Alarm bells for Boris as huge poll finds Labour would reclaim Red Wall in an election – and the PM would lose his OWN seat
- Massive poll produced seat-by-seat predictions for the results of an election
- Labour was on track to win back most of the Red Wall seats Tories took in 2019
- The PM predicted to lose his own seat as the Conservative majority wiped out
Boris Johnson faces losing most of the ‘Red Wall’ seats that delivered his historic election victory a year ago, according to a massive poll.
The PM’s own constituency also looks to be on the line as Labour makes a comeback, with the government struggling to contain the coronavirus crisis.
The research, carried out by Focaldata, will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street after a tumultuous first year in power – although there is still a long way to go until the next Westminster showdown.
The firm surveyed more than 22,000 people over the course of December, when Christmas ‘bubbles’ were dramatically scaled back due to the mutant Covid variant and ministers were fighting to strike a deal with the EU.
It used an MRP method, which matches the life characteristics of people polled to the profiles of individual constituencies in order to produce detailed results in a theoretical election.
The big MRP poll carried out by Focaldata will set alarm bells ringing in Downing Street after a tumultuous first year in power
The technique is considered more accurate than traditional surveys, that cannot account for local variations.
The outcome, published in the Sunday Times, indicated that neither the Conservatives nor Labour are in a position to win an outright majority.
The Tories would lose 81 seats, wiping out the 80-strong majority Mr Johnson secured in December 2019, and leaving them with 284 seats.
Labour would win 282, an increase of 82. That would include 41 seats in the north of England, Midlands and Wales that voted Labour in 2017 before turning blue in 2019.
Labour is also predicted to win five London seats from the Conservatives – Chingford and Wood Green, Chipping Barnet, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon, and Kensington.
The Conservatives clung on to just eight of the 43 ‘Red Wall’ seats that they won at last year’s general election — Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Colne Valley, Dudley North, Great Grimsby, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Scunthorpe, and Sedgefield.
The poll suggested Mr Johnson would lose his own Uxbridge and Ruislip South constituency, where he is defending a majority of 7,200.
Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP was found to be on track to win 57 of the 59 seats in Scotland, potentially putting a Labour-SNP alliance on the cards.
However, the Liberal Democrats look set for disaster, with the results showing they would secure just two seats – down from 11. The party won 62 seats in 2005, before Nick Clegg agreed to enter coalition with the Tories and Brexit happened.
The results suggest Sir Keir Starmer (pictured last week) would win 282 seats, an increase of 82, and be in a position to form an alliance with the SNP to govern
Justin Ibbett, founder of Focaldata, said: ‘One year on from their stunning general election triumph, it is clear that the Conservatives already have a lot of work to do if they are to replicate their 2019 success in future elections.
‘The SNP would appear to be the real winners. Not only do they win all but two Scottish constituencies, but the most likely outcome is a Labour-SNP coalition government, which would have an overall majority of just over 20 seats.’
Focaldata carried out an MRP poll for the Conservatives during last year’s general election. The new poll of 22,186 voters was conducted between December 4 and 29.