One of Australia’s top doctors believes the nation’s healthcare systems are not adequately prepared to cope with an influx of Covid patients once lockdowns are scrapped later this year.
With hospitals in Covid-ravaged Sydney and Melbourne already under pressure, Australian Medical Association President Dr Omar Khorshid said the Federal Government must focus on four key areas: funding, capacity, staff and processes.
Under Scott Morrison’s re-opening plan agreed by all state and territory leaders, lockdowns become ‘less likely’ when 70 per cent of over 16s are fully jabbed and only ‘highly targeted’ when 80 per cent are vaccinated.
Australian governments are being urged to urgently prepare the nation’s healthcare system. Pictured: Ambulances lined up at Westmead Hospital in Sydney’s west
Doherty Institute modelling, on which the plan is based, predicts there would be 12,337 hospitalisations and 1,457 deaths in six months with a 70 per cent vaccination rate and partially successful testing and tracing.
In that scenario, there would be 2,733 ICU admissions which would take up 40 per cent of Australia’s surge capacity of 7,000 ICU beds.
With optimal testing and tracing these figures would come down to just 88 hospitalisations, 21 ICU admissions and 13 deaths nationally.
But in an ABC radio interview on Thursday morning, Dr Khorshid said the Morrison Government should be planning for a worst case scenario where hospitals may be overwhelmed.
‘We want the plan for opening up to look at hospital capacity and recognise that will be the biggest constraint,’ he said before listing his four concerns.
‘Number one, money. Because delivering healthcare in a Covid outbreak will be more expensive,’ he said.
‘Number two, capacity. Have we got enough hospitals, have we got the right type of hospitals, have we got enough ICU beds?
‘Number three, staff. What’s your plan for staff, how do we get more given that we don’t have open borders to bring in people from overseas?’
Dr Khorshid said the fourth issue of processes included setting guidelines on when and for how long staff should isolate after being exposed to Covid.
A nurse takes a man’s information before administering the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine in Melbourne. There are fears off isolation requirements causing health staff shortages
Royal Melbourne Hospital has been left severely short staffed after hundreds of workers were ordered to isolate due to an outbreak of 50 infections sparked by a Covid-positive patient from Shepparton in Victoria’s north.
‘Number four, processes. Furloughing staff, approaches to Covid. How do you run a general practice when people want to bring their child in with a cough or a cold or are concerned it could be Covid,’ Dr Khorshid said.
‘Are GPs going to wear full PPE every day, are they going to run their clinics like a Covid clinic every day?
‘There’s a whole lot of process planning that hasn’t been done, and that’s something that we’re calling for.’
The Morrison government’s 2021-22 budget sets out a record $121.4 billion healthcare spend, taking total Covid spending commitments to $25 billion since March 2020.
In an ABC radio interview on Tuesday, Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt listed the key hospital preparations that were already under way.
He said Australia has 7,500 ventilators available and only 40 are being used.
Dr Omar Khorshid (pictured) said governments should be planning for the worst case scenario where hospitals are overwhelmed
On staff shortages, Mr Hunt said the government was ‘making sure that we have additional staff training [and] that we had additional staff coming into the system, returning nurses and others’.
‘We’re both preparing the system and vaccinating at record levels,’ he said.
Daily Mail Australia has contacted Mr Hunt’s office for further comment.
It comes after Westmead Hospital – one of Sydney’s biggest – declared a ‘yellow emergency’ as it struggles under the weight of growing Covid-19 cases in the city’s west.
On Tuesday the hospital reduced ambulance arrivals for Covid-19 patients for a 24-hour period and transferred several critical patients to other Sydney metropolitan hospitals.
There are currently 698 Covid-19 cases admitted to hospital in NSW, with 116 people in intensive care, 43 of whom require ventilation.
NSW Health says it currently manages about 500 intensive care beds but has a surge capacity of about 2000 when required.
Westmead Hospital – one of Sydney’s biggest – declared a ‘yellow emergency’ on Tuesday