Britain announces 176 more Covid-19 deaths

Britain today announced 176 more coronavirus deaths as government experts estimated up to 3,000 people are still getting infected each day in England but the crucial R rate has dropped in every region.

Department of Health chiefs say the official number of laboratory-confirmed victims now stands at 43,906 — but separate government figures show the UK topped the dreaded 50,000 mark a month ago.  

Britain recorded more than 1,000 daily fatalities during the darkest days of its crisis but the outbreak has slowed drastically in the past month. For comparison, only 155 deaths were recorded yesterday.

Government data shows 154 Covid-19 victims were recorded last Wednesday, followed by 184 and 250 in the two weeks before. 

But the rolling seven-day average of daily deaths is still 118, exactly the same as it was this point last week. Analysis shows it is the first Wednesday to Wednesday period since the start of April that the daily average hasn’t dropped. 

Separate data released today — by a team at Public Health England and Cambridge University — predicted up to 3,000 people are still getting infected in England every day, including 1,000 in the Midlands.

The team, who have made estimates about the outbreak several times since May, believe the R rate has dropped in every region to be between 0.7-0.9 and upped their estimate of the death rate, saying it is thought to kill 1.1 per cent of people.

In other coronavirus developments in Britain today:

  • Leicester-style local lockdowns are ‘just days away’ from being imposed after dozens of towns and cities saw coronavirus cases surge in the past week, government sources claimed;  
  • Donald Trump was accused of ‘undermining’ the global Covid-19 fight by buying up almost the entire global supply of remdesivir — one of only two drugs approved to treat the disease on the NHS;
  • Turkey said it expects to be included in the UK’s plan for quarantine-free air bridges to kick start holidays — as the release of a list of safe countries was delayed again;
  • Retailer John Lewis is expected to axe stores and workers as well as jobs at its sister business Waitrose while Harrods revealed it must slash around 700 posts as coronavirus continues to choke Britain’s high streets;
  • Prominent Tory MP David Davis accused Public Health England of being ‘over-controlling’ amid mounting pressure on Number 10 to scrap the agency over its handling of the Covid-19 crisis;
  • Covid-19 may cause priapism, doctors have warned after an infected 62-year-old in France was struck down with an erection that lasted longer than four hours; 
  • Around 1,000 grieving relatives of coronavirus victims are preparing legal action to force a public inquiry after accusing the government of ‘gambling’ with lives by failing to lock down fast enough.

HOW DEADLY IS THE VIRUS?

The Cambridge-PHE team looked at the deaths across England to work out an estimated infection-fatality rate – the percentage of people who will die if they caught the virus.

They suggested COVID-19 kills 1.1 per cent of people it infects, which would make it eleven times deadlier than seasonal flu. But they admitted it could be as low as 0.79 or as high as 1.4 per cent. 

AGE GROUP

OVERALL

0-4

5-14

15-24

25-44

45-64

65-74

75+ 

DEATH RATE

1.1%

0.00046%

0.0012%

0.004%

0.027%

0.41% 

2.7%

17% 

SO, HOW DOES IT COMPARE TO OTHER ESTIMATES?

  • 0.1% FLU
  • 0.19% ANTIBODY SAMPLE FROM HELSINKI, FINLAND 
  • 0.37% ANTIBODY SAMPLE FROM GANGELT, GERMANY 
  • 0.4% ANTIBODY SAMPLE FROM STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN 
  • 0.75% EXPERT ESTIMATE FROM REVIEW OF 13 STUDIES 
  • 0.79% ANTIBODY SAMPLE FROM NEW YORK CITY

Department of Health figures released today showed 226,398 tests were carried out or posted the day before. The number includes antibody tests for frontline NHS and care workers.

But bosses again refused to say how many people were tested, meaning the exact number of Brits who have been swabbed for the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been a mystery for a month — since May 22.

Health chiefs also reported 829 more cases of Covid-19. Government statistics show the official size of the UK’s  outbreak now stands at 313,483 cases. But the actual size of the outbreak is estimated to be in the millions, based on antibody testing data.

The daily death data does not represent how many Covid-19 patients died within the last 24 hours — it is only how many fatalities have been reported and registered with the authorities.

The data does not always match updates provided by the home nations. Department of Health officials work off a different time cut-off, meaning daily updates from Scotland as well as Northern Ireland are always out of sync.

And the count announced by NHS England every afternoon — which only takes into account deaths in hospitals — does not match up with the DH figures because they work off a different recording system.

For instance, some deaths announced by NHS England bosses will have already been counted by the Department of Health, which records fatalities ‘as soon as they are available’. 

NHS England today posted 50 deaths in hospitals across the country. Wales recorded six Covid-19 fatalities in all settings, followed by one in Scotland and none again in Northern Ireland.  

The death figures come as a PHE/Cambridge team updated their real-time estimates of the coronavirus outbreak in England.

It estimated that 5.62million people across the country – or 9 per cent of the population – has already had the coronavirus.

Academics behind the modelling predicted that 5.62million people had been infected across the country in its projection at the start of June.

The rate is similar to data seen from a separate antibody surveillance scheme carried out by PHE, which suggested the rate was 8.5 per cent.

But it is higher than data from a separate ONS sample, which puts the national level of infection at around 6.78 per cent. 

HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE CAUGHT THE VIRUS IN YOUR REGION? 

REGION 

ENGLAND

EAST

LONDON

MIDLANDS

NE AND YORKS

NORTH WEST

SOUTH EAST 

SOUTH WEST 

TOTAL CASES

5,160,000

502,000

1,600,000

957,000

633,000

745,000

544,000

184,000

‘ATTACK RATE’

9%

8%

18%

9%

7%

11%

6%

3% 

What is the attack rate? The Cambridge-PHE team used this term to describe the percentage of any given group that has been infected. For example, an attack rate of 20 per cent in London suggests one in five people living in the capital have already had the virus. 

How accurate is the above number? The experts gave a range of numbers for each region and settled on their best guess, which was the number quoted above. The full ranges were:

ENGLAND: 4,200,000 – 6,880,000 (8% – 12%)

EAST: 403,000 – 672,000 (6% – 10%)

LONDON: 1,300,000 – 2,110,000 (15% – 24%)

MIDLANDS: 774,000 – 1,280,000 (7% – 12%)

NE AND YORKS: 511,000 – 849,000 (6% – 10%)

NORTH WEST: 602,000 – 1,000,000 (9% – 14%)

SOUTH EAST: 436,000 – 734,000 (5% – 8%)

SOUTH WEST: 146,000 – 249,000 (3% – 4%)

Analysis of the PHE/Cambridge data showed London has been, by far, the worst-hit region of England (18 per cent). At the peak of the capital’s crisis – said to be the same day lockdown was imposed – 140,000 are thought to have caught the infection.

In comparison, only 3 per cent of people in the South West are thought to have been struck down by the coronavirus.

The team claim between 1,500 and 5,780 people caught the virus across England on June 26 and that the rate has been fairly stable since the start of May.

The team calculated that the crucial ‘R’ reproduction rate fell to just 0.46 in the capital in the aftermath of the lockdown being introduced.

However, the rate in London — as well as other regions — slowly began to creep up to between 0.8 and 0.9 by mid-May but has dropped or remained stable in the past month.

At the beginning of the outbreak London was the worst affected region but the latest numbers suggest it is now ahead of all but two regions in terms of recovery.

The data, published by the university, suggests London is recording just 290 cases each day – behind only the South West (68) and the North East (155).

In contrast, the Midlands – home to Leicester – is recording 1,030 daily infections and has an R rate of 0.89, the highest for any region in the country.

Meanwhile, the team’s modelling shows only one death occurs in every 91 cases – giving it an infection-fatality rate of around 1.1 per cent.

Studies conducted around the world have produced a slightly lower figure, suggesting it is up to eight times deadlier than seasonal flu – which kills 0.1 per cent of cases.

The PHE/Cambridge team admitted the actual infection-fatality rate could be as low as 0.79 or as high as 1.4 per cent.

And the study showed huge variation between different age groups, warning the virus has an infection-fatality rate of around 17 per cent for over-75s. 

HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE REALLY BEING INFECTED EACH DAY IN ENGLAND?

The number of people catching the coronavirus each day in England remains a mystery — official estimates last month revealed wildly varying statistics.

Public Health England and the University of Cambridge experts predicted 16,700 new infections were cropping up each day.

But the Office for National Statistics, which calculates a weekly measure, suggested that only 5,570 people are catching the virus on a daily basis, on average.

An unofficial app being run by King’s College London, based on people self-reporting their symptoms, even estimated there were 9,400 new cases each day.

But all three of the most recent estimates made by each team are now very close to each other.

For example, Public Health England and Cambridge, who aim to give a snapshot of the entire nation, now say cases have dropped to below 3,000.

The ONS’s most recent estimate — of 3,100 daily cases — is based on swab testing samples of 25,000 people. It predicts only new cases in the community, not hospital patients who people who live in institutions or homes. 

The app run by King’s College, on the other hand, only counts people who get symptoms — and many don’t. It put the most recent estimate as low as 1,900 daily cases last week.

All the figures should be taken with a pinch of salt and used together, scientists say.

Testing figures do not show the true number of people infected because many people catch the virus but never test positive for it, either because they don’t realise they are sick, because they couldn’t get a test, or because their result was wrong.

But it is below 0.027 per cent for anyone under the age of 44 – the equivalent of one death for every 3,700 coronavirus cases.

For people between the ages of 45 and 64, the team said the death rate was around 0.41 per cent while the rate was approximately 2.7 per cent for people aged between 65 and 74.

The number of people catching the coronavirus each day in England remains a mystery — official estimates last month revealed wildly varying statistics.

Public Health England and the University of Cambridge experts predicted 16,700 new infections were cropping up each day.

But the Office for National Statistics, which calculates a weekly measure, suggested that only 5,570 people are catching the virus on a daily basis, on average. And an unofficial app being run by King’s College London, based on people self-reporting their symptoms, even estimated there were 9,400 new cases each day.

But all three of the most recent estimates made by each team are now very close to each other.

For example, Public Health England and Cambridge, who aim to give a snapshot of the entire nation, now say cases have dropped to below 3,000.

The ONS’s most recent estimate — of 3,100 daily cases — is based on swab testing samples of 25,000 people. It predicts only new cases in the community, not hospital patients who people who live in institutions or homes. 

The app run by King’s College, on the other hand, only counts people who get symptoms — and many don’t. It put the most recent estimate as low as 1,900 daily cases last week.

All the figures should be taken with a pinch of salt and used together, scientists say.

Testing figures do not show the true number of people infected because many people catch the virus but never test positive for it, either because they don’t realise they are sick, because they couldn’t get a test, or because their result was wrong.

HOW MANY PEOPLE HAVE REALLY DIED OF THE CORONAVIRUS?

Department of Health: 43,575 (June 29)

Department of Health’s latest death count for all settings stands at 43,575, as of June 29.

This only counts people who have been officially tested for Covid-19 and diagnosed by the Department of Health. 

National statistical bodies: 54,541 (June 21)

Data from the Office for National Statistics shows 49,610 people had died and had Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate in England and Wales by June 19. This includes people who were tested and also those not officially diagnosed.

Matching data from Scotland (National Records of Scotland) shows 4,119 people had been killed there by coronavirus up to June 21, while Northern Ireland (Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency) recorded 812 up to June 19. 

These are more accurate than the Department of Health’s count but are 10 days out of date because it takes so long to process death certificates.

Excess deaths: 65,079

The total number of excess deaths has passed 65,000. 

Excess deaths are considered to be an accurate measure of the number of people killed by the pandemic because they include a broader spectrum of victims.

As well as including people who may have died with Covid-19 without ever being tested, the data also shows how many more people died because their medical treatment was postponed, for example, or who didn’t or couldn’t get to hospital when they were seriously ill.

Data from England and Wales shows there has been an extra 59,187 deaths between March 20 and June 19, as well as 4,917 in Scotland and 975 in Northern Ireland.

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