Cases of the coronavirus could peak at 125,000 a day in Australia unless more drastic social distancing measures are implemented, health experts have warned.
University of Sydney associate professor Tim Newsome is urging the government to tighten its restrictions across the country to slow the rate of COVID-19 infections.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison announced the closure of all pubs, clubs, gyms and ‘non-essential’ gatherings on Sunday.
While the potential effects of the ‘Stage One’ restrictions won’t be known for nearly two weeks, infectious disease modellers say Australia could still record 125,000 cases a day at the peak of the crisis – even if the measures were successful.
Confirmed cases of the coronavirus could rise by 125,000 a day unless more action is taken to keep Australians isolated, health experts have warned (pictured: People waiting outside Royal Melbourne Hospital to be tested)
Prime Minister Scott Morrison addresses the media on the coronavirus pandemic on Sunday. Health experts are urging the government to put Australia into lockdown
‘I think what we’re seeing is very concerning,’ Prof Newsome told The Australian.
‘We’re looking very exponential at the moment. We are tracking in a way which could potentially overwhelm our health systems unless we start seeing effects from social distancing and more stringent measures.’
Professor Newsome said the government needs to confine people to their homes, except to get food or medicine.
The peak, which is believed to occur unless Australia goes into complete lockdown, is expected to reach levels where hospitals will be unable to cope
There are now a national total of 1,716 confirmed cases of coronavirus in Australia
He said with the current epidemic curve, cases would likely double every three days in the coming weeks.
They are currently doubling about every four days.
University of Melbourne epidemiologist Tony Blakely said if that trajectory were to continue, cases could rise by 500,000 per day within weeks.
But by analysing the impacts of the current social distancing measures, Professor Blakely said the spread of the virus would likely be reduced by the end of May.
At that point, at the pandemic’s peak, there would be 125,000 new cases a day, with 60 per cent of the population infected, Professor Blakely said.
Professor Blakely said based on that scenario, 165,000 Australians would need intensive care.
Hospitals would not be able to cope as the amount of people requiring intensive care could surpass the number of beds available, he said.
Meanwhile, thousands of Australians have been forced out of work by the new restrictions and were seen lining up outside Centrelink offices on Monday hoping to to lodge claims for unemployment benefits and emergency assistance.
On Monday, the prime minister vowed to continue to support the most vulnerable as he warned that many more would likely lose their jobs as a result of the pandemic.
‘The tests, hardships and sacrifices that will be placed on all of us, on our national character, will undoubtedly break our hearts on many occasions in the months ahead,’ he said as he addressed parliament.
‘But we must resolve today, as Australians, to come together and to pledge to each other across our nation that this coronavirus will not break our Australian spirit.
‘So, together, and with the rest of the world, we face this unprecedented challenge. A once in a hundred year event.
People queue for access to a Centrelink Service Centre in Sydney on Monday
The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus has surged to 1,716 in Australia on Monday. Nurses Tamzin Ingram and Skye Haagmans are pictured preparing for patients at the Covid-19 Clinic at the Mount Barker Hospital in Adelaide
‘A global health pandemic that has fast become an economic crisis, the likes of which we have not seen since the Great Depression.’
In a bid to slow the spread of the deadly illness, pubs and licensed premises will be closed from midday Monday for about six months.
The restrictions also cover places of worship, casinos, restaurants and cafes without takeaway services, nightclubs and registered clubs.
As news broke of the looming closures, panicked shoppers headed in droves to liquor stores to stock up on alcohol, however, bottle shops will remain open.
The stricter rules come after tens of thousands of people flocked beaches across the country on Friday and Saturday, ignoring the ban on mass gatherings and social distancing orders.