Britain could suffer 40,000 coronavirus deaths in the first wave of the outbreak, a leading public health expert dramatically warned today.
Professor Anthony Costello, of University College London, blasted the Government’s handling of the crisis, saying it was ‘too slow’ to react.
Almost 14,000 people in Britain have died of COVID-19 already, with the UK’s death toll behind only the US, Italy, Spain and France.
Giving evidence to MPs today, he said Britain could experience tens of thousands of more deaths before the first wave of the deadly infection is over.
He warned it could take up to six more waves before at least 40million Britons have been infected to build-up the nation’s herd immunity.
However, Professor Costello – a former World Health Organization official – also said in a newspaper interview the UK could be hit by up to ten waves.
MPs were also told that healthcare staff are ‘genuinely concerned’ about the safety of patients being compromised if workers are spread too thinly.
And the head of Royal College of Nursing revealed that sick NHS workers are being forced to drive two hours away to be tested for coronavirus.
In other developments to the coronavirus crisis engulfing Britain today:
- The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge revealed hey home schooled their children during the Easter holidays without telling them;
- London Mayor Sadiq Khan called for compulsory masks to be worn on tubes and buses;
- Nicola Sturgeon took a swipe at government secrecy and urged ministers to treat the public like grown-ups;
- Questions about the UK’s coronavirus screening policy were raised after it emerged 15,000 people are flying into Britain without tests every day;
- England 1966 World Cup winner and Leeds United legend Norman Hunter died aged 76, a week after being admitted to hospital with coronavirus;
- A diabetic mother-of-three died with coronavirus a week after giving birth to her third daughter
- Coronavirus hopes were raised after an experimental Ebola drug was found to help critically-ill patients recover within a week.
Professor Anthony Costello blasted the Government’s handling of the crisis, saying it is ‘a total mess’ and the UK has been wrong every step of the way
Giving evidence to MPs today, Professor Costello said Britain could experience tens of thousands of more deaths before the first wave of the deadly infection is over
In the House of Commons Health Select Committee today, Professor Costello said: ‘This wave could see 40,000 deaths by the time it’s over.’
Health chiefs have already admitted that the UK would have achieved a ‘good result’ if it can keep the COVID-19 death toll below 20,000.
The outbreak – which began spread on British soil on February 28, almost a month before the Government sent the UK into lockdown – has killed 13,729 Brits.
But the true death toll is feared to be up to 50 per cent higher because of a delay in recording deaths in hospitals and the failure to include fatalities in care homes.
Britain was sent into lockdown on March 23 after an apocalyptic prediction that 500,000 people could die of the SARS-CoV-2 virus without immediate action.
The Imperial College London scientists estimated that strict measures to curb the spread of the virus would see the eventual death toll sit at around 20,000.
Other world-leading scientists have projected the UK could see in excess of 60,000 deaths, and be the worst-hit nation in Europe.
But the same Washington University team behind that startling figure has since revised its prediction to around 23,000 – closer to the estimate by Number 10.
In the committee, Professor Costello also warned that Britain could face several more waves of COVID-19 before it builds up a national tolerance.
He said: ‘The recent estimates, even from the chief scientific officer, is after this wave we could have only maybe 10-15 per cent of the population infected.
‘So the idea of herd immunity would mean another five, six waves, maybe, in order to get to 60 per cent.’ Last night he said the UK could have 10 more waves.
In a scathing interview, Professor Costello told the Daily Telegraph: ‘We won’t get herd immunity if what the latest models show are correct.’
He pointed to a Dutch study that found just three per cent of people have developed antibodies – substances made by the body in response to infection.
Chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance warned 60 per cent of Brits – 40million people – need to be infected to slow the spread of the virus.
It sparked concerns the Government was planning to adopt the controversial herd immunity policy to keep Britain running.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock was forced to address the backlash to confirm the controversial strategy was ‘not our goal or policy’.
Herd immunity involves a large proportion of the population being allowed to be infected with the virus to achieve mass-immunity and prevent future waves.
It is normally achieved through vaccinations – but without a drug or proven jab then people would unnecessarily die if they were allowed to be infected.
COVID-19’s death rate is estimated to be around 0.5 per cent, which means 200,000 could die through a herd immunity strategy without medical treatments.
Professor Costello, director of University College London’s global health team, fears Number 10 is still seeking herd immunity.
He told The Telegraph: ‘They keep talking about flattening the curve, which implies they are seeking herd immunity.’
Flattening the curve is the term given to controlling an outbreak, spreading cases out over a longer period and easing pressure on overwhelmed hospitals.
Professor Costello, former director of maternal, child and adolescent health at the World Health organization, said Downing Street has to change policy.
Startling models from Imperial College London saw the Government change tack after scientists warned that up to 500,000 people could die without any action
Graph shows the UK’s average daily coronavirus deaths for the previous seven days, based on official figures. The dip at the end shows the numbers falling for two days – the first drop since the crisis began. Although it could be a sign of numbers plateauing, Chris Whitty yesterday said he expected a rise in deaths today as officials catch up with a lag in reporting over Easter
Blasting the current strategy, he told the newspaper: ‘What we should have done is crush the epidemic and then keep it down.’
Professor Costello is set to give evidence to the Commons Health Committee today, where he is expected to warn of repeated waves in Britain.
In the same session, Mr Hancock will face questions from MPs over the response to the coronavirus crisis in Britain.
Yesterday Number 10 announced Britain’s lockdown would be extended for at least another three weeks despite growing alarm at the economic consequences.
Professor Costello accused the Government of being a ‘one-club golfer’ for relying solely on a lockdown working.
He said: ‘It should be combined with testing, tracing and digital apps that have been used so successfully in South Korea.’
South Korea bucked the global trend and decided against a lockdown to contain its COVID-19 outbreak – which peaked in February.
Officials at the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have only recorded 10,000 cases of the deadly virus. They tested thousands more suspected cases.
Britain has promised to carry out 100,000 tests a day by the end of April – but figures show it is currently carrying out fewer than 20,000 swabs daily.
Data last night showed only 18,665 tests were performed on Wednesday, despite the claim from the PM’s spokesman that the UK can conduct 35,000 a day.
The UK gave up on testing all suspected patients early on in the outbreak, to the fury of the WHO which said the pandemic cannot be fought ‘blindfolded’.
And ministers also gave up on tracing infected patients’ close contacts, allowing the virus to spread effectively unchecked.
Research for MailOnline by Redfield & Wilton found 80 per cent would not feel safe going back to everyday life at the moment
Around half the public are now resigned to the draconian ‘social distancing’ curbs being in place into June
A graph showing the number of new infections in various countries, starting on the day they first recorded five infections. The graph shows a rolling average, meaning it shows trends in the data rather than exact figures. The Y-axis is scaled due to the large difference in numbers between worst-hit countries such as USA and Britain, and countries which were less badly hit, such as Australia and South Korea. In an evenly-scaled graph, the worst-hit countries’ readings would show a much steeper curve
Professor Costello also said the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) – Number 10’s main advisory panel – ‘have got most of it wrong’.
It comes as the Government is under growing pressure to reveal the identities of the dozens of experts who sit on the group.
MPs have warned that the lack of transparency could harm public confidence in the official response to the crisis, which has already attracted criticism.
Government sources said members of the group and its committees had received death threats, fuelled by Britain’s response to the pandemic.
It comes as Dutch researchers yesterday found that only three per cent of the population has developed antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
The number is an indication of what percentage of the Dutch population may have already had the disease.
Ministers in the European country – home to 17million people – said it means several hundred thousand people may have already been infected.
One study of the town at the centre of Germany’s outbreak found as many as 15 per cent of people may have already been infected with the virus.
Other research has showed that many recovered coronavirus patients have barely-detectable signs of past infection.
A Chinese study last week revealed a third of past patients have very low levels of antibodies in their blood, which could make them hard to test for.
British experts said the finding explains why the UK has repeatedly delayed rolling the tests out to the public, despite promises they were in the pipeline.