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CDC says coronavirus deaths will be ‘much lower’ than the White House’s 240,000 forecast

The Center for Disease Control has said that the number of coronavirus fatalities will be ‘much lower’ than the White House’s apocalyptic forecast of 240,000 dead.

CDC Director Robert Redfield predicted that the number of Americans that will die from the killer virus could be well underneath the shock numbers announced by President Trump last week if Americans keep following social distancing guidelines.

The president issued the grave prediction last Tuesday that there will be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the US if the nation continues on its current path.  

The number of deaths has now topped 12,000 and experts have warned of dark days ahead, with the crisis not expected to peak until April 16. 

CDC Director Robert Redfield said that the US death toll could be ‘much lower’ than dire forecasts made by the Trump administration if Americans keep following social distancing guidelines

But CDC boss Redfield gave a more positive outlook Monday, saying that if people continue to follow social distancing guidelines then the deaths will be far lower than the dire forecasts.

‘If we just social distance, we will see this virus and this outbreak basically decline, decline, decline. And I think that’s what you’re seeing,’ Redfield said in a radio interview with KVOI. 

‘I think you’re going to see the numbers are, in fact, going to be much less than what would have been predicted by the models.’ 

Redfield said the ‘staggering’ figures of 240,000 – which would see more Americans dying from the pandemic than in the Vietnam War – were based on the assumption that only about half of Americans ‘would pay attention to the recommendations’ around social distancing.  

‘What we’re seeing is a large majority of the American public are taking the social distancing recommendations to heart,’ he said. 

‘And I think that’s the direct consequence of why you’re seeing the numbers are going to be much, much, much, much lower.’  

Redfield added that the projected figures are a way to beta test how resources and intervention strategies might flatten the curve. 

The White House issued the grave prediction last Tuesday that there will be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the US if the nation continues on its current path

The White House issued the grave prediction last Tuesday that there will be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the US if the nation continues on its current path

The shocking chart released by the White House. It shows that a staggering 1.5-2.2 million will die if social distancing guidelines are completely ignored

The shocking chart released by the White House. It shows that a staggering 1.5-2.2 million will die if social distancing guidelines are completely ignored

The White House made the shock prediction Tuesday that there will be between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the US if the nation continues on its trajectory and current social distancing guidelines are maintained.

More shocking still, his administration warned that a staggering 1.5-2.2 million will die if social distancing guidelines are completely ignored. 

Trump said the estimates were based on data ‘that has been, I think, brilliantly put together.’  

This White House image charts the predicted number of deaths per day from the virus

This White House image charts the predicted number of deaths per day from the virus 

This White House slide shows the cases per day from the virus across the different states

This White House slide shows the cases per day from the virus across the different states 

But several experts have since cast doubt on the numbers.  

Surgeon General Jerome Adams said Tuesday he thinks the number of deaths will be lower. 

‘I really do believe that we will come in under those projections as long as we can continue to do our part for 30 days,’ he told Good Morning America. 

More than 12,000 Americans have died from coronavirus as of Tuesday afternoon 

Last week, it emerged that some of the president’s own top advisors were also left baffled by the figures. 

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the US’s top medical expert on the pandemic and a member of President Trump’s coronavirus task force, cast doubt on the figures during a task force meeting this week, three anonymous White House officials told The Washington Post.

‘I’ve looked at all the models. I’ve spent a lot of time on the models. They don’t tell you anything,’ Fauci said, according to the sources.

The estimated peak day of the US outbreak is expected to occur in 10 days on April 16 with a projected 3,130 deaths that day, according to forecasters at the University of Washington's School of Medicine

The estimated peak day of the US outbreak is expected to occur in 10 days on April 16 with a projected 3,130 deaths that day, according to forecasters at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine 

Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on April 15 - the day before the peak death toll - where an estimated 25,000 ventilators, 140,000 beds and 29,000 ICU beds will be needed. The data shows the pandemic could be over quicker than initially thought and level out as early as June

Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on April 15 – the day before the peak death toll – where an estimated 25,000 ventilators, 140,000 beds and 29,000 ICU beds will be needed. The data shows the pandemic could be over quicker than initially thought and level out as early as June

While the data still shows a predicted 81,000 deaths from COVID-19 over the next four months, the estimate range has lowered. It was initially thought the range could be as high as 162,000 deaths but it is now predicted to be as high as 136,000 fatalities

While the data still shows a predicted 81,000 deaths from COVID-19 over the next four months, the estimate range has lowered. It was initially thought the range could be as high as 162,000 deaths but it is now predicted to be as high as 136,000 fatalities

‘You can’t really rely upon models.’ 

The White House has kept quiet over the numbers, even as far as refusing to explain how they were calculated or providing the underlying data behind the shock statistics.   

Deborah Birx, coordinator of the coronavirus task force, said the figures were based on five or six modelers, including from Imperial College in Britain and Harvard, Columbia and Northeastern universities.  

But medical experts whose models were used to arrive at the estimates have now spoken out, raising questions over where the figures have come from. 

Columbia University epidemiologist Jeffrey Shaman said his own work on coronavirus cited by the White House could not be used to predict as far ahead as the total death toll.

‘We don’t have a sense of what’s going on in the here and now, and we don’t know what people will do in the future,’ he told the Post. 

‘We don’t know if the virus is seasonal.’

Shaman said he believes the death toll could be less than the forecast: ‘I think we can come in under 100,000 deaths. I do. The jury is not yet in on this.’ 

More than 12,000 Americans have now died from coronavirus as the pandemic continues to spread across the 50 states, the real-time tally from John Hopkins reveals. 

The death toll has skyrocketed by roughly 1,799 in the last 24 hours, taking the number of fatalities to 12,876. 

Social distancing: Voters line up outside a fire station to vote in Wisconsin's primary in Hudson while maintaining social distancing rules

Social distancing: Voters line up outside a fire station to vote in Wisconsin’s primary in Hudson while maintaining social distancing rules

Holidaymakers in Miami Beach, Florida, crowded on beaches ignoring social distancing rules on March 18

Holidaymakers in Miami Beach, Florida, crowded on beaches ignoring social distancing rules on March 18 

People bike on a crowded bike path on Venice Beach, California, on March 21

People bike on a crowded bike path on Venice Beach, California, on March 21

Figures show the number of fatalities has increased drastically by more than 8,000 in the first week of April compared to the entire month of March when 4,000 deaths were recorded.

The harrowing figures come as health officials warned this week would be one of the hardest for Americans given the death toll is expected to continue to rise in such stark numbers.

Data has predicted the peak of the pandemic is still yet to hit on April 16 where 3,310 deaths are expected to occur in 24 hours, according to forecasters at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine. 

This peak is sooner than first predicted and means the pandemic could be over quicker than initially thought and level out as early as June. 

Peak resource use for hospitals is predicted to occur on April 15 – the day before the peak death toll – where an estimated 25,000 ventilators, 140,000 beds and 29,000 ICU beds will be needed. 

President Trump warned Americans Saturday to prepare for this week to be one of the ‘toughest’ weeks the country could face during the pandemic.  

‘This will probably be the toughest week – between this week and next week,’ Trump said during his daily White House briefing.

‘There will be a lot of death, unfortunately. 

The Surgeon General agreed Sunday that the worst is about to come, saying this week will be the ‘hardest and saddest’ for most Americans and that it will be ‘our Pearl Harbor moment and our 9/11 moment.’ 

The number of infections also continues to rise, with 398,283 confirmed cases across the country. 

Read more at DailyMail.co.uk