Antibiotic resistance will kill MILLIONS of people by 2050

Millions of people will die of antibiotic-resistant infections in the next three decades, a report has warned.

Bacterial infections too strong to be cured by medicine will take the lives of nearly two-and-a-half million people in the UK, US, Europe and Australia by 2050.

Babies, young children and elderly people will be the most likely to die because their immune systems are weaker.

Global health experts say hospital hygiene must improve and people must cut down on antibiotics or there will be ‘disastrous consequences’ in the Western world.

More than 90,000 Brits could die from once-treatable ‘superbugs’, alongside a devastating death toll of more than 1million people in the US.

A league table of developed countries has revealed which nations will be hit hardest, with the US suffering by far the most, followed by Italy, France and Poland.

The United States is expected to have almost as many deaths (1.06million) as the entire of Europe  (1.3million) caused by antibiotic resistant infections between 2015 and 2050 – and a total of 2.4million people are predicted to die as a result of failing medicines in the US, Europe and Australia in that time

Research by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has predicted the global impact of antibiotics becoming less and less effective.

Some 2,487,358 people are expected to die of antibiotic-resistant infections in 33 countries around the world between 2015 and 2050.

With a predicted 1,064,087 deaths, the US is expected to suffer more than twice as much as the second ranked country, Italy, with 456,486.

The United Kingdom has the sixth highest death toll, with 90,045, and Australia 18th with 10,430.

Meanwhile, Iceland – which has a population smaller than Bristol’s – will suffer only 40 deaths because of antibiotic resistance, also known as antimicrobial resistance.

‘Even small cuts in the kitchen, minor surgery or diseases like pneumonia could become life-threatening,’ the OECD’s report said.

10 COUNTRIES WITH THE MOST DEATHS FROM ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT INFECTION (2015-2050 estimates)

  1. United States (1,064,087)
  2. Italy (456,486)
  3. France (238,004)
  4. Poland (98,904)
  5. Germany (92,306)
  6. United Kingdom (90,045)
  7. Spain (77,699)
  8. Greece (69,774)
  9. Romania (59,487)
  10. Portugal (49,443) 

10 COUNTRIES WITH THE FEWEST DEATHS FROM ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT INFECTION (2015-2050 estimates)

  1. Iceland (40)
  2. Estonia (756)
  3. Luxembourg (793)
  4. Malta (1,203)
  5. Latvia (1,763)
  6. Cyprus (2,676)
  7. Norway (2,773)
  8. Finland (3,786)
  9. Lithuania (3,869)
  10. Slovenia (3,979) 

Experts think the progress of antibiotic resistant infections, such as MRSA and some strains of gonorrhoea, will speed up to four to seven times its current rate.

‘Such high resistance rates in health care systems, which are already weakened by constrained budgets, will create the conditions for an enormous death toll that will be mainly borne by new-borns, very young children and the elderly,’ the report added.

And to add insult to injury, many infections are expected to become resistant to the backup antibiotics that are used when normal medicines don’t work.

BRITAIN WILL BE HIT HARDER THAN MOST BY DRUG RESISTANCE 

Britain is set to be hit harder than other countries by antibiotic superbugs because it already has higher rates of infection, the OECD report has revealed.

In a league table of susceptibility to superbug infections – separate from the predicted death tolls – the UK ranks seventh out of 33 nations. 

The more antibiotics are used, the stronger superbugs become.

Yet British doctors are continuing to give out these crucial antibiotics for minor conditions against which they do not even work.

Of the 33 nations, only Turkey, the US, Japan, Mexico, Poland and South Korea record more cases of infections which are becoming resistant to antibiotics.

The authors stressed that antibiotic resistance is currently controlled better in Britain than in other countries – but if the UK loses control of resistance rates, the problem could quickly balloon.

Mark Pearson, deputy director of employment, labour and social affairs at the OECD, said: ‘These infections are the sort that we need to be scared about. 

‘In the worst case scenario we would start losing access to modern medicine, operations such as hip replacements would be very difficult.

‘You would start worrying when you even got a little cut in the garden.’  

Dr Susan Hopkins, deputy director for PHE’s National Infection Service, added: ‘In order to tackle antibiotic resistance we need to preserve antibiotics for when we really need them.’ 

‘These are antibiotics that as far as possible we don’t want to use because we want these as back up,’ said the OECD’s health lead, Michele Cecchini.

‘Essentially, we are using more when we should use less and we are running out of our best options in case of emergency.’

People are already dying of infections which were once easily curable – deaths in Europe tripled from 11,000 in 2007 to around 33,000 in 2015, according to separate research.

Antibiotic resistance is spiralling out of control because people are consuming more medications either when prescribed them by doctors, or because farm animals are fed them and they pass through the food chain.

To stop the death toll rocketing in the coming decades, the OECD says countries must spend more money trying to tackle the threat of antibiotic resistance.

It already costs healthcare systems more money than flu, HIV or tuberculosis, but costs could rocket to $3.5billion (£2.6bn).

The OECD said the changes needed to avoid the catastrophe could cost governments as little as $2 (£1.52) per person.

Hygiene should be better in hospitals and clinics, and better testing should be used to check if infections are viral to avoid unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, officials said.

Mr Cecchini said these measures could reduce antibiotic resistance by as much as 75 per cent, adding ‘It would pay for itself in a few months and would produce substantial savings.’

Tim Jinks, head of the Wellcome Trust’s Drug-Resistant Infections Priority Programme, said: ‘This new OECD report offers important insight into how simple, cost-effective surveillance, prevention and control methods could save lives globally.

‘Drug-resistant superbugs are on the rise worldwide and represent a fundamental threat to global health and development.

‘This report provides yet further evidence that investing to tackle the problem now will save lives and deliver big pay-offs in the future.’        

THE PREDICTED DEATH TOLL OF ANTIBIOTIC RESISTANT INFECTIONS IN THE US, EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA BETWEEN 2015 AND 2050 
Country Number of deaths (2015-2050) Country Number of deaths (2015-2050)
United States 1,064,087 Australia 10,430
Italy 456,486 Croatia 10,352
France 238,004 Ireland 9,794
Poland 98,904 Netherlands 8,933
Germany 92,306 Sweden 6,453
United Kingdom 90,045 Denmark 4,742
Spain 77,699 Slovenia 3,979
Greece 69,774 Lithuania 3,869
Romania 59,487 Finland 3,786
Portugal 49,443 Norway 2,773
Hungary 22,830 Cyprus 2,676
Belgium 22,564 Latvia 1,763
Czech Republic 19,840 Malta 1,203
Slovakia 16,002 Luxembourg 793
Canada 14,546 Estonia 756
Bulgaria 11,685 Iceland 40
Austria 11,314 Source: OECD

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