Shocking graphs have revealed the United States is still 11 days away from its coronavirus peak when it is predicted 2,644 people will die in 24 hours across the nation.
The stark new model – created by researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics – also shows the country is also 10 days from its peak resource use, when 262,092 hospital beds will be needed.
That is 87,674 less than the number of beds the U.S. has to its disposal, the predictions show. A staggering 39,727 ICU beds will be required; the estimated shortage of these will be 19,863, it adds.
Researchers also warn 100,000 Americans will die by August 4. Previous White House predictions have put the figure between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the US if the nation continues on its trajectory and current social distancing guidelines are maintained.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics’s model details a grim state-by-state breakdown of when hospitals will be overwhelmed and how many will die.
It allows users to search predictions for any state, not only shows deaths but the demand for hospital services in each state, including the availability of ventilators, general hospital beds, and ICU beds.
The team warns that the protections for each state is assuming that social distancing measures are maintained, such as people staying home and nursing homes barring visitors.
Shocking graphs have revealed the United States is still 11 days away from its coronavirus peak when it is predicted 2,644 people will die in 24 hours across the nation
Researchers also warn 100,000 Americans will die by August 4, pictured. Previous White House predictions have put the figure between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the US if the nation continues on its trajectory and current social distancing guidelines are maintained
The stark new model – created by researchers from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics – also shows the country is also 10 days from its peak resource use, when 262,092 hospital beds will be needed
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics’s model details a grim state-by-state breakdown of when hospitals will be overwhelmed and how many will die. The figures for all beds are shown
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics’s model details a grim state-by-state breakdown of when hospitals will be overwhelmed and how many will die. The figures for all ICU beds are shown
The team warns that the protections for each state is assuming that social distancing measures are maintained, such as people staying home and nursing homes barring visitors
It shows New York – which continues to bear the brunt as the epicenter of the outbreak in the US – will reach its peak in five days with 855 deaths on April 10. It will need more than 76,000 beds a day before.
More than 16,000 people will die by August 4 in New York, the graphs show.
But as the nation looks on in despair at the Empire State, others are fast on track to become the new deadly hotspots.
The figures for Illinois make for particularly grim reading. COVID-19 deaths there are expected to hit 3,386 by August 4 with the state’s peak in 15 days when an estimated 109 people will die in 24 hours.
In Florida the state’s peak is expected on May 4, with 175 deaths over a 24 hour period.
The model shows Michigan will hit its peak in six days, when 173 deaths are predicted on April 11.
It shows New York – which continues to bear the brunt as the epicenter of the outbreak in the US – will reach its peak in five days with 855 deaths on April 10. It will need more than 76,000 beds a day before
In Florida the state’s peak is expected on May 4, with 175 deaths over a 24 hour period
In Georgia the state’s peak is expected on April 25, with 96 deaths over a 24 hour period
In Illinois the state’s peak is expected on April 20, with 109 deaths over a 24 hour period
Louisiana has become a key concern as it reported a jump in deaths to 409 on Saturday.
The graphs show the state will reach its peak in five days, with 76 COVID-19 deaths projected on April 10. More than 1,800 people are predicted to die there by August 4.
The Gulf state’s largest city, New Orleans, where Mardi Gras celebrations in late February are believed to have helped spread the virus before social distancing orders were imposed, has become a focal point of the health crisis.
Patients in New Orleans are dying at twice the rate per capita as in New York.
Louisiana Governor John Edwards said he spoke with Vice President Mike Pence on Saturday – and that he had been promised an additional 200 ventilators from the national stockpile.
California is projected to see 119 COVID-19 deaths on April 26, its predicted peak; 5,068 deaths are projected by August 4.
Washington state, the first epicenter of the outbreak in the US, is predicted to see its peak of the virus in 4 days and experts say nearly 1,000 people could die there by August 4.
In Louisiana the state’s peak is expected on April 10, with 76 deaths over a 24 hour period
In Michigan the state’s peak is expected on April 11, with 173 deaths over a 24 hour period
In New Jersey the state’s peak is expected on April 9, with 104 deaths over a 24 hour period
Massachusetts is expected to see its peak in 12 days and more than 2,300 deaths by August 4.
New Jersey will peak in four days; Georgia in 20.
Dr Ali Mokdad, a professor of Health Metrics Sciences at IHME, explained that the model used mortality rates because when researchers began working on it, the numbers of those tested for the virus were low.
‘There wasn’t enough capacity for testing so we didn’t know how many people are positive,’ he told DailyMail.com.
‘[The graphs] remind us that staying some home is very helpful,’ Dr Mokdad said.
‘It will makes lives on our physicians much easier. We don;t want them to decide which patients are on a ventilator and which aren’t as we’ve seen in other countries, like Italy.’
In Washington the state’s peak is expected on April 9, with 22 deaths over a 24 hour period
In Massachuettes the state’s peak is expected on April 17, with 100 deaths over a 24 hour period
