Hezbollah said Wednesday it had fired a ballistic missile targeting Israeli spy agency Mossad’s headquarters near Tel Aviv as its fighters prepare for a possible ground war with the IDF in Lebanon. It is the first time the group has claimed a ballistic missile strike since its nearly year-long battle with Israel began after Hamas carried out its October 7 attack.
‘The Islamic Resistance launched a ‘Qader 1′ ballistic missile at 6:30 am (0330 GMT) on Wednesday, targeting the Mossad headquarters in the outskirts of Tel Aviv,’ Hezbollah said in a statement. ‘This headquarters is responsible for the assassination of leaders and the explosion of pagers and wireless devices,’ it added, referring to attacks last week that killed scores in Lebanon, including a top commander.
Israel said its air defences had shot down a Hezbollah missile after sirens sounded in Tel Aviv. No casualties were reported. The ballistic missile launch comes hours after Israel said it had killed Ibrahim Qubaisi – another top Hezbollah commander and director of the group’s missile and rocket unit – in a strike on Beirut on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Iraq and Jordan condemned Israel’s ‘aggression’ against Lebanon this morning, warning that it is ‘pushing the region towards all-out war’.
Israel this morning continued its campaign of near-round-the-clock strikes on Hezbollah targets across southern and eastern Lebanon, which have killed 569 people and wounded more than 1,800 since Monday, according to Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said the attacks had weakened Hezbollah and would continue. Hezbollah ‘has suffered a sequence of blows to its command and control, its fighters, and the means to fight. These are all severe blows,’ he told Israeli troops. But now fears are growing that the IDF could launch an armed incursion across the border in an attempt to create a ‘buffer zone’ by forcing Hezbollah fighters further north of the border.
Israel last week declared that securing the northern territories so displaced Israelis can return to their homes became a formal goal of its war effort, but m ilitary spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari has refused to give a timeline for the ongoing operation. Given the efficacy of its missile, drone and airstrikes on Hezbollah targets to this point, the IDF may opt to continue in this vein, aiming to degrade the Lebanese group’s military capabilities and supply routes in the east and south of Lebanon without risking soldiers on the ground.
Former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed added that the evacuation of tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians from their homes has the additional advantage of ramping internal pressure on Hezbollah and Lebanese authorities. ‘Israel last week conducted a successful airstrike that eliminated the upper echelon of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force,’ he said. ‘Now, Israel has begun utilising intelligence developed over the last 18 years to strike at Hezbollah’s weapon caches, many of which have been concealed in residential homes. For Iran and Hezbollah, the mass exodus of families from southern Lebanon to the north poses a growing threat of civil unrest that could undermine Hezbollah’s influence and, by extension, Tehran’s control over Lebanon.’
However, much like Hamas, Hezbollah has developed an intricate web of underground tunnels and is deeply entrenched in towns and cities across southern Lebanon. The IDF will never be able to guarantee a total eradication of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces and military capabilities close to the border by airstrikes alone. And Hezbollah has an extensive stockpile of missiles and rockets which in theory could threaten air force planes and overwhelm Israeli air defences if fired en-masse.
In the absence of a ceasefire deal and a cessation of hostilities, the IDF may turn to a limited ground operation to force its foe away from the border and guarantee the security of settlements in northern Israel. Miri Eisen, a senior fellow at Israel’s International Institute for Counter-Terrorism at Reichman University and former IDF Colonel, said a limited ground incursion could be ordered to ensure Hezbollah can not carry out anything similar to Hamas’s October 7 attack. ‘I do think that there’s the possibility of a ground incursion because in the end we need to move the Hezbollah forces (away from the border),’ she said.
The mouth of the Litani River, often used as a rough marker to illustrate a theoretical buffer zone, is 18 miles from the border, but in some places comes within two miles of Israeli-controlled territory. Major Moshiko Giat, an IDF special forces soldier with combat experience in Israel’s 2006 war with Lebanon, told the Telegraph he believes such a buffer zone would be roughly six to 12 miles deep. But even a limited operation such as this would constitute a major military undertaking – and carries significant risks.
Drawing from the strategy used in previous conflicts, such an operation would likely involve several IDF divisions, with estimates suggesting around 10,000 to 30,000 troops would be needed to clear the area and establish a clear buffer zone. Hezbollah’s fighting force, which measures between 25,000 and 50,000 according to various Israeli and US estimates, has honed its tactics through decades of conflict – including their successful resistance against Israeli forces during the 2006 war in which Major Giat fought.
Hezbollah boasts a range of anti-tank and anti-air systems, dozens of tanks and armoured vehicles, and its fighters are adept at guerrilla warfare, intimately familiar with the terrain, and would enjoy the advantage of highly fortified positions. Amal Saad, a Lebanese researcher on Hezbollah who is based at Cardiff University, said of the group: ‘It is extremely capable – and I would say more effective than Israel – when it comes to ground war, underground offensive, and we’ve seen this historically, particularly in 2006,’ she said.
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