Australia could completely eradicate coronavirus by the middle of June if it stays in lockdown another two months, scientists predict.
Travel bans, closed borders, and business shutdowns have slashed the number of new cases a day by up to 90 per cent in less than a month.
The country only recorded 49 new cases on Tuesday, raising the total to 6,415 with 62 deaths, down from the worst day of 460 on March 28.
Stage three restrictions on gatherings and leaving the house brought in on March 31 are expected to crush the curve further over the rest of April.
Modelling from the Universities of Sydney (orange) and Melbourne (green) shows Australia can get to zero new cases within 90 days of lockdown. The current trend in recorded cases (yellow) is already ahead of this
Scenes like this one in Melbourne where a family is told to go home from St Kilda beach under stage thee lockdown need to continue for another two months
Australia’s measures have been so successful that Prime Minister Scott Morrison and state premiers are considering easing them as soon as next month.
However, a collection of scientists believe Australia’s cases could be reduced to zero if the restrictions are kept in place another two months.
Analysis by the Grattan Institute concluded that the country would not need a tougher lockdown to achieve this, just extending stage three a little longer.
‘A successful elimination strategy would give most Australians a good chance of resuming a near-normal life well before the end of the year,’ authors Stephen Duckett and Jonathan Nolan wrote.
They pointed to separate recent modelling by two Australian predicting a 90-day lockdown would result in no new cases by mid to late-June.
Dr Jason Thompson at the University of Melbourne said his modelling showed coronavirus would be eradicated by June 19 on average.
His model assumed 85 per cent of Australians followed social distancing rules 85 per cent of the time and 90 per cent of those told to self-isolate did so.
Analysis by the Grattan Institute of these models concluded that the country would not need a tougher lockdown to achieve this, just extending stage three a little longer
Dr Jason Thompson at the University of Melbourne said his modelling showed coronavirus would be eradicated by June 19 on average
James Jansson at the University of Sydney came to the same conclusion, writing that if Australia tried to eliminate the virus, the ‘pain would be measured in months, rather than years’.
‘This can give both business and citizens the strength and determination to stick to the lockdown and be ready to exit the other side with all pistons firing,’ he wrote.
Dr Ducket and Dr Nolan said this strategy was being employed in New Zealand with its even harsher lockdown with great results – and Australia could do even better.
‘The prospect of 90 days of stage three restrictions is daunting, but there are good reasons to believe we could bring cases down to zero earlier than that,’ they wrote.
The pair wrote that Australia’s new cases have been halving every 4.2 days for the past week, far less than the 16 days employed by the models.
‘Even if that trend slows over the next few weeks, there’s a real prospect that many states could begin easing spatial distancing as early as May, with a clear plan in place by Anzac Day,’ they wrote.
Knocking out that last few cases and preventing them from starting new outbreaks would be the hardest part, requiring every patient to be locked down fast.
Australia is already gearing up for this by ramping up contact tracing abilities with an army of health workers tracking down everyone an infected person had contact with.
Australia has made significant progress in the fight against coronavirus, with a clear flattening of the curve on the graph that measures the daily infection rate
Manly Beach in Sydney is shut down to stop the spread of coronavirus. Big beaches could be reopened soon but scientists argue they should stay shut another 2 months
Knocking out that last few cases and preventing them from starting new outbreaks would be the hardest part, requiring every patient to be locked down fast. Testing centres like this one in Bondi will be a key part of that effort
The government is also floating the idea of digital tracking of the individual’s movement via mobile phones, as used in Singapore and Taiwan.
The app, which will be optional, would require at least 40 per cent of the population to be on board for it to be effective, according to the ABC.
However, the trade off for Australia is that international travel would be off limits for many months to come as coronavirus rampages through the rest of the world.
Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham on Tuesday warned Christmas holidays could have to be domestic with the borders staying closed into next year.
Even if Australia eradicates the virus, countries in Europe and North America still have tens of thousands of cases with thousands of deaths a day.
With so few infections, we would have no herd immunity so infected travellers could easily unleash a new outbreak when they arrived.
Dr Thompson said this blow could be softened by requiring travellers to be certified virus-free before arriving, quarantined as they are now, or both.
‘Wouldn’t we all prefer to at least have unrestricted movement within our own country in the meantime?’ he wrote.
Borders could also be opened to individual countries as they got the virus under control, such as New Zealand which is on track to eradicate it.
Grattan Institute said this strategy was being employed in New Zealand with its even harsher lockdown with great results – and Australia could do even better
Overseas travel would be off limits for some time, but could be relaxed if arrivals were quarantined in hotels, like this woman at Sofitel Wentworth in Sydney
Australia appears to not be pursuing the elimination strategy, instead trying to flatten the curve enough to keep pressure off hospitals.
Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said the country’s peak of cases could be as late as November based on current modelling.
Under this suppression method, stage three restrictions could be relaxed within weeks but others may have to remain for far longer.
‘Unless herd immunity is achieved, a significant proportion of the community will continue to be susceptible and illness and death will result, albeit at a lesser rate than in the ‘let it rip’ scenarios,’ Dr Thompson wrote.
‘Significant social and economic restrictions will still need to continue for an unknown duration.’
State and federal leaders will meet on Thursday to discuss when restrictions on travel and gatherings of people can be relaxed.
Mr Morrison has stressed that a premature relaxation of all restrictions risked a rise in infections, but said the government was ready to discuss plans to gradually re-open the economy.
‘That’s what we’re working on as a National Cabinet,’ he said.
‘We will be considering further plans about how we can chart that way back to get the economy operating at a much higher level than it is now so it can support people’s incomes.’