Britain announces 75 more Covid-19 deaths, taking preliminary total number of victims to 42,536

Britain today recorded 75 more coronavirus deaths in the lowest Saturday rise post-lockdown, taking the total number of victims to 42,536.

The preliminary death figure is calculated by adding up coronavirus deaths across the UK in the last 24 hours, but it does not take into account fatalities in care homes in England.

It means that the total figure announced later today by the Department of Health has the potential to be significantly higher. 

Broken down, the total of 75 includes 71 more deaths in hospitals in England, two in total across Scotland, one in Wales and one in Northern Ireland. Today’s figure is the lowest Saturday jump since March 21, two days before lockdown when just 56 fatalities were recorded. 

It comes after it was revealed the coronavirus’s reproduction ‘R’ rate is still on the brink of spiralling out of control in three regions of England, despite the UK’s alert level being downgraded and plans to end lockdown within a fortnight being put into motion. 

SAGE scientists estimate the R – the average number of people a Covid-19 patient infects – is hovering close to the dreaded number of one in London, the North West and the Midlands, despite being lower for the UK as a whole. 

But scientists told MailOnline today that using the R to assess the UK’s crisis is becoming less useful because of falling prevalence of the disease in the community.

In other coronavirus developments today: 

• Drinkers have gathered outside pubs across Britain amid plans to give al fresco garden and street drinking the green-light, as scientists clear path for Boris to slash two-metre rule;
• Fewer than 10 countries will have an ‘air bridge’ to the UK and travelers arriving from elsewhere could have to pay for a COVID-19 test to avoid 14-day quarantine;
• The Government has been accused of underplaying coronavirus death toll at height of crisis as it is revealed more than 1,000 people died every day in the UK for 22 consecutive days;
• Boris plans to get all children back to school in September as Education Secretary Gavin Williamson announced plans to double the size of class ‘bubbles’ to allow up to 30 pupils in classrooms at once;
• The ‘R’ number is hovering close to one in the North West, Midlands and London – but scientists say it’s NOT time to panic because lower number of cases makes measurements more volatile.

Number 10’s scientific advisory panel SAGE revealed the reproduction rate – the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infects – is still between 0.7 and 0.9, meaning the coronavirus is firmly in retreat after terrorizing Britain for months. It must stay below one or Britain will face another crisis. Separate data released for the first time also claimed the UK’s current growth rate – how the number of new daily cases is changing day-by-day – could be as low as minus 4 per cent. If the rate becomes greater than zero, the disease could once again spiral out of control

The R is thought to be between 0.8 and 1.0 in the Midlands, the highest of any region in Britain, and slightly lower in London and the North West, where estimates put it in the range of 0.7 and 1.0.  

Covid-19’s reproduction rate must stay below one or cases will start to grow exponentially again and the UK could be faced with a second wave of the virus.  

For example, an R rate of just 1.2 would mean every 10 people who became infected would pass the virus onto 12 more people. Those 12 would, in turn, infect 14 people who would then pass the disease on to more than 17, and so on. 

Carl Heneghan, professor of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University, said the fewer infected patients there are, the greater the margin for error when estimating the R value, especially when looking at specific areas of the UK. 

For example, if there are only 10 cases and one of them infects three people, it would push the R rate up significantly and skew the average.      

Professor Heneghan told MailOnline: ‘There is a problem with using the R rate now, as infection comes down to very low levels. The R will fluctuate, so you would expect the R to become a less accurate measurement of the epidemic. No-one will get a handle on the R rate when 80% people are asymptomatic and the virus is circulating at such low levels. 

‘What really matters is looking at data such as hospital admissions, 999 calls, GP consultation rates and NHS 111 interactions. And when we look at these, all of them are reassuringly coming down.’    

It comes after Britain’s ‘Covid-alert’ level was downgraded from level four to level three after scientists confirmed that the epidemic is shrinking by 4 per cent every day.