES COMING UP
Chelsea will target maximum points against Brighton, Bournemouth, Watford and West Brom. After that, it’s Mourinho v Conte at Old Trafford – the visitors will probably settle for a point there.
VERDICT
Chelsea fans will be worried about their prospects, particularly with Conte’s long-term future also uncertain. And yet he has developed a pattern of play that has consistently got results and you still feel that will just get them over the line.
TOTTENHAM
5th with 44 points (+25)
RECENT FORM
Spurs haven’t lost since well before the Christmas decorations went up, November 28 to be precise, 11 matches ago. Their last five Premier League matches at Wembley have yielded 17 goals for Mauricio Pochettino’s men – the curse is well and truly over
WHY WILL THEY MAKE THE TOP FOUR
They’ve got the most consistent goalscorer in the country, Harry Kane, who has recently joined Alan Shearer and Thierry Henry as the only players to hit 20 Premier League goals in three consecutive seasons. Dele Alli, Son Heung-Min and Christian Eriksen aren’t bad either
WHY THEY WON’T
Pochettino may feel it unfair but there is a perception that Tottenham’s uber-energetic style leaves them fatigued towards the end of the season, and they also have the Champions League and FA Cup to contend with.
England and Tottenham forward Harry Kane has already netted 20 league goals this season
ANY BUSINESS LEFT TO BE DONE IN JANUARY?
Spurs have not been linked with anyone strongly but Toby Alderweireld will feel like a new signing when he returns from a hamstring injury, probably next month. Erik Lamela, Victor Wanyama, Danny Rose, Harry Winks and Mousa Dembele will also have a part to play after injury issues
FIXTURES COMING UP
Very tough. After Sunday’s trip to Southampton, not easy in itself, Tottenham have a triple-whammy; Manchester United, Liverpool and Arsenal. They also go to Chelsea on March 31 in what could be the single-most important fixture determining who finishes in the top four
VERDICT
You do wonder if Tottenham’s cup exertions might make that little bit of difference when it comes to the top four. Simply because they use so much energy every time they play. Then again, Spurs fans might sacrifice the Champions League next season for having a trophy in the cabinet.
ARSENAL
6th with 39 points (+11)
RECENT FORM
Arsenal have won only two of their last nine Premier League games. Five have been draws which is not good enough given the standards set by the rest of the Big Six. Only three away wins all season.
WHY WILL THEY MAKE THE TOP FOUR
Arsene Wenger teams have a habit of finishing strongly which is why they were able to celebrate St Totteringham’s Day for so long. They must also hope that once the Alexis Sanchez saga is over, it’ll improve team harmony and concentrate minds.
WHY THEY WON’T
A glance at the league table will tell you. Arsenal are off the pace points-wise and there is nothing in recent performances to suggest they can overhaul the gap. Their best players – Sanchez, Mesut Ozil, Laurent Koscienly – were all absent against Bournemouth, and the replacements aren’t up to scratch. There looks a lack of leadership and organisation.
Jack Wilshere has returned to the first-team fold for Arsenal but they currently sit sixth
ANY BUSINESS LEFT TO BE DONE IN JANUARY
Arsene Wenger appears to have recognised the squad needs a major transfusion of new blood, sooner rather than later. The best-case scenario is that Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Malcolm all sign; and Ozil, Sanchez and Jack Wilshere all stay.
FIXTURES COMING UP
Nothing less than maximum points against Crystal Palace, Swansea and Everton in the next three league games will do. And they can’t afford to lose the north London derby at Spurs after that.
VERDICT
Realistically, Arsenal’s best chance of qualifying for the Champions League could be to win the Europa League, as Manchester United did last season. The top-four looks a long way off given their weaknesses compared to their rivals.
Any of these clubs can also qualify for the Champions League by winning one of the two major European competitions this season.
Ironically, if Spurs and Arsenal finish fifth and sixth for example, but win the Champions League and Europa League, the team finishing fourth in the Premier League will miss out because Uefa won’t allow more than five teams from one association in Europe’s premier club competition