Coronavirus pandemic could be over in the UK by September 30: Scientific model predicts virus will continue its steady decline with NO second wave
- Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the Covid-19 pandemic
- United States will extinguish the infection by November 11, the team discovered
- The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time
- Also tracks actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given as of May 12
- Here’s how to help people impacted by Covid-19
Coronavirus could be completely wiped out in the UK on September 30, according to modelling from scientists.
A team at the Singapore University of Technology plotted data from the pandemic to pinpoint the date cases will die out in countries hardest hit by the disease.
They predict a total eradication of the bug in Britain with no new cases – or a second wave – at all from the end of September.
The US, where most Covid-19 deaths have been recorded, will extinguish the infection by November 11.
The model by the Singapore University of Technology predicts the pandemic in the UK will be over by September 30
The US, where most Covid-19 deaths have been recorded, will extinguish the infection by November 11
The model predicts the trajectory of the spread of the virus over time while tracking the actual number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country, as of May 12.
By plotting the acceleration and deceleration rates of each country’s outbreak, the scientists have conjured up a prediction of when the virus will wane.
In other developments to Britain’s coronavirus crisis today:
- There were calls for Boris Johnson’s top aide Dominic Cummings to resign after it emerged he flouted lockdown rules to travel 260miles to his elderly parents’ home;
- It emerged that travel firms are already planning to exploit a loophole in the 14-day quarantine period by flying holidaymakers into UK via Dublin (which is exempt from new isolation rules);
- Labour leader Keir Starmer revealed his children have attended school throughout the coronavirus crisis as he called for classes to resume ‘as soon as possible’;
- Employers were told they will have to pay 25 per cent of wages of furloughed staff from August, raising fears of a wave of redundancies;
- Boris Johnson will drop drop the ‘track’ in his ‘test, track and trace’ system that is designed to get Britain out lockdown because the NHSX app will not be ready for weeks.
This positive news out amid the crisis, which has killed thousands. Pictured: People meeting up in Wandsworth, London, today
This positive news out amid the crisis, which has killed thousands and placed millions under lockdown, will come as relief for many.
Britain today announced 282 more coronavirus deaths, including a 12-year-old with an undisclosed underlying health condition – taking the UK’s total fatalities to 36,675.
However, researchers noted the predictions by nature are likely to be uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors including the restrictions and testing protocols in place in a country.
They write: ‘The wicked and uncertain nature of this pandemic makes the intent for prediction accuracy misleading.’
In Trafalgar Square, people were out and about today. Some sat on the steps leading up to the National Gallery
A large group of surfers gathered together to make the most of the waves at Bournemouth Pier. Lockdown measures were eased this month
‘The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries over time. Predictions are uncertain by nature,’ the report states.
‘Over-optimism based on some predictions is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.’
The study also found predictive monitoring in early May showed the US – and second worst-hit country Brazil- could still suffer for the remainder of the year, without stricter restrictions or a vaccine.
For Italy, which once led the world in the number of coronavirus cases, could recover by October 24, according to modeling as of May 8.