Boris Johnson is fighting to get the DUP and Tory hardliners on board with a Brexit deal today as fraught talks continue in Brussels.
UK and EU negotiators are reconvening this morning after working late into the night – getting tantalisingly close to the legal text of a settlement.
Officials have claimed that the ‘compromise’ revolves around installing a de facto customs border between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain – but keeping the UK legally intact and offering businesses in the province rebates to offset any tariff differences.
However, the delicate process seemed to be derailed by the intervention of the DUP, whose leader Arlene Foster emerged from a briefing in No10 to declare there were still issues to resolve.
In an ominous sign, she also swiped that she did not ‘trust’ the PM to strike a deal that protects the union. ‘I trust myself,’ she said.
Splits also emerged in the hardline Tory Eurosceptic ERG bloc. While chair Steve Baker came out from his own Downing Street chat saying he was ready to endorse a ‘tolerable deal’, former Cabinet minister Owen Paterson branded the package ‘unacceptable’.
Despite the EU’s Michel Barnier setting a deadline of last night for a deal to be finalised in time for tomorrow’s Brussels summit, it is thought there are still a few hours of wrangling left before ambassadors from members states are filled in on progress this afternoon.
Even if Mr Johnson manages to pull together an agreement and get it through the Commons this week, he is facing the threat of a delay to his ‘do or die’ Halloween deadline for Brexit .
Both France and Germany have indicated they want months to scrutinise the detail before rubber-stamping an agreement.
The EU’s leverage has been dramatically increased by a Remainer law that obliges the PM to beg the bloc for an extension until at least January if a deal has not been struck by this Saturday.
A spokesman for 10 Downing Street (Boris Johnson is pictured outside 10 Downing Street on Tuesday) said: ‘We’re working hard. The talks remain constructive – but we know time constraints’
Michel Barnier (pictured left arriving for a meeting at the European Convention Center in Luxembourg on Tuesday) said: ‘Agreement will be difficult but IS possible this week’. While Leo Varadkar (pictured right speaking to the media at Government Buildings in Dublin on Tuesday) said: ‘PM said he’s confident he could get deal through Commons’
Should a deal be reached, a draft text of the agreement could be published today.
But as the drama unfolded overnight, Downing Street was desperately trying to play down expectations of an imminent breakthrough.
One Whitehall insider said: ‘There is progress, but one mis-step and it can all turn to dust.’
Another source told MailOnline the details were still ‘in the sausage machine’.
There was also some anger at EU officials for trying to ‘bounce’ the UK into more concessions by talking up the prospects of a pact.
Mr Johnson’s efforts were boosted last night by a warm response from a group of so-called Spartan MPs – Brexiteers who rejected Theresa May’s deal three times.
Mr Johnson knows he must have the majority of members of the 60-strong ERG group on board or his deal has little chance of making it through a vote in the House of Commons.
ERG chief Mr Baker, a former Brexit minister, said after talks in No10: ‘I am optimistic that it is possible to reach a tolerable deal I am able to vote for.’
He later urged colleagues to ‘trust’ the PM to bring back a deal that respected their red lines.
Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith and anti-EU battler Sir Bill Cash MP also sounded positive.
But deputy chair Mark Francois was more circumspect, saying merely that the meeting with Mr Johnson was ‘interesting’ and there would be ‘further chats’.
Conventional wisdom in Westminster is that if Mr Johnson manages to satisfy the DUP – whose 10 MPs have been propping up the Tory government – most of the ERG will swing behind a deal.
However, the support of the unionist party appears far from certain today.
After Ms Foster and her deputy Nigel Dodds held a 90-minute meeting in Downing Street last night, a DUP spokesman said: ‘It would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required.’
The DUP is demanding that Northern Ireland must leave the EU together with the rest of the UK, saying there cannot be a customs border in the Irish Sea.
Asked whether she trusted Mr Johnson to protect Northern Ireland’s interests, Mrs Foster said: ‘I don’t trust anyone else in these negotiations. I trust myself.’
However, senior figures in both the EU and Westminster warned that Mr Johnson will be forced to seek another Brexit delay even if a deal is done this week.
A senior German government official told The Times that political agreement on a deal would not be sufficient ‘to resolve technical issues’ and therefore Brexit would need to be postponed for a third time until January 1.
‘Without a deal this week, Britain will need an extension. With a deal this week, Britain will need an extension,’ a senior EU diplomatic source said.
Last night’s apparent breakthrough came after the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier set a midnight deadline for talks to conclude so details of any agreement could be drawn up for tomorrow’s summit of EU leaders in Brussels. He said: ‘Even if the agreement will be difficult, more and more difficult to be frank, it is still possible.’
A Whitehall source said negotiations would go to the wire, adding: ‘The big moments in the EU have all been done at one minute to midnight. There is no expectation this will be any different.’
Last night, Mr Johnson’s chief negotiator David Frost remained locked in talks inside the EU Commission’s headquarters to reach the midnight deadline. The British team was still pushing for a ‘hybrid’ customs arrangement that would allow the UK to claim Northern Ireland was leaving the EU’s customs jurisdiction under the terms of the Irish backstop designed to avoid a hard border in Ireland.
Brussels sources said the UK had offered major concessions by moving closer to the EU demand for Northern Ireland to stay in the bloc’s customs union and creating a customs border in the Irish Sea.
But there was irritation in Downing Street last night about efforts by the EU to ‘bounce’ Mr Johnson into further concessions by suggesting a deal was all but done. ‘We have made good progress, but there is still a way to go, a source said. ‘It’s going to go through the night – and it could all still fall apart.’
If a deal is struck, MPs could sit on Saturday for the first time since the Falklands War to approve it.
No10 said Parliament would be asked to work ‘around the clock’ for an October 31 Brexit.
Arlene Foster (pictured speaking at the Manchester Convention Centre last month) said: ‘We need to stick to our principles and get deal that respects UK integrity’
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay (pictured arriving for a meeting of the EU General Affairs Council at the European Convention Centre in Luxembourg on Tuesday) said: ‘We need to give talks space – but deal is very possible’
If a deal is not struck, Mr Johnson faces a clash with Parliament and the courts over a controversial law requiring him to seek a Brexit delay until the end of January.
Even if there is an agreement, former justice secretary David Gauke said pro-Remain MPs would insist on another delay to ensure any deal gets full parliamentary scrutiny.
Mr Gauke, one of 21 former Tory rebels Mr Johnson needs to win back, said he and his colleagues would only back a deal if Mr Johnson agreed to ask for more time.
‘If he gets a deal I would be supportive,’ he said. ‘But I wouldn’t want to be in a position where we vote for a deal on Saturday, something then goes wrong in the next 12 days and we crash out without a deal on October 31.’
Pound spikes on hopes Brexit deal is close
Amid a frantic last push for an agreement, the Pound was near its peak since the summer against the US dollar, at over 1.28
The Pound was hovering at its highest levels for months this afternoon amid rising optimism over a Brexit deal.
Amid a frantic last push for an agreement, sterling was near its peak since the summer against the US dollar, at over 1.28 at 3pm.
Meanwhile, it was above 1.16 versus the euro – rates not seen since May.
Michel Barnier and Steve Barclay fuelled hopes that a Brexit deal is close this morning as they insisted it is ‘very possible’ to seal a package for a crunch EU summit this week.
Stephen Kinnock, one of the Labour moderates whose votes are being targeted by No10, also said there would ‘need to be an extension’ even if a deal is struck this week to push through the complex divorce legislation.
German officials and French President Emmanuel Macron warned that a delay may be needed to iron out details of Mr Johnson’s complex proposal for avoiding a hard border in Ireland.
One senior EU source said: ‘Without a deal this week, Britain will need an extension. With a deal this week, Britain will need an extension.’
Irish premier Leo Varadkar suggested Mr Johnson will only be offered an agreement in principle at the summit.
He said: ‘Indications are that we are making progress. But whether we’ll be able to conclude a revised Withdrawal Agreement, which is an international treaty, for the summit, that’s unclear.’
Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons and a former ERG chair, told LBC: ‘I think the votes are there now for a deal.’
But, in an interview with The Sun, former environment secretary Owen Paterson dubbed it ‘unacceptable’ that Mr Johnson was reportedly preparing to agree to a border down the Irish Sea, creating custom checks on goods travelling between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
While still in office, Mrs May said such an arrangement could never be accepted by a British prime minister.
Mr Paterson said: ‘We await the full details of the new deal to see exactly how they address the objections to the dead Theresa May deal, but dual-tariff systems like this would be, as Priti Patel has said, unacceptable.’
Mr Johnson was meeting Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg in Downing Street on Tuesday
The DUP, in a statement after their second audience with the PM in as many days, were also decidedly lukewarm on the mooted proposals.
‘We respect the fact negotiations are ongoing and therefore cannot give a detailed commentary but it would be fair to indicate gaps remain and further work is required,’ a spokesman said.
Leader Arlene Foster and her deputy Nigel Dodds slipped out of the back exit of Downing Street and avoided waiting journalists following the meeting.
Number 10 officials were privately playing down suggestions of a Brussels breakthrough and the PM’s decision to hold Cabinet in the late afternoon indicated that negotiators still require time to finalise a deal before Thursday’s crunch European Council summit.
Addressing journalists on Tuesday, the PM’s official spokesman said: ‘Talks remain constructive but there is more work still to do.’
A deal will need to be published, along with a legal text, if the EU27 are to consider ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement at their gathering this week, meaning the pressure is on to sign off on the draft agreement.
Bitter wrangling between Britain and the bloc over whether a deal is possible came after both sides fueled hopes of a breakthrough.
Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay made a surprise dash to Luxembourg for the meeting of ministers this morning, saying a deal was ‘very possible’.
Mr Johnson postponed a Cabinet meeting amid a final push – after DUP leader Arlene Foster came to Downing Street for 90 minutes of talks on Monday night.
The PM also had a ‘constructive’ 20-minute call with Mr Macron.
An aide to the French president told reporters there was ‘positive momentum’ behind the talks. He is said to have told Mr Johnson he was not keen on a delay, but raised the prospect of a ‘technical’ extension, potentially a few more weeks to finalise a deal.
That would be ferociously resisted by Mr Johnson as a breach of his ‘do or die’ vow, but could be unavoidable as MPs will force him to accept it.
The Pound spiked on signs that the two sides are homing in on an agreement, with the UK putting put forward a new legal text designed to bridge the gap on customs checks.
Earlier, Mr Barnier insisted completing the ‘difficult’ process was ‘possible’ this week.
Arriving to brief EU ministers in Luxembourg, he said: ‘Reaching an agreement is still possible. Obviously, any agreement must work for all, the whole of the UK and the whole of the EU.
‘Let me add also that it is high time to turn good intentions in a legal text.’
Brexit Secretary Mr Barclay appealed for ‘space’, adding: ‘Detailed conversations are under way and a deal is still very possible.’
However, Mr Barnier reportedly told ministers at a private meeting that time is short and the blueprint is not yet ready
No10 was buoyed on Monday when Irish deputy PM Simon Coveney said an agreement was still ‘possible’ this week.
But Finnish PM Antti Rinne, who holds the rotating presidency of the EU, on Monday night played down hopes of a breakthrough on the Irish border.
‘I think there is no time in a practical or legal way to find an agreement before the EU Council meeting,’ he said. ‘We need more time and we need to have negotiations after the meeting.’
Mr Johnson is anxious to get a deal agreed before Saturday, when legislation requiring him to seek another Brexit delay kicks in.
The PM has said he will lead Britain out of the EU on October 31 come what may.
But any attempt to get around the law would lead to a clash with the courts and could spark a Cabinet walkout led by Attorney General Geoffrey Cox.
After the meeting in Luxembourg on Tuesday, Mr Covenet said: ‘I don’t want to raise expectations about later on today or this evening but if there is going to be a positive report to EU leaders tomorrow in advance of an EU Summit, then clearly a big step forward needs to happen today to build on what has been slow but steady progress.
‘We are not putting any deadlines on these discussions. It’s possible to move beyond the summit and continue talks next week.’
He added: ‘If the deal can’t be done today or tomorrow then the leaders will have to decide what kind of mandate they want to give Michel Barnier and the UK side will have to respond as well as to how to proceed.’
No10 poured cold water on the apparent deadline set by Mr Barnier for a legal text.
Asked if he recognises the deadline, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: ‘We are working hard. The Prime Minister is aware of the time constraints that we are under.
‘We want to make progress towards securing a deal as soon as possible and we want to make progress ahead of the EU council on Thursday.’
Mr Johnson told Mr Macron that UK officials would ‘continue to work hard’ on securing a Brexit deal, the spokesman said.
‘The Prime Minister said that in advance of the EU council UK officials would continue to work hard on securing a deal,’ according to the spokesman.
‘The PM and the president also expressed their deep concerns at the Turkish incursion and agreed to continue to stay in close contact.’
Belgian deputy prime minister Didier Reynders said: ‘We are in the last hours of real negotiation.
‘I am hoping it is possible to have a deal, but we have a high level of solidarity with Ireland from the beginning and we are trying to protect the integrity of the internal market, the single market…
‘If we have an agreement tonight it will be possible to go to the Council and then again to the British parliament.
‘It’s not easy, we have some red lines. They are well known by all the partners, and I am hoping it will be possible today to make some progress.’
French president Emmanuel Macron (pictured with Donald Tusk on Monday) raised the prospect of an extension to the UK’s departure date in a phone call with Mr Johnson
Angela Merkel said on Tuesday that the EU would work ‘until the last minute’ to seal an agreement.
In a speech to German industry, she added that the UK was going to be ‘another competitor on Europe’s doorstep and that will require the EU even more strongly to be competitive and to take geopolitical responsibility.’
In a fresh headache for the premier, Remainer MPs are demanding he agrees an extension even if a Brexit deal is sealed at the EU summit.
Former Cabinet minister David Gauke insisted on Tuesday that a ‘technical’ extension will be needed as there is no time to ratify any agreement before October 31.
There are fears among some MPs that Eurosceptics will try a ‘double-cross’, by voting in favour of a deal – but then blocking the legislation to implement it.
That would satisfy the terms of the Benn Act, releasing the PM from the obligation to beg for a delay, and pave the way for No Deal at Halloween.
But environment minister Zac Goldsmith flatly rejected the idea of a delay.
‘I don’t think an extension is necessary. If both sides wish to secure a deal, a deal can be secured,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today.
‘It’s a matter of political will. Where there’s a will there is a way, and that has never been more true than in the case of Brexit.
‘And I think it is really important that we don’t continue to extend and extend and extend which is what we’ve been doing for the last few years, because there are issues of trust there.’
Downing Street has been tight-lipped about the latest compromise plans, which emerged from head-to-head talks between Mr Johnson and Mr Varadkar last week.
But the decision to delay Cabinet increased speculation that a deal is close.
A government source said: ‘There is a feeling there is no point holding a Cabinet meeting if the PM can’t brief ministers on the deal and that maybe things will look different in a day or two.’
Sources said the PM was considering a call to European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker on Tuesday to help speed up the process.
As EU ministers met in Luxembourg, Mr Johnson’s Brexit ‘sherpa’ David Frost was starting another round of negotiations with the commission officials in Brussels.
Mr Coveney said on Monday it was still ‘possible’ to strike a Brexit deal by the end of the week.
He also appeared to suggest that those briefing against Mr Johnson’s new proposal should stop.
EU sources say the Republic of Ireland is very keen on Mr Johnson’s latest plan for breaking the border backstop deadlock.
But Mr Barnier previously trashed the plan, insisting it would be ‘very difficult’ to do a deal in time for Britain to leave on October 31.
Brussels sources last night denied divisions between EU capitals and Mr Barnier over his hardline stance, insisting he was not the ‘roadblock’ to a deal.
Despite major concessions made by Mr Johnson, Mr Barnier told EU ambassadors on Sunday night that the UK’s proposals would cause ‘the unravelling of the EU’s customs code’, that they are ‘untested’ and could open up the single market to fraud.
Mr Johnson’s alternative for replacing the backstop is thought to be a dual customs arrangement which would see Northern Ireland subject to EU tariffs on goods, but de facto remain within the UK’s customs jurisdiction.
At the weekend, Jacob Rees-Mogg said he was ready to ‘eat my own words’ and back the ‘dual customs’ plan, which he previously opposed.
However, the Democratic Unionist Party continue to express doubts over the plan.
Arriving for a meeting of foreign ministers in Luxembourg on Monday, Mr Coveney said: ‘I think, as Leo Varadkar has said, a deal is possible and it’s possible this month, it may even be possible this week.
‘But we’re not there yet, and as Michel Barnier said on Monday there is still a lot of work to do, so I hope that we can make more progress today.’
The Pound was hovering at its highest levels for months on Tuesday amid rising optimism.
Amid a frantic last push for an agreement, sterling was near its peak since the summer against the US dollar, at over 1.26.
Meanwhile, it was above 1.146 versus the euro – rates not seen since May.
It comes as The Liberal Democrats tabled an amendment to the Queen’s Speech calling for any Brexit deal to be put to voters in a referendum.
If the amendment backing a so-called ‘people’s vote’ is selected by the Commons Speaker, it could be voted on by MPs as early as Tuesday.
Party leader Jo Swinson said: ‘The Liberal Democrats are the strongest party of Remain and have been the leading voice in the people’s vote campaign.
‘Boris Johnson is determined to have a general election, but the best way to resolve the Brexit chaos is to have a people’s vote and give the British people the final say about their future.
‘The best deal we have is as members of the European Union and we want to give the people the chance to choose to stop Brexit.’
The amendment reads: ‘Instruct the Government to prepare for a people’s vote in which the public will have the choice between the latest Withdrawal Agreement and remaining in the European Union.’
But the Conservative Party’s deputy chairman said MPs ‘can’t pick and choose which votes they respect’.
Paul Scully MP said: ‘Yesterday the Liberal Democrats wanted to ignore 17.4 million voters by revoking Brexit, today they want to do it by holding a second referendum.
‘Whatever they wake up saying tomorrow, it’s clear that what you’ll get with them is more delay, gridlock and uncertainty.
‘Politicians can’t pick and choose which votes they respect.’