Boris Johnson would fall 26 seats short of a majority in the House of Commons if a snap general election was held tomorrow despite a surge in support for the Tories since he became PM, a series of new polls have suggested.
Mr Johnson has given the Conservative Party a major ‘Boris boost’ with support for the Tories up across the board since he took office last week.
But he still has a lot of work to do ahead of a potential early election if he is to have any chance of winning enough seats for the Tories to rule on their own.
An average of four separate polls published last night puts the Conservatives on 28 per cent with Labour trailing on 25 per cent.
Meanwhile, The Liberal Democrats are in third place on 19 per cent, the Brexit Party is fourth on 16 per cent and the Green Party is fifth on six per cent.
Plugging those numbers into the Electoral Calculus election forecaster suggests such figures would see Mr Johnson finish with 300 seats.
Such a tally would leave the new PM 26 seats short of an overall majority in the Commons and it would be even fewer than the 318 seats Theresa May won in 2017.
However, if Mr Johnson did a deal with The Brexit Party he could surge to a more than 200 seat majority, based on their combined poll rating being above 40 per cent.
An average of four new polls gives the Tories a three point lead over the Labour Party
A Deltapoll for the Mail on Sunday showed the Tories were now five points ahead of Labour after Boris Johnson took charge
Mr Johnson, pictured in Manchester yesterday, appears to have won back some Eurosceptic voters since taking office but he has much work to do if he wants to win a majority
Downing Street is likely to be encouraged by the direction of travel in the polls given the torrid time the Tories have had in recent months.
Recent surveys have had the Conservative Party as low as 17 per cent.
Team Johnson will be hoping that his ‘do or die’ Brexit pledge will continue to win back supporters from The Brexit Party as speculation mounts that he could call a snap election.
If Mr Johnson was able to win back most of the voters who currently support The Brexit Party he would have a decent shot at winning a majority.
Mr Johnson has said he ‘absolutely’ will not call an early election before the UK has left the EU on October 31.
But with the EU refusing to renegotiate and a majority of MPs opposed to No Deal, many in Westminster believe Mr Johnson could be forced into going to the country in a last ditch effort to break the Brexit impasse.
The volatile nature of British politics and the broad nature of the modelling used by Electoral Calculus means that an actual election could play out very differently to what the numbers suggest.
But they do paint an overall picture of the two main parties continuing to struggle.
Labour’s average poll rating of 25 per cent could see the party end up with just 232 seats at a general election.
That would be 30 fewer than the party secured at the 2017 election.
The major winners at the moment are the resurgent Liberal Democrats.
The party scraped to 12 seats in 2017 but its ‘stop Brexit’ mantra and resulting strong performance at the European elections earlier this year means the Lib Dems are in the ascendancy under new leader Jo Swinson.
If the party polled 19 per cent at a general election it could finish with as many as 54 seats.
But the modelling suggests Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party could end up with just six seats, even if it won 16 per cent of the vote.
That is likely to reignite talk of a potential electoral pact between the Tories and The Brexit Party.
Mr Farage has said a pact is a ‘possibility’ but only if Mr Johnson is serious about taking the UK out of the EU by October 31.
Such a pact could in theory put the Tories above 40 per cent in the polls – potentially enough to win a crushing majority of more than 200 seats.
A YouGov survey published in June had the Tories on just 17 per cent of the vote
The current numbers suggest the Tories would be in the driving seat after a snap election in terms of trying to form a government.
But the party would be even more reliant on the support of other parties to command a majority in the Commons than it is now.
Currently Mr Johnson has a working majority of just two MPs and that is only thanks to the support of the DUP.
One of the polls, a Deltapoll survey for the Mail on Sunday, puts the Tories on 30 per cent, up from 20 per cent in the firm’s poll for the newspaper at the start of the summer – turning a six-point lead for Jeremy Corbyn over Mrs May into a five-point advantage for Mr Johnson.
The rise corresponds to a ten-point fall for The Brexit Party, whose support for a No Deal Brexit has been matched by Mr Johnson.
But the poll paints a more pessimistic view of Mr Johnson’s electoral prospects if Mr Corbyn is replaced by another Labour leader: in that case the opposition would enjoy a six-point lead.
Nigel Farage could come under pressure to do a deal with Mr Johnson if the polls continue to move in the direction of the PM
The poll came as aides warned Mr Johnson that his wafer-thin majority could be wiped out by the end of the week.
The Tory majority fell to two last week after Dover MP Charlie Elphicke had the Conservative whip suspended when he was charged over allegations of sexually assaulting two women, and it is expected to drop to just one after the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election on Thursday.
The by-election was triggered when Chris Davies was ousted from the seat by a recall petition triggered after he was convicted of submitting false expenses claims.
The Liberal Democrats are hopeful of victory in the seat.
Now party whips have warned No 10 that police are considering charging a second MP over a groping allegation, which would wipe out Mr Johnson’s majority.