Brexit delay could last FIVE YEARS if May’s deal is not passed

Theresa May will challenge MPs to finally back Brexit this afternoon – on the day Britain was supposed to leave the EU.

In a high-stakes gamble, Mrs May will throw down the gauntlet to Labour and her own Eurosceptic MPs, amid fears that she risks a third, and possibly final, defeat.

If she does lose – and Parliament tries to make her accept a customs union and second referendum – allies fear she could be forced to call a General Election as early as next week.

The Prime Minister made her move after deciding to take the dramatic step of splitting her deal in the hope of getting it through the Commons.

British Prime Minister Theresa May speaking at the House of Commons on Wednesday. She faces a third attempt to get her meaningful vote through 

A dark cloud looms over the House of Parliament on Thursday evening as British MPs prepare to debate and vote on the withdrawal agreement on Friday

A dark cloud looms over the House of Parliament on Thursday evening as British MPs prepare to debate and vote on the withdrawal agreement on Friday

A cross-party group of MPs led by Sir Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper threatened to change the law next week to force Mrs May to pursue a soft Brexit option, such as a customs union

A cross-party group of MPs led by Sir Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper threatened to change the law next week to force Mrs May to pursue a soft Brexit option, such as a customs union

A cross-party group of MPs led by Sir Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper threatened to change the law next week to force Mrs May to pursue a soft Brexit option, such as a customs union

Tory leadership candidate Michael Gove leaves home for a run on Thursday as the Prime Minister fights to save her deal

Jacob Rees-Mogg (pictured Thursday) has urged hardline Eurosceptics to back Theresa May or face losing Brexit

Tory leadership candidate Michael Gove leaves home for a run on Thursday as the Prime Minister fights to save her deal. Jacob Rees-Mogg (pictured on Thursday) has urged hardline Eurosceptics to back Theresa May or face losing Brexit

The meeting with the Speaker shortly before Commons leader Andrea Leadsom made a cryptic announcement about a debate and vote on Friday

The meeting with the Speaker shortly before Commons leader Andrea Leadsom made a cryptic announcement about a debate and vote on Friday

Theresa May is rolling the dice on another vote on her divorce deal on Friday after finding a way around John Bercow's (pictured on Thursday in the Commons) 'sabotage' of the plan

Theresa May is rolling the dice on another vote on her divorce deal on Friday after finding a way around John Bercow’s (pictured on Thursday in the Commons) ‘sabotage’ of the plan 

MPs will vote only on the ‘divorce’ element of the deal today – and not the political declaration on Britain’s future relationship with the EU.

If Mrs May wins, the date of Brexit would be fixed at May 22, and Britain would not have to hold European Parliament elections the following day. 

David Cameron refuses to say who he thinks should replace Theresa May 

Former prime minister David Cameron urged warring MPs to ‘compromise’ to get some sort of Brexit deal through the ‘stuck’ Parliament.

The ex-Tory leader, who quit after leaving the failed Remain campaign in the 2016 election said two of four main factions in the Commons – spanning all opinions on Brexit – would have to ‘compromise’.

But he declined to say who he would back to replace Theresa May when she stands down, telling ITV News on Thursday: ‘It’s not for me to say.’

He said: ‘The basic problem is that Parliament is stuck.

‘There are four groups in Parliament; people who want the PM’s deal, people who want no deal, people who want a second referendum and people who want a softer Brexit.

‘We – the Government – has to try and find a way of getting at least two of those groups to work together, to combine their options, to compromise to find that partnership agreement and I hope that is what will happen.’

However, if she loses the vote, Mrs May is likely to have to return to the EU to seek another, longer delay – guaranteeing we would elect MEPs.

A Whitehall source said another defeat for the Prime Minister’s deal could see Brexit delayed for up to five years.

‘Once you have taken part in the European elections, there is no limit on the number of extensions you could have during the lifetime of the parliament,’ they said. 

The warning came as: 

  •  A cross-party group of MPs led by Sir Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper threatened to change the law next week to force Mrs May to pursue a soft Brexit option, such as a customs union;
  • Boris Johnson, who dropped his opposition to the deal after Mrs May agreed to step down, was reported to have declared it ‘dead’;
  • Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab made a bid for the Eurosceptic vote in the coming leadership election by refusing to back the deal and urging Mrs May to go back to Brussels and negotiate;
  • Former chief whip Mark Harper and Tory grandee Crispin Blunt indicated they would now back the deal;
  • Mrs May’s former deputy Damian Green suggested she would ‘soldier on’ as Prime Minister if her deal is defeated, despite ministers warning privately she could not lead the party into another election;
  • Writing in the Mail, Iain Duncan Smith urged his fellow European Research Group members to back the deal, saying ‘Brussels will have Britain over a barrel’ if the vote is lost;
  • Nigel Farage will lead a pro-Brexit rally outside Parliament while MPs are voting.

Ministers hope the symbolism of MPs voting on the day the UK was originally due to leave the European Union will pile pressure on opponents of the deal to back down. They also believe the public would blame MPs for blocking Brexit.

Boris Johnson today branded Theresa May's Brexit deal 'dead' - less than 24 hours after he sensationally backed it

Theresa May (pictured returning to Parliament) sensationally promised to quit Downing Street in return for Tory Brexiteer rebels passing her deal as she admitted her time as Prime Minister was almost over

On Thursday Boris Johnson branded Theresa May’s Brexit deal ‘dead’ – less than 24 hours after he sensationally backed it  – and will call on Mrs May to quit even if she doesn’t deliver Brexit

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox

May's deputy David Lidington

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox (pictured left, on Thursday) and David Lidington (pictured right on Thursday) confronted John Bercow on Thursday morning to establish whether he would allow a new vote on the Brexit deal

The Prime Minister will use what was supposed to be Brexit Day to hold a vote on just the legally binding divorce deal and not the political declaration - meaning the Speaker could not rule it out

The Prime Minister will use what was supposed to be Brexit Day to hold a vote on just the legally binding divorce deal and not the political declaration – meaning the Speaker could not rule it out

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, who will open today’s debate, said the vote would give MPs the last opportunity to lock in the May 22 departure date and avoid further debilitating uncertainty and delays.

Commons Speaker John Bercow, who had threatened to block a third vote on Mrs May’s deal unless it was ‘substantially’ different, last night approved the vote, saying the decision to split the deal met his test.

Javid and Gove consider ‘stop Boris’ joint bid for Tory leadership after May

Sajid Javid is floating the idea of a ‘dream ticket’ with Michael Gove as Chancellor that could see him become Prime Minister and would also shut Boris Johnson out of Downing Street, MailOnline can reveal.

The pair are mulling whether Jeremy Hunt could be offered Home Secretary to drop his candidacy as part of the pact, while fellow Brexiteers Penny Mordaunt and Andrea Leadsom could also be handed promotions to fall into line, allies of Mr Javid have suggested.

The ‘Stop Boris’ plot came as Mr Johnson – who is joint-favourite with Mr Gove to be the next Tory leader – backed Mrs May’s Brexit deal only to pronounce it ‘dead’ hours later.

The Prime Minister on Wednesday offered to sacrifice her leadership to win rebel Tories’ backing for her deal, saying she will quit on May 22 if her deal passes this week.

If the deal does not pass on Friday, May could stay and Brexit will thrown into chaos with rebel MPs trying to force a softer exit from the EU and ministers threatening to call an election.

But Boris is now reportedly insisting Mrs May steps down even if her deal fails. MailOnline can reveal there are genuine fears that unless Mr Johnson’s rivals agree a deal ahead of a leadership campaign their support could splinter, opening the door for the former Foreign Secretary to take over. 

As many as eight Cabinet ministers are expected to put their names forward and several are already out on manoeuvres today with former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab positioning himself as the No Deal candidate.

Speaking on Thursday he said Mrs May should return to Brussels and demand they reopen negotiations so Britain can achieve a ‘legally-binding exit from the Irish backstop’.

He added: ‘I think we should have sensible conversations over the two weeks we’ve got left around the suite of No Deal arrangements that can be made to mitigate any of the potential damage on either side’.   

 

But senior Tories acknowledge they face an uphill battle. 

Mrs May’s DUP allies last night said they would vote against the deal, despite days of frantic negotiations to win them round. 

And despite Mrs May offering to resign before the second stage of Brexit talks, only a trickle of Tory Eurosceptics have switched sides.

MPs will today vote only on the withdrawal agreement, which sets out the separation terms. 

They will not vote on the ‘political declaration’, which sets out the Government’s vision for a close economic partnership outside both the customs union and single market. 

The two documents have previously been bundled together.

Until now, Labour has objected to only the political declaration.

Justice minister Rory Stewart acknowledged that, with a bunch of hardline Eurosceptics dubbed ‘the Spartans’ still holding out, the Government would need the backing of some Labour MPs. 

He said: ‘What happens depends on Labour. The Labour front bench has said their problem is with the political declaration, not the withdrawal agreement. There is no reason for them to oppose it.’

But former minister Richard Benyon said Tory hardliners also had to face the reality that if they continue to reject the deal they will face a soft Brexit – or risk not leaving the EU at all. 

He added: ‘They need to recognise that there will be a softer Brexit if they don’t help get this through. And tough on them, frankly.’

Mr Duncan Smith said: ‘If I believed there was a scintilla of a chance that we could leave the EU with no deal, then I would not vote for Mrs May’s deal today. But the brutal fact is that there isn’t.’

The EU has indicated it is happy for the two elements to be split, with one source saying it was ‘not an issue’. 

If the withdrawal agreement is passed today, the UK’s exit date would be fixed at May 22. But Mrs May would still have to implement both elements of the deal before then – or risk setting up another No Deal ‘cliff edge’ in late May.

Whitehall sources acknowledged that the odds are stacked against her winning today’s vote. 

But they warn she is running out of options. MPs are due to seize control of the parliamentary agenda again on Monday in the hope of identifying a majority for options such as a customs union or a second referendum.

Mrs May has said she will not accept options that breach the last Tory manifesto. 

But Sir Oliver has indicated he will try to legislate on Wednesday to force her hand. One ally of Mrs May said she would have little choice but to call an election, as pursuing a customs union would tear the Tories apart.

As senior Tories began campaigning to replace Mrs May as party leader, one Cabinet minister raged last night: ‘Everyone is building leadership campaigns and just looking at the prize. 

But no one is doing anything to get the deal done.

‘There’s going to be nothing left! They’re going to be fighting to be leader of the opposition.’

Brexit ‘black hole’ caused by MPs ‘chasing rainbows’ is costing jobs, say business leaders 

Jobs are being lost and firms are going to the wall because of the ‘Brexit black hole’ of uncertainty over the British economy, a business leader said.

In an angry tirade at Westminster’s politicians, British Chambers of Commerce director general Adam Marshall hit out at the ‘political turmoil’ caused by Brexit and warned that the country was not ready for a ‘messy’ no-deal scenario.

There was already a ‘growing list of business casualties’ and ‘in many parts of our economy, real world damage is happening right now’.

Dr Marshall said firms faced: ‘Increased costs. Orders lost to competitors elsewhere. Contracts unrenewed or put on hold.

‘Investments postponed, cancelled or diverted elsewhere. Queries from customers that simply can’t be answered.’

He added: ‘Business want to get on and escape from the gravitational pull of the Brexit black hole that has sapped energy, investment and business confidence for far too long.

‘But uncertainty is generating a growing list of business casualties and a litany of rising costs. That damage is happening right now.’

In a stark message to MPs he said: ‘To Westminster we say – we are frustrated, we are angry, you have let British business down.

‘You have focused on soundbites not substance, tactics not strategy and politics not prosperity.

‘Listening without hearing.’

MPs could back Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, agree to a long extension to the Brexit process in order to work out a fresh plan or revoke Article 50 altogether and commit to EU membership for the immediate future, he said.

He acknowledged the options were all controversial but MPs could not carry on ‘chasing rainbows’.

‘Like all of us in business, they need to start making tough decisions, however personally or politically difficult they might be,’ Dr Marshall said.

 IAIN DUNCAN SMITH: If we don’t back the Prime Minister’s deal, the EU’s got us over a barrel

Yes, Theresa May’s deal is very flawed. But after much reflection, I have reluctantly reached the conclusion that when we MPs debate it again today, I should support it. I urge my fellow members of the European Research Group to do so, too.

Previously, I voted against the deal because I have passionately wanted Britain to get better terms, particularly on the Backstop.

However, as a result of some inept negotiation, that has sadly not been the case. We have therefore been left with a difficult choice.

My concern is that if we don’t approve the Prime Minister’s EU withdrawal deal, Brussels will have Britain over a barrel. Westminster would be obliged to come up with an alternative exit proposal by April 12.

Yes, Theresa May’s deal is very flawed. But after much reflection, I have reluctantly reached the conclusion that when we MPs debate it again today, I should support it, writes Iain Duncan Smith

Yes, Theresa May’s deal is very flawed. But after much reflection, I have reluctantly reached the conclusion that when we MPs debate it again today, I should support it, writes Iain Duncan Smith

If that happens, I am convinced that the overwhelmingly Remainer majority in the Commons would try to force through a much softer Brexit, and possibly no Brexit at all.

Not only that. The other 27 national EU leaders now have the power to respond by making it tougher for Britain by demanding an extension to Article 50. This could mean us staying in the EU for another two years and British voters taking part in the European Parliament elections in May.  

If I believed there was a scintilla of a chance that we could leave the EU with no deal, then I would not vote for Mrs May’s deal today. But the brutal fact is that there isn’t.

There are those who argue that the EU won’t offer us an extension to Article 50 because they just want us out. But I don’t agree.

As Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel have made clear, they want Britain to stay and they do not want a No Deal exit.

You only have to look at who, in this country, is arguing for an extension to Article 50 to understand the true threat. They include Tony Blair, who, in recent weeks, has reportedly been briefing France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, on how to force Britain to stay in the EU.

I urge my fellow members of the European Research Group to do so, too, writes Iain Duncan Smith

I urge my fellow members of the European Research Group to do so, too, writes Iain Duncan Smith

Blair has made it clear that he wants a long extension, for one simple reason: He knows it’s a means of stopping Brexit.

While there is much wrong with the Government’s deal, it will allow Britain to leave the EU – even if we voluntarily accept the EU’s rules and regulations during an implementation period.

Repealing the 1972 European Community Act at least means, too, that under a new Conservative leader, we would be able to enter trade talks, which are the next stage of the process, with renewed vigour and confidence as a nation. We would be a sovereign nation again.

Above all, we would be able to achieve the kind of settlement that could lead our country out of the mire of protracted Brexit negotiations, which have meant paralysis at Westminster, and towards a bright and prosperous future.

What happens next? JACK DOYLE answers all the questions on May’s last chance to get her Brexit deal over the line

 What happens today?

MPs will vote on the Mrs May’s withdrawal agreement. This is the vast, legally binding treaty that deals with the exit part of Brexit and contains the money – about £39 billion – the ‘transition period’ to the end of 2020, and the rights of EU citizens and UK citizens on the continent.

How is this different from previous votes?

The first two times Mrs May put her deal to the Commons, MPs were also voting to approve the so-called ‘political declaration’. This sets out the likely shape of the future relationships between the EU and the UK on trade, immigration and security.

Why has she now separated the two?

Short answer: Speaker Bercow. Invoking ancient Commons rules, he declared last week that the Government could not bring back the same motion before the Commons again and again. This threw a grenade into Downing Street’s strategy. After talks with Attorney General Geoffrey Cox yesterday, he agreed to the new plan. There is also a political reason: to heap pressure on Labour to let Brexit pass. Will the party – and all its MPs in Leave seats – which pledged to respect the referendum result once again vote against Brexit on the day we were originally meant to be leaving?

These are the results of the indicative votes on Brexit, in order of preference. It shows that while MPs can't find a consensus they lean heavily towards a softer Brexit or second referendum

These are the results of the indicative votes on Brexit, in order of preference. It shows that while MPs can’t find a consensus they lean heavily towards a softer Brexit or second referendum 

Why do it today?

It’s near enough a last roll of the dice. Mrs May might have preferred to take a few more days to rally her MPs but she is up against a fixed deadline, and also has some momentum in her own party. When the EU agreed last week to extend Article 50 – and delay Britain’s Brexit date – it set her a target of 11pm tonight. If the withdrawal agreement is passed by then, she would have until May 22 to pass the rest of it, and related Brexit legislation, and get out. If not, the extension to Brexit is only until April 12, less than two weeks away.

What are the chances of success?

Slim at best. The DUP has already announced it will vote against it. Despite the best efforts of Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson, who was drafted in to try to win the Unionists over, they don’t appear to be budging. Labour will tell its MPs to vote against, calling the proposal ‘the blindest of blind Brexits’, even though the party has accepted in principle the need for the withdrawal agreement and its claim to respect the referendum result. There are also about 50 hardline Brexiteer Tory MPs who are refusing to back the deal. But Labour MPs in Leave seats will come under huge pressure to vote in favour or abstain.

What happens if it passes?

We wouldn’t be guaranteed to leave in an orderly fashion, but it would be a huge step forward. That is a victory ministers would bite your hand off for. The next hurdle would be actually getting the agreement into law via the Withdrawal Act, as well as the political declaration, not to mention any other Brexit legislation – all before May. If Parliament doesn’t manage this, or request another extension, Britain would leave with No Deal, and no transition, on May 22.

How MP's could split for a third vote on Theresa May's withdrawal deal due to be heard in the Commons today

How MP’s could split for a third vote on Theresa May’s withdrawal deal due to be heard in the Commons today 

What if it doesn’t pass?

The chaos continues, and the ticking clock gets louder. They could try to have another go next week, but they would be up against a near-impossible April 12 deadline. As Parliament won’t allow No Deal, the UK would be forced to go back to the EU cap in hand to ask for a longer extension of at least a year. That would mean the UK would take part in European Parliament elections in May. Mrs May has repeatedly said she would not swallow a Brexit delay beyond June.

What about this week’s ‘indicative’ votes?

Another key factor. After the process of voting on alternative Brexit options orchestrated by Sir Oliver Letwin failed to find an answer on Wednesday, he’s going to have another go too. On Monday, expect all the alternatives to be put back before MPs – a customs union, a second referendum, the ‘Norway model’ and No Deal. If one passes – and customs union appears to be the only real runner – MPs plan to pass legislation on Wednesday to compel Mrs May to do what they say.

What happens then?

If the Commons agrees to a customs union Brexit, she faces a gruesome choice. Could she really accept something which contradicts her manifesto and delivers a Brexit she knows is worse than hers, and would rip the Tory Party into pieces? Could she try to ‘prorogue’ Parliament – ending the session, suspending the Commons for a few days then coming back to have another go at her deal and killing off any customs union law in the process? Or could she hit the last emergency button at her disposal, and call a General Election?

 

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