Boris Johnson delivers a massive 17 point Tory surge in the polls putting PM on course for a huge Commons majority at a potential snap general election as voters ditch Labour and the Brexit Party while the Lib Dems stall
- Conservative Party is up a huge 17 points in latest poll conducted by KantarTNS
- Tories on 42 per cent, ahead of Labour on 28 per cent and Lib Dems’ 15 per cent
- Brexit Party and Labour both gone backwards on data comparing May to August
- Numbers suggest Boris Johnson would win 192 seat majority at snap election
Boris Johnson’s election as leader of the Conservatives has delivered a massive opinion poll boost to the Tories while support for Labour and the Brexit Party has gone backwards, new data suggests.
A survey conducted by KantarTNS between August 15 and 19 puts the Tories on 42 per cent – 17 points higher than the company’s last poll in May.
Meanwhile, Labour is on 28 per cent – six points lower than in May – while the Brexit Party is on just five per cent – five points lower than the last poll.
The Liberal Democrats remain stuck on 15 per cent with the election of Jo Swinson as leader last month seemingly having done nothing to boost the party’s fortunes.
The latest poll and 14 point lead over Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party will be welcomed by Downing Street as evidence that Mr Johnson’s hardline Brexit stance has been paying off since he took office at the end of July.
The 42 per cent rating for the Tories sees the party return to the kind of support levels the party last saw at the 2017 general election.
Under Theresa May’s leadership the Conservatives secured 42.4 per cent of the vote at the snap poll.
But even that was not enough to save her Commons majority as Labour managed to secure an unexpected 40 per cent of the vote and the nation returned a hung parliament.
If the latest poll numbers were to be repeated at a snap general election in the coming weeks, Mr Johnson could secure a Tory majority of 192 seats, based on modelling by the Electoral Calculus website.
The latest polling conducted by KantarTNS shows the Tories have jumped from 25 per cent in May to 42 per cent in August
Putting the latest data into the Electoral Calculus website suggests Mr Johnson could win a huge majority at a snap general election
Mr Johnson could win an estimated 421 seats while Labour could slump to as few as 152 MPs based on the prediction which paints a broad picture of what could happen based on the KantarTNS numbers.
Labour’s 152 figure would mean the party having 110 fewer MPs than it does currently.
The Tory tally of 421 would represent an increase of 103 seats.
In such an election, the Lib Dems would see a slight rise in their performance with a potential tally of 22 seats, up from the 12 MPs the party currently has.
The Brexit Party and the Greens would finish without any MPs while the SNP would finish with the 35 seats it currently possesses.
Mr Johnson has ruled out holding a snap general election before Britain has left the EU.
But should he deliver on his ‘do or die’ pledge to take the UK out of the EU with or without a deal on October 31 he would be expected to then turn his attention to going to the country early in the autumn or winter.
Meanwhile, he could yet be forced into holding an early election if opposition MPs are successful when they bring a vote of no confidence against the PM, potentially in September but almost certainly before October 31.
MPs are planning to use a vote of no confidence to try to topple Mr Johnson and stop him from pursuing a No Deal Brexit in the event he is unable to change the terms of the current divorce agreement with Brussels.
Under the terms of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, a successful vote of no confidence would trigger an election if no other government could be formed within a 14 day period.
The latest KantarTNS research also found that a majority of Britons (52 per cent) are in favour of the final terms of Brexit being put to a referendum.
One in three voters (33 per cent) back the UK remaining a member of the EU while 23 per cent would prefer Britain to leave the bloc with No Deal.