Bill Shorten may become the first Opposition leader to lose a seat at a by-election in 98 years
Bill Shorten may become the first Opposition leader to lose a seat at a by-election in 98 years.
The Liberal National Party is expected to steal the Queensland seat of Longman from Labor in a major coup on Saturday.
The seat is up for grabs after Labor’s Susan Lamb resigned for failing to renounce her British citizenship.
A YouGov Galaxy poll for The Daily Telegraph predicts the LNP will win 51 per cent of two-party preferred votes, leaving Labor on 49 per cent.
This is because the LNP will pick up most of Pauline Hanson’s One Nation supporters’ second-choice votes.
The same poll puts the by-election in Tasmania’s Braddon on a knife edge with the two main parties on a 50-50 split.
The last time a federal government took a seat from the Opposition in a by-election was in 1920.
Adding to Mr Shorten’s woes, the poll also revealed Labor would be in a winning position in both seats if front bencher Anthony Albanese was party leader.
A YouGov Galaxy poll predicts the LNP will win 51 per cent of two-party preferred votes, leaving Labor on 49 per cent. Adding insult to injury, voters were revealed to prefer Anthony Albanese over Bill Shorten (pictured)
The polls don’t bode well for Bill Shorten but senior Labor MPs say he will lead the party to the next federal election irrespective of the results of the Super Saturday by-elections.
Labor’s Brendan O’Connor said the party was confident of doing well in Longman, but admitted it was a ‘tough contest’ given One Nation was preferencing the LNP.
Asked on Sky News how a loss would impact on Mr Shorten’s leadership, Mr O’Connor said: ‘Bill Shorten will be leader at the next federal election.’
‘The last election campaign, the full contest, he won 14 seats and took us within a whisker of winning the election,’ Mr O’Connor said.
He said Mayo would be a test for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, as it is a ‘blue-ribbon, safe Liberal seat’.
‘When you talk about tests for Labor, there are tests for Malcolm Turnbull and Mayo is a test for him.’
Liberal frontbencher Josh Frydenberg dismissed any pressure on Mr Turnbull, given no government has won an opposition seat in a by-election for almost 100 years.
‘These by-elections will be close, but history goes against the coalition so we are very realistic about our chances,’ Mr Frydenberg told ABC TV.
He said the polls showed Mr Turnbull was ‘way ahead’ of Mr Shorten as preferred prime minister.
Asked whether an early federal election was on the cards if the Liberals performed well, Mr Frydenberg said: ‘The prime minister has made it clear he is expecting the election to be next year and nothing I’ve heard would changed that prediction.’
‘The reality is we are trying to climb Everest in winning these by-elections.’
The LNP will pick up most of One Nation supporters’ second-choice votes. Pictured: One Nation leader Pauline Hanson