Australian disease experts call for coronavirus to be introduced to low-risk groups like children

Australia faces a daunting choice between ending lockdown and causing a spike in COVID-19 cases – or risking economic catastrophe by keeping the strict measures in place.

That’s the opinion of infectious disease and economic experts, some who are calling for coronavirus restrictions to be eased to allow places such as beaches and schools to re-open.

But those opinions go against the ideas of some of Australia’s top scientists, who say  relaxing restrictions too soon could be disastrous and lead to potential failure of the health system.  

A security guard stands outside a deserted St Mary’s Cathedral in Sydney where no Easter services were held for people to attend on April 12. Danish political scientist Dr Bjorn Lomborg has said Australia could benefit from following the lead of Sweden’s relaxed social distancing measures

Danish political scientist and economist Dr Bjorn Lomborg said the catastrophic economic impact of lockdown measures in Australia was not worth the pain given a ‘second wave’ of infections would likely arise in the coming months.

‘The reality is, if we just want to stop coronavirus in its tracks, we have to shut down society almost entirely, and in the long run, that is not a sustainable solution,’ he told 60 Minutes.

HOW DOES IMMUNITY TO COVID-19 WORK? 

Scientists haven’t yet worked out how immunity for the new strain of coronavirus works.

But if similar to other coronaviruses, once a person is recovered they could be immune for anywhere between 18 months and two years.

This means a recovered patient can go back outside.

But if someone has health issues or is elderly, they are still vulnerable until a vaccine is produced.

‘We need to have the conversation, how much should we tackle corona, versus how much should we avoid totally destroying the economy?    

‘At some point, we actually need to say “this is enough. If we go further, we’re going to damage the economy more than the few extra people we’re going to save”.’  

Dr Lomborg, the president of a think tank called the Copenhagen Consensus Center, compared the coronavirus situation in Australia to the reduction of speed limits on the roads.   

‘If you want to save everyone who dies in traffic, you should just take it down to five kilometres an hour,’ he said. 

‘Nobody would die. But of course, the point is, you don’t want to do that because it also has huge social ramifications.’

Dr Lomborg said Sweden’s middle-ground measures to stem the coronavirus’ spread were those Australia should emulate to avoid economic disaster.

The European country is allowing domestic flights to continue, while restaurants and schools remain open.

By slowly spreading the virus through the community, the Scandinavian nation’s health officials hope to achieve herd immunity throughout the population.   

Herd immunity occurs when enough people are immune to the coronavirus through exposure to the illness, or via a vaccine.

Dr Lomborg (pictured) has said Australia faces a difficult balancing act of weighing up saving lives from the coronavirus with facing economic catastrophe

Australia’s daily infection rate has dropped significantly since the imposition of strict travel bans and social distancing measures

People sit outside in the sun in central Stockholm in Sweden on Saturday. The Danish leading political scientist has encouraged Australia to emulate Sweden’s middle-ground measures to stem the coronavirus’ spread

Disease modeller Professor Emma McBryde and Australian National University microbiology expert Professor Collignon also suggested low-risk demographics like children could be used to spread the virus slowly and improve immunity.

They said evidence suggested children were less vulnerable to the virus.

‘If we do everything we possibly can to make sure that no-one dies from coronavirus, people are going to start dying from other things,’ Professor McBryde said.

‘Children could be the key to getting out of lockdown.’  

Professor Collignon added: ‘All the available evidence around the world is children under the age of 15 rarely get this [the virus] and rarely get complications.’ 

Lifeguards try to remove surfers in the water during the Easter long weekend at Bronte Beach in Sydney on Sunday

Pictured: Children play at a childcare centre in Helensburgh south of Sydney on April 3.  ‘Children could be the key to getting out of lockdown,’ disease modeller Professor McBryde said

Chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said last month – as Prime Minister Scott Morrison refused to close schools – children appeared to be less susceptible to COVID-19.

The Australian government though has remained steadfast in the belief herd immunity is not a path the country should be going down. 

‘If we attempt herd immunity we would end up with a very large number of people severely unwell and a very large number of people would die so we’re not going down a herd immunity approach in Australia,’ Deputy Chief Medical officer Michael Kidd told ABC News Radio on Sunday.

But Professor Collignon has questioned the scientific benefit of confining Australians to their homes – rather than encouraging them to take in more fresh air outside.  

‘If you’re outside in the sunshine – and sunshine itself is a sterilising agent – I would think if you keep your two-metre rule, you’ll be safer there than inside,’ he said. 

‘Providing you are maintaining your social distancing and minimising the people you’re having close contact with, I can’t see how that is going to transmit much infection.’ 

CORONAVIRUS CASES IN AUSTRALIA: 6,325

New South Wales: 2,854

Victoria: 1,268

Queensland: 983

South Australia: 429

Western Australia: 517

Australian Capital Territory: 102

Tasmania: 144

Northern Territory: 28

TOTAL CASES:  6,325

RECOVERED: 3,338

DEAD: 59

Experts have already warned Australia’s tough social distancing measures will mean far fewer people are immune to the deadly bug. 

The tough enforced rules could prove to be a double-edged sword, with any relaxation of lockdown restrictions potentially creating a huge spike in cases, scientists have predicted.  

Overseas, in countries like the U.S – where nearly half-a-million people have been infected – lockdowns could end within just a few months, or even weeks.

This is because huge swathes of the population will have been struck down with the virus and either died or recovered, making them immune. 

But in Australia, not enough people will have been exposed to COVID-19 – meaning it could still prove fatal for the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions.  

Restrictions have seen the closure of parks, beaches, public BBQs (pictured on April 7 in Mollymook on NSW’s south coast)

Pictured: NSW Police ask people to move on while patrolling during the Easter long weekend at Bondi Beach in Sydney on Sunday

The situation has the potential to create a dangerous new social stratification in Australia, with healthy people allowed outside and the elderly trapped in their homes until a vaccine is produced. 

Paul Komesaroff, Professor of Medicine at Monash University, told Daily Mail Australia the Federal Government’s ‘responsible’ approach to the pandemic may be a mixed blessing.

‘In the UK and the United States – because of the irresponsibility of the political leaders – they missed the opportunity to impose restrictions early and huge numbers of people are getting the disease,’ he explained.

Australia has significantly fewer confirmed cases of COVID-19 than other countries

‘But it does mean that the peak is very, very sharp, and it may well be that the timeline for them is shorter than it will be for us. Ironically.’

Others, however, argue lockdown restrictions haven’t gone far enough.   

Professor Raina MacIntyre, the head of Biosecurity at the University of New South Wales’s Kirby Institute, wrote a paper together with three other scientists outlining the benefits of a short, sharp lockdown for Australia.

The scientists said Australia’s gradual approach to locking down the country, adding new restrictions on a rolling basis, was not enough.

A silent epidemic may be growing, driven by mild or asymptomatic infections of people who did not meet our testing criteria,’ the scientists wrote.

Travel bans have been the most successful element of Australia’s approach, but the gradual increase of social distancing and the failure to shut schools meant it was not enough.

‘It will leave us dealing with COVID-19 for much longer, with a slow trickle of new infections that keep feeding the epidemic,’ they wrote on the UNSW website.

‘What’s needed is a short, sharp lockdown for two to three incubation periods (four to six weeks), combined with scaled up testing capacity and expanded testing criteria.’

‘This strategy, similar to South Korea’s approach, would reduce the size of the epidemic substantially, spare the health system and give us a more manageable baseline from which to best protect Australia until a vaccine is available.’

They also said the measures do not have to last six months to 12 months – but only four to six weeks.

‘China has demonstrated the feasibility of a short lockdown followed by phased lifting of restrictions,’ they said.

A short, sharp lockdown of four to six weeks would enable Australia to control the epidemic quickly and get the numbers to a controllable baseline.

After that, the economic recovery can begin with the gradual lifting of restrictions.

‘The slow trickle approach, especially if schools remain open, may result in continued epidemic growth, potential failure of the health system, and a far longer road to recovery,’ they wrote.

Free kindergarten for 22,000 children: Queensland government vows to spend $17million to keep 465 centres across the state open 

 More than 20,000 children will have free access to community kindergartens across Queensland until June.

The Queensland government will spend $17million on the program to keep 465 centres across the state open for term 2, 2020.

‘This is great news for the 22,000 children that attend community kindergarten,’ Education Minister Grace Grace told media on Sunday.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk speaks during a press conference at Parliament House in Brisbane, Australia, 8 April

‘What this announcement means is that parents can now maintain and continue their enrollment in community kindergarten, because it will be free for term two,’ she said.

She said it means roughly 2,700 workers who are employed in community kindergarten centres will have work.

The move has been welcomed by the Queensland Catholic Education Commission’s Dr Lee-Anne Perry who said it was important for young learners to have continuity and stability.

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says a statement about schooling for term two would be made on Tuesday.

 

Read more at DailyMail.co.uk