The UK is braced for two of the most hectic weeks in the recent history of British politics as Boris Johnson races to try to strike a new Brexit deal with the EU.
The PM has now submitted his ‘final offer’ to the bloc in which he sets out how he believes the Irish border backstop can be scrapped.
The government is now urging Brussels to engage with the plan in the hopes that it can provide the basis for a new divorce accord.
But the early noises from the continent have not been good for Downing Street with European Council president Donald Tusk today saying the EU remains ‘open’ to a deal but it is so far ‘unconvinced’ by Mr Johnson’s proposals.
The plan is not quite on life support as yet but Number 10 is likely to be pessimistic about the prospects of a deal being done.
If the EU does agree to move forward with the ideas it will set up frantic negotiations ahead of a crunch summit on October 17.
But if it rejects the blueprint in the coming days as unworkable then the two sides will be on course for either a chaotic split on October 31 or another Brexit delay.
Here’s a run down of how the next 28 days could play out.
Boris Johnson, pictured leaving 10 Downing Street today, is playing the waiting game after submitting his ‘final offer’ on Brexit to the EU
The EU is yet to formally respond to the PM’s five point plan but European leaders like Leo Varadkar, pictured in Stockholm today, have been relatively downbeat
What is Boris Johnson’s next move?
Having submitted his plans to Brussels yesterday and explained them to MPs in the House of Commons today, the PM is now playing a waiting game.
The fate of Brexit is now entirely in the EU’s hands as the bloc must decide whether it can work with Mr Johnson’s five point plan or if it feels that it is totally unacceptable and must be entirely rejected.
The initial reception has not been particularly positive but crucially EU leaders have not totally dismissed the proposals.
Downing Street will now have to wait to see whether Brussels is willing to formally engage on the ideas with a decision expected in the coming days.
Time is tight: The Brexit deadline is now less than a month away and if there is to be a deal the two sides will need to enter formal talks as soon as possible.
However, Mr Johnson is not just waiting for the EU to make a decision. The PM is engaging in a series of phone calls with his European counterparts in a bid to persuade them to at least entertain his blueprint.
Mr Johnson is expected to travel to European capitals in the coming days to make his case in person but it is unclear exactly who he will meet and when.
Is the PM going to try to prorogue Parliament again?
Yes he is. Mr Johnson is due to ask the Queen for permission to suspend Parliament from next Tuesday.
A Queen’s Speech will then be held on October 14 so that the government can set out its domestic legislative agenda.
How likely is it that this prorogation will be ruled unlawful?
Not very. The PM’s original attempt to prorogue Parliament for five weeks was ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court on the grounds that the amount of time MPs would be away was unacceptable because it would prevent them from scrutinising the government’s Brexit plans.
But the court made clear that a shorter suspension of five or six days would likely be acceptable.
Assuming prorogation does go ahead – and there is no reason to think that it won’t – MPs would return to work on October 14 to hear the Monarch set out Mr Johnson’s domestic plans.
There would then likely follow four days of debate with votes likely to be held on October 21.
When is the last EU summit before the Brexit deadline?
It is due to take place in Brussels on October 17-18. Both Britain and the bloc will be targeting that summit as potentially the last chance for a Brexit deal to be agreed.
However, negotiations are rarely actually carried out when European leaders meet – all of the hard work on the nuts and bolts of the deal will have to have been done before the meeting takes place.
That means the UK and EU have just two weeks to hammer out the terms of a new agreement.
If the framework of an accord is not in place by October 17 it is unlikely that one would be agreed at the summit.
However, there would still be scope for an emergency summit immediately before the Halloween deadline if something changed.
What about the anti-No Deal law?
The so-called Benn Act which was passed by Parliament after rebel MPs took control of the House of Commons requires the PM to ask the EU for a Brexit delay until January next year if the two sides have not agreed a deal by October 19.
The PM has said that he will abide by whatever is on the UK’s statute book but he has also vowed to stick to his ‘do or die’ Brexit pledge, sparking fears that he could try to ignore or get around the legislation.
What happens if the PM breaks the law?
Such a circumstance would be unthinkable but if it happened it would trigger immediate legal action and the Supreme Court would likely rule that the law must be complied with.
If the PM refused and potentially resigned it would then probably fall to someone else to have to ask the EU for a Brexit delay.
Today it emerged that EU leaders are reportedly ready to outflank Mr Johnson and approve the three month delay even if he refuses to ask for one.
It has been suggested that the letter required by the Benn Act requesting the delay might not have to be signed by Mr Johnson and that it could be done by the ‘head of government or head of state’ – that raises the prospect of the Queen getting involved.
An EU source told The Times: ‘We don’t care who it is, whether it is the prime minister or another representative of the executive.
The chances of the Queen intervening by writing the letter appear slim but it is thought the Supreme Court could ask a senior civil servant to pen the request.
Should the PM refuse to comply with the law and refuse to quit, MPs could table a vote of no confidence to try to oust him.
What happens if the two sides do agree a deal?
The terms struck would be put to a vote in the House of Commons – just like when Theresa May’s deal was voted on (and defeated) three times.
The government is bullish on the prospects of Mr Johnson being able to secure a majority for what he has proposed.
He would probably be reliant on the support of a handful of Labour MPs in order to win.
So what exactly is Boris Johnson’s offer to the EU on the backstop?
The PM set out in a letter to Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday how he intends to replace the backstop.
The government’s view is that ‘the proposed ‘backstop’ is a bridge to nowhere, and a new way forward must be found.’
Instead the government is proposing a ‘new Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland’ that is ‘based around five elements’.
The plan is to create two Northern Irish borders at the end of the Brexit transition period, with the arrangements rolled out in January 2021.
One of them will be a regulatory border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Effectively this would amount to a border in the Irish Sea with Northern Ireland remaining aligned with the EU on single market rules for all goods while the rest of the UK could diverge from those rules.
That regulatory border would come with a proposed four-yearly review mechanism – but it would only go ahead in 2021 if the Northern Irish Assembly agreed to it.
The PM told Jean-Claude Juncker in a letter yesterday that he is anxious to strike a deal, adding: ‘If we cannot reach one, it would represent a failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible.’
The four-page letter proceeds dozens of pages of proposal that outlines the Prime Minister’s new Brexit blueprint, including a solution to the Irish backstop
‘We are proposing that the Northern Ireland Executive and Assembly should have the opportunity to endorse those arrangements before they enter into force, that is, during the transition period, and every four years afterwards,’ the PM’s letter to Brussels says.
The second border would be between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and it would be purely relating to customs.
The UK is effectively asking the EU to grant wide-ranging exemptions on customs rules to make the north/south border as frictionless as possible.
In simple terms, the backstop would be completely scrapped, Northern Ireland would leave the customs union with the rest of the UK but it would remain in parts of the single market until 2025.
The plan has been dubbed ‘two borders for four years’.
What would happen in 2025?
The Northern Irish Assembly would be asked how it wants to proceed, with two options on the table.
The first would be for Northern Ireland to continue to stay aligned with EU regulations.
The second would be to split from EU rules and then realign with the rest of the UK which would be assumed to have diverged from the Brussels regulations book in a number of areas by that time.
If Stormont opted for the second option it could risk the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland.
But it would be hoped that by 2025 there would be technological solutions which could avoid that eventuality.
‘Northern Ireland will be fully part of the UK customs territory, not the EU customs union, after the end of the transition period. We must do so whole and entire. Control of trade policy is fundamental to our future vision,’ the PM said in his letter to Brussels.
What else is in the PM’s plan?
The proposals to keep Northern Ireland in the single market for all goods, for the whole UK to leave the customs union at the same time and for Stormont to have a say on whether the borders plan goes ahead are the most eye-catching of the five points put forward by the PM.
But the final two are also important.
Firstly, Mr Johnson makes clear in his blueprint that he wants the two sides to ‘find solutions which are compatible with the Good Friday Agreement’ in order to protect peace on the island of Ireland.
‘This framework is the fundamental basis for governance in Northern Ireland and protecting it is that highest priority for all,’ the PM said in his letter to Mr Juncker.
Secondly, the premier has also recommitted to UK/Irish collaboration in a bid to ensure that Brexit does not harm the current relationship between the two nations.
In terms of specifics it reaffirms the UK’s commitment to maintaining the current Common Travel Area as well as continuing north/south cooperation.
What about the customs posts plan we heard about earlier this week?
It was reported that the UK was proposing establishing ‘customs clearance centres’ on both sides of the border as part of its plan to replace the backstop.
Those customs posts would be located between five and 10 miles away from the crossing and would see lorries carrying goods check in and check out as they head north or south.
Such an approach would have ensured there was no physical infrastructure built at the border itself but it would have meant physical infrastructure being built somewhere and that would likely have been enough for the the EU and Dublin to reject the plan.
However, the plan submitted by Mr Johnson to the EU makes no reference to ‘customs clearance centres’ or customs posts.
It makes clear that it wants to monitor customs in a ‘decentralised’ way far away from the border and with only a ‘very small number’ of physical checks.
Most of those checks would be carried out at the point of origin of goods with electronic paperwork doing most of the heavy lifting when it comes to keeping track of what is crossing the border.
Mr Johnson said in his letter to Mr Juncker: ‘All this must be coupled with a firm commitment by both parties never to conduct checks at the border in future.’
Is the EU likely to agree to the UK’s new plan?
Brussels will keep its powder dry until it has carefully considered what is set out in the UK’s plan.
But the early noises are not good for Number 10.
Irish premier Leo Varadkar said today that Mr Johnson’s Brexit plans ‘fall short in a number of aspects’.
He also said the operation of two different custom zones on the island would create a ‘real difficulty’.
He also risked fury as he said he believed the British people wanted to stay in the EU.
He said: ‘All the polls since Prime Minister Johnson became prime minister suggest that’s what the British people actually want, but their political system isn’t able to give them that choice.’
Meanwhile, Mr Tusk said following separate phone conversations with Mr Johnson and Mr Varadkar: ‘We remain open but still unconvinced.’
Elsewhere, the European Parliament’s Brexit Steering Group (BSG) said it has ‘grave concerns’ about Mr Johnson’s proposals, which it said cannot be backed ‘in their current form’.
Is a No Deal Brexit now more or less likely?
Until the EU formally responds it is hard to say for certain but it is immediately clear that the plan has not gone down particularly well in European capitals.
However, the EU does not want a No Deal Brexit and certainly does not want to be blamed for a chaotic split.
The question now is whether the bloc believes Mr Johnson’s offer can work as a starting point for further negotiations.
If the answer is no, then the two sides will be heading for a bad break on October 31 – or another Brexit delay.
Donald Tusk said the EU remained ‘open’ to a deal’ but that he was so far ‘unconvinced’ by Mr Johnson’s offer
Are there any other obvious problems with the plan?
The Northern Irish Assembly would play a key part under Mr Johnson’s plan but Stormont has been suspended since January 2017 due to a range of problems and disagreements between the different political parties.
Questions will inevitably be asked about whether such an unstable institution could be relied upon to be given such a crucial role in the Brexit process – firstly next year when it is asked whether or not to go ahead with the two borders plan and then again in 2025 when it is asked if it wants to continue with the arrangements.
Some of this sounds familiar. Didn’t Theresa May suggest something like this?
One plan Mrs May had looked at when she was in office was called ‘Max Fac’ – or ‘Maximum Facilitation’.
That essentially suggested that technology could be used to reduce the need for customs checks and to ensure trade could remain as frictionless as possible.
‘Max Fac’ was eventually put on the back burner but the concepts it is based on were enshrined in the old Withdrawal Agreement in the sense that it committed the two sides to examining potential technological ‘alternative arrangements’ to the backstop in the future.
Mr Johnson’s new plan is also heavily reliant on technolog in order for it to work.
Remind me: What’s the problem with the backstop?
The main obstacle to a Brexit deal remains the Irish border insurance policy.
The protocol is effectively a safety net intended to guarantee there is no return to a hard border on the island of Ireland.
Under the Withdrawal Agreement negotiated by Mrs May, if there is no long-term trade agreement in place that ensures an open border, the UK would remain closely tied to EU rules and its customs union.
Mr Johnson has insisted the measure has to be scrapped as being in a customs union would prevent the UK striking trade deals.
Meanwhile, getting out of the backstop would require the agreement of both the EU and UK, something Number 10 views as unacceptable because it means it could last indefinitely.
How likely is it that the UK will leave the EU on October 31?
The answer to this question depends entirely on who you ask.
Mr Johnson is adamant that he will deliver on his ‘do or die’ pledge to take the UK out of the EU on October 31 with or without a deal.
He is also adamant that the proposals he is handing over to the EU represent the UK’s ‘final offer’.
But the so-called Benn Act requires the Prime Minister to seek a delay to Brexit if MPs have not approved a deal, or agreed to leave the EU without one, by October 19.
Mr Johnson has repeatedly said he will both obey the law and meet the Halloween deadline with or without a deal – but he has not been clear about how he intends to do both things.
It could all result in yet another constitutional crisis being played out in the courts.