Australia could end up being cut off from the rest of the world for five years if we don’t accept some Covid-19 cases and deaths, a leading disease expert has warned.
ANU Professor Peter Collignon said the nation would become like hermit kingdom North Korea where residents are never allowed to leave if our attitude to the virus doesn’t change.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is trying to convince cautious premiers such as Mark McGowan and Annastacia Palaszczuk that it will be OK to have Covid spreading in the community once the most vulnerable are vaccinated.
ANU Professor Peter Collignon said the nation would become like hermit kingdom North Korea if we don’t accept cases of Covid-19. Pictured: The 109th birth anniversary of state founder Kim Il Sung in North Korea last week
Australians are only allowed to fly to New Zealand. Pictured: Passengers queue for check-in at Sydney Airport on Monday
He has been touting a home quarantine system as a way to get international travel up and running again but premiers who have built popularity by keeping the virus out of their states are reluctant.
Professor Collignon has warned that if Mr Morrison fails to convince them – and the public – to accept Covid cases then the nation will be left behind while comparable countries relax international travel restrictions.
‘Eventually we’re going to have to accept some Covid cases,’ he told Daily Mail Australia on Tuesday.
‘Unless we want borders closed for the next four to five years. That’s how long it’s going to take for the world to get on top of this.’
Professor Collignon said that in some ways Australia is a victim of its own success because people are terrified of Covid and don’t want a single case in the country.
‘There are some people who want to keep cases to zero and keep the borders closed – it seems the majority.
‘But I can’t see how that’s sustainable – you would turn into a nation like North Korea,’ he said.
‘A lot of Australians have friends and family overseas. You can’t ban travel forever, I don’t think that’s sustainable for social and economic reasons,’ he added.
New Zealand travelers embrace at Sydney International Airport. Australians can travel to New Zealand but no-where else
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is trying to convince cautious premiers such as Mark McGowan and Annastacia Palaszczuk that it will be OK to have Covid spreading in the community
At the last census in 2016, half of Australians were either born overseas or had at least one parent who was born outside the country.
Mr Morrison has said he wants the nation to treat Covid like flu once vaccinations dramatically reduce the risk of severe disease and deaths.
‘If we want to treat Covid like the flu, then we have to have the same tolerance for Covid as we have for the flu,’ he told The West Live podcast last week.
‘If the international borders were lifted, there would be cases and we’d have to be confident and comfortable that that would be in Australia’s interest’.
Professor Collignon said if Australians want to rejoin the world then they should be prepared to accept a similar number of Covid deaths as flu deaths annually.
He pointed out that in 2017 – which was a bad year for flu – 1,255 people died of influenza and that was acceptable to most people.
‘I expect that Covid will become a seasonal respiratory virus like flu which isn’t ideal but you can have reasonable travel and fewer restrictions on your movement,’ he said.
The infectious diseases expert warned that Australia cannot keep cases to zero even if everyone in the country got vaccinated.
‘There is an expectation that vaccines are 100 per cent effective and we will keep transmission to zero – but this is not the case,’ he said.
‘Vaccines don’t make the risk zero but we really markedly decrease the risk.’
Last month AstraZeneca announced test results which found the vaccine was 76 per cent effective at stopping someone from catching Covid-19 and 100 per cent effective at stopping severe disease.
A recent Pfizer study found its jab is 91.3 per cent effective at stopping Covid and 100 per cent effective in preventing severe disease.
Passengers wearing face masks are met by flight crew as they board Qantas flight QF143 bound for Auckland from Sydney
These figures mean that Australia is bound to see transmission and therefore deaths because not everyone will agree to take the jab.
Australian Medical Association president Omar Khorshid made this point last week when he said: ‘We don’t have Covid now, but Covid is coming.
‘We cannot keep this virus out of Australia forever unless we become a true island nation with no travel,’ he told ABC radio.
Mr Morrison has insisted that he will not rush opening the borders and will wait at least until the most vulnerable Australians have been offered a vaccine before thinking about introducing a home quarantine system.
Professor Collignon also said it’s still too early and feared that not enough Aussies will have had their jab by winter.
‘I worry about this coming winter. We need to strive to get the over 70s vaccinated and that will markedly decrease death rate, he said.
‘What we need to do is have those most at risk of dying have their Covid vaccine’.
On Tuesday, Queensland leader Annastacia Palaszczuk became the latest to reject the idea of home quarantine, which could allow Australians to go overseas without costly and uncomfortable hotel isolation.
Passengers at Sydney Airport in February. Mr Morrison has said the total re-opening of Australia’s borders was still some way off
‘I do have concerns, we’ve got the pandemic raging around countries at the moment,’ she told Nine’s Today show on Tuesday morning.
Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan has said he would need ‘a lot of convincing’ to adopt home quarantine and Victorian Health Minister Martin Foley said the state has ‘no plans’ to introduce it but would consider a proposal backed by medical advice.
In contrast, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian last week called home quarantine a ‘sensible suggestion’ and backed Mr Morrison’s idea.
The prime minister said any home quarantine plan could only be introduced once the vaccine rollout has progressed much further.
‘As I said yesterday, that is many months away from being achieved,’ he said on Monday.
‘We still over the next few months be working through those priority groups of vaccinations.’
Australians have been banned from going overseas without an exemption since March 2020.
A travel bubble with New Zealand opened on Monday and the government is in talks with Singapore about a similar arrangement.