COVID-19 death toll projections double as states continue to reopen

More than 70,000 people have now died from the coronavirus across the United States – as states like California and Montana move towards reopening despite experts warning that relaxing social distancing could cause a further spike in deaths. 

The death toll has increased by 1,361 in 24 hours, bringing the total number of fatalities to 71,642. 

There are now more than 1.2 million COVID-19 infections across the country. 

The increasing death and infection tolls comes as California moved to ease some of its restrictions this week and a Montana public school was set to become the first in the country to reopen following weeks-long lockdowns.     

In California, Governor Gavin Newsom will ease the state’s stay-at-home orders by Thursday after facing mounting pressure from local leaders to ease the state’s strict lockdown measures.

Some California counties have already reopened in defiance of the state’s ongoing stay-home order. 

More than 70,000 people have now died from the coronavirus across the United States – as states like California and Montana move towards reopening despite experts warning that relaxing social distancing could cause a further spike in deaths 

Newsom said some businesses in the state will receive permission to reopen with restrictions. The phased-in plan allows clothing stores, sporting goods, florists and other retailers to resume operations with curbside pickup. Dining in at restaurants and office reopenings are still prohibited. 

Northern California’s Modoc, Yuba and Sutter counties didn’t wait for permission and opted to reopen restaurants if customers wore masks. 

The Happy Viking Sports Pub and Eatery in Yuba opened its doors to the public for the first time in 50 days on Monday after county officials ruled that restaurants, retail stores and fitness centers could open if patrons and staff obeyed social distancing rules. 

In the Southern California community of Victorville in San Bernardino County, gym owner Jacob Lewis re-opened his business on May 1, without waiting for either state or county officials to give him the green light. 

California is one of about two dozen US states that still have strict coronavirus restrictions in place.

Meanwhile, Willow Creek School in Montana will resume classroom teaching this week after being closed for nearly two months due to the coronavirus pandemic.

In opening its doors to several dozen of its 56 students and 18 staff members on Thursday, the school is going against the advice of some education officials and against the grain of the vast majority of schools that plan to remain closed the rest of the semester.  

A revised coronavirus model has doubled its predicted US death toll to nearly 135,000 by August as social-distancing measures are increasingly relaxed across the country

A revised coronavirus model has doubled its predicted US death toll to nearly 135,000 by August as social-distancing measures are increasingly relaxed across the country

District Superintendent Bonnie Lower said she knows the school is taking a risk in reopening for just 2.5 weeks to end the semester for the students from pre-kindergarten to high school. 

But she said that three-quarters of the parents surveyed in the farm and ranching community with a population of 250 wanted their children to catch up on their studies and experience a little normalcy before the summer break. 

It comes as a newly revised coronavirus model doubled its predicted US death toll to nearly 135,000 by August as social-distancing measures for quelling the pandemic are increasingly relaxed across the country. 

Researchers say the ominous new forecast from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation reflect ‘rising mobility in most US states’ with an easing of business closures and stay-at-home orders expected in 31 states by May 11.  

The projections reinforced warnings from public health experts that a rising clamor to lift restrictions on commerce and social activities – in hopes of healing a ravaged economy – could exact a staggering cost in terms of human lives.  

The latest IHME forecast predicts the number of US deaths from COVID-19 will run from as few as 95,092 to as many as 242,890 by August 4 – with 134,475 lives lost being the most likely middle ground.

By comparison, the previous revision put the middle-case figure at 72,400 deaths, within a range between 59,300 and 114,200 fatalities.  

Some California counties had already announced they would reopen in defiance of the state's ongoing stay-home order. Pictured above in a restaurant in Yuba City, California that reopened on Monday despite state-wide lockdown orders

Some California counties had already announced they would reopen in defiance of the state’s ongoing stay-home order. Pictured above in a restaurant in Yuba City, California that reopened on Monday despite state-wide lockdown orders

A hair salon in Yuba City, California reopened for business on Monday despite the statewide lockdown orders

A hair salon in Yuba City, California reopened for business on Monday despite the statewide lockdown orders

Willow Creek School in Montana will resume classroom teaching this week after being closed for nearly two months due to the coronavirus pandemic

Willow Creek School in Montana will resume classroom teaching this week after being closed for nearly two months due to the coronavirus pandemic

In opening its doors to several dozen of its 56 students and 18 staff members on Thursday, the school is going against the advice of some education officials and against the grain of the vast majority of schools that plan to remain closed the rest of the semester

In opening its doors to several dozen of its 56 students and 18 staff members on Thursday, the school is going against the advice of some education officials and against the grain of the vast majority of schools that plan to remain closed the rest of the semester

The upward spike reflects increasing human interactions as more states begin to ease social-distancing requirements. 

At least 100 million Americans were in states that have already made assertive moves to reopen or had no stay-home orders to begin with.

States home to more than 210 million were taking more gradual steps with partial reopenings or didn’t appear close to reopening at all like epicenter New York. 

In New York, the state that accounts for about a third of all US infections, Governor Andrew Cuomo on Monday outlined plans to ease restrictions on a regional basis. 

Without giving a specific time frame, Cuomo told a daily briefing that construction, manufacturing and the wholesale supply chain would be allowed to start up under the first phase of a four-step return to normality. 

A second phase would permit insurance, retail, administrative support and real estate businesses to open again, followed by restaurants, food services, hotels and accommodation businesses in the third stage, Cuomo said. In the final phase, arts, entertainment and recreation facilities and education would restart.  

Florida began a gradual restart of its economy on Monday. In the first phase, retail merchants and restaurants will open, with indoor patronage limited to 25% of capacity. Eateries are also allowed to open outdoor seating with social distancing, and medical practices can resume elective surgeries and procedures.

In Ohio, Governor Mike DeWine was allowing construction and manufacturing to reopen on Monday, and letting office workers return. 

Here’s where each state is with current lockdown measures: 

Partially reopening

Alabama

Cases: 8,206 – Deaths: 310 

Alabama’s employers and retail stores are allowed to reopen from April 30 at a reduced 50 percent capacity. 

Beaches will reopen but residents have to adhere to social distancing, including not gathering in groups of 10 or more. 

High risk business including theaters, night clubs, fitness centers, barber shops, hair and nail salons will remain closed. 

Bars and restaurants can only have takeaway or curbside pickup.   

The updated order expires May 15.  

Alaska 

Cases: 370 – Deaths: 9 

Reopening of restaurants, stores, hair and nail salons and other businesses started April 24.

Under the new rules in some Alaska territories, restaurants will reopen but are limited to 25 percent capacity and there must be 10 feet between tables and only family members can be seated at the same table.

Salons in Alaska may only accept customers by appointment.

Alaska’s largest city, Anchorage, where some 40 percent of residents live, delayed easing restrictions until April 27. 

Arkansas 

Cases: 3,469 – Deaths: 80 

There is no state-wide stay-at-home order.

Restaurants will open for limited dine-in services from May 1 but can only operate at a third of its normal capacity. 

Gyms and indoor recreational facilities can resume operates from April 30. Restrictions will lift on hair salons and barber shops on May 1. 

State parks will reopen from May 1. 

California 

Cases: 56,168 – Deaths: 2,289 

There is an indefinite stay-at-home order and gatherings in a single room or place are prohibited.

Some businesses in the state will receive permission to reopen as early May 8. Clothing stores, sporting goods, florists and other retailers to resume operations with curbside pickup.

Nonessential businesses are limited to minimum operations or remote work. Dining in at restaurants and office reopenings are still prohibited. 

Essential surgeries are now being allowed in California. 

Six counties in the Bay Area, including San Francisco, have extended its shelter-in-place order until mid-May but will allow construction to restart. 

Three Northern California counties have already reopened in defiance of state orders. 

Colorado 

Cases 16,918 – Deaths 851 

Elective surgeries and retail curbside delivery began April 27. Hair salons, dental offices and tattoo shops can also reopen that date with restrictions. 

Other retail will be allowed to reopen from May 4 with social distancing restrictions. Large workplaces can reopen on May 4 at 50% capacity.   

Restaurants and bars are still limited to takeout only.

The state’s stay-at-home order expired April 26 but residents are still urged to stay home where possible.

Florida 

Cases: 37,439 – Deaths: 1,471 

The state will reopen some business on May 4 except for in Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties. 

Restaurants can offer outdoor seating six-feet between tables and indoor seating at 25% capacity.

Retail can operate at 25% capacity.

Bars, gyms, movie theaters and personal services – like hair salons – are to remain closed.

Some beaches and parks reopened from April 17 if it could be done safely. 

Georgia

Cases: 29,702 – Deaths: 1,271 

Gyms, hair salons, bowling alleys and tattoo parlors can reopen from April 24 as long as owners follow strict social-distancing and hygiene requirements. 

Elective medical procedures can also resume. Movie theaters may resume selling tickets and restaurants limited to takeout orders can return to limited dine-in service from April 27.

At-risk people are urged to remain home until May 13.  

Bars, live performance venues and amusement parks will remain closed. Religious institutions are still urged to hold drive-thru or online services for now.  

Idaho 

Cases: 2,106 – Deaths: 64 

Some business are allowed to offer curbside pick up, drive in and drive thru services. 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only. 

Illinois

Cases: 63,840 – Deaths: 2,662 

From May 1, nonessential retailers can reopen for delivery or offer online orders that can be picked up outside stores.

Face masks are required outdoors. 

Iowa 

Cases: 10,111 – Deaths: 207 

There is no stay-at-home order. 

From May 1, restaurants can open at 50 percent capacity but no more than six people at one table.

Malls, fitness centers, libraries and retail stores can open at 50 percent capacity.

Horse and dog racing tracks can reopen with no spectators.

All other businesses remain closed through May 15.  

Kentucky

Cases: 5,245 – Deaths: 261 

No stay-at-home order but anyone going out in public will have to wear a mask from May 11. 

Dentists, chiropractors, optometrists allowed to start taking non-urgent patients from April 27. Prior to that, those services were only allowed to take urgent appointments.

Outpatient/ambulatory surgery and invasive procedures can begin May 7. Elective and non-urgent procedures can resume at 50 percent capacity from May 13. 

Manufacturing, construction, car dealerships and professional services can start May 11 at 50% capacity.

Retail and houses of worship can begin May 20. Barber shops and salons can reopen from May 25.

Restaurants and bars can likely reopen for dining in June.  

Louisiana 

Cases: 29,996 – Deaths: 2,042 

Bars and restaurants are limited to take-out only but from May 1 they will be allowed to let customers eat in outdoor areas as long as there’s no table service.

Malls can also start operating curbside retail from May 1. 

Stay-at-home order has been extended until May 15. 

There’s a 10 person limit on gatherings. 

Maine 

Cases: 1,226 – Deaths: 61 

Businesses including drive-in theaters, barber shops and hair salons, dog groomers and car dealerships can reopen from May 1. 

Some outdoor recreation like golf courses, marinas and state-owned public land trails will also be allowed to reopen. 

Current restrictions, including no gatherings of more than 10 people and 14 day quarantine for out of state visitors, still apply. 

If employees are able to work from home, they should continue to do so.  

Restaurants and bars are still limited to take-out only. 

Michigan 

Cases: 43,990 – Deaths: 4,139 

Stay-at-home order extended until May 15. Public gatherings prohibited – with religious exemptions.

Garden stores, nurseries, lawn-care, pest-control and landscaping operations were allowed to resume business from April 24. 

The construction industry can return to work on May 7. 

Nonessential businesses are still limited to minimum operations or remote work. Retailers that do not sell necessary supplies can reopen for curbside pickup and delivery. 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only. 

Minnesota  

Cases: 7,851 – Deaths: 455 

In Minnesota, only businesses that don’t interact with the public can reopen from April 27. 

It includes those in industrial, manufacturing and office settings. Retail stores must remain closed. 

The state’s stay-at-home order still runs through to at least May 3.

Entertainment and performance venues remain closed and bars and restaurants are limited to take-out only. 

Mississippi 

Cases: 8,207 – Deaths: 342 

In Mississippi, retail stores, including those in strip malls and shopping centers, are now allowed to reopen on April 27 if they reduce their customer capacity by 50 percent at any given time.

Businesses that can’t avoid person-to-person contact, including gyms, cinemas and salons, are to remain closed. 

Elective medical and dental procedures are now allowed.  

The state’s stay at home order has been extended until at least May 11. 

Missouri  

Cases: 9,006 – Deaths: 387 

From May 4, all businesses will be allowed to reopen and social events can resume as long as residents and business owners continue social distancing and limit capacity.

Local governments can impose stricter limitations if their officials believe it is necessary.

Kansas City’s stay-at-home order is scheduled to continue through May 15. 

Montana 

Cases: 456 – Deaths: 16 

Churches resumed services on April 27. 

Starting May 4, restaurants and bars can start providing some dine-in services. 

Schools have the option to return to in-classroom instruction May 7.   

Visitors from out of state still must self-quarantine for 14 day. 

Nebraska  

Cases: 6,037 – Deaths: 78 

No stay-at-home order. 

From May 4, people can dine-in at restaurants but they must remain six feet apart and everyone must wear masks. 

Bars are still limited to take-out only.  

Hair salons, tattoo parlors and strip clubs closed through May 31.

There’s a 10 person limit on gatherings. 

New Hampshire  

Cases: 2,588 – Deaths: 86 

Stay-at-home order extended until May 31. 

Drive-in theaters, golf courses and hair salons will be allowed to start up again from May 11 with strict social distancing.

Restaurants that have outdoor seating can reopen from May 18 if tables can be spaced six feet apart. 

Campgrounds, manufacturing services and state parks can open immediately if they follow the guidelines.  

North Dakota 

Cases: 1,266 – Deaths: 25 

No stay-at-home order.

Bars and restaurants, recreational facilities, health clubs and athletic facilities, salons, and tattoo studios can reopen from May 1 with social distancing measures. 

Movie theaters must limit admittance to 20% capacity. 

Ohio  

Cases: 20,474 – Deaths: 1,057 

Non-essential surgeries that don’t require an overnight hospital stay will start May 1.

Manufacturing, distribution and construction sectors will reopen May 4, following by consumer retail and services on May 12.

Companies will need to require employees and customers to wear face masks and follow social distancing guidelines. 

Oklahoma 

Cases: 4,127 –  Deaths: 247

Some businesses that were closed in an effort to slow the spread of the coronavirus were allowed to reopen from April 24 and others can reopen within 10 days. 

Barbershops, hair and nail salons, pet groomers and spas were allowed to reopen from April 24. The move is contingent on businesses practicing social distancing, and employees and customers must wear masks if they are within six feet of each other. 

Restaurants, movie theaters, gyms and places of worship can reopen May 1. Nurseries tied to places of worship will remain closed. 

South Carolina  

Cases: 6,757 – Deaths: 283 

Department stores, sporting goods stores and flea markets are among the businesses allowed to reopen in parts of the state from April 20

Other stores selling furniture, books, music, flowers, clothing and accessories can also reopen. The businesses are allowed to open at 20 percent capacity, or five people per 1,000 square feet.  

Beaches are also allowed to reopen April 21.

South Dakota  

Cases: 2,668 – Deaths: 24 

No stay-at-home order

Unnecessary gatherings of 10 or more prohibited  

Tennessee

Cases: 13,571 – Deaths: 219 

Businesses in most counties can reopen as early as April 27. 

Retail stores, which can reopen from April 29, and restaurants will operate with a 50 percent customer capacity. Many of Tennessee’s 56 parks will open on Friday. 

Businesses can expect temperature checks, enforced mask wearing and social distancing.  

Large cities including Nashville, Memphis and Knoxville can decide on their own when to reopen.

Texas 

Cases 33,410 – Deaths 911 

Retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls can reopen at a 25 percent reduced capacity from May 1. 

State parks reopened on April 20 but people must wear face coverings and masks and adhere to social distancing. People also cannot visit in groups of five or more.

Hospitals could resumed surgeries on April 22 that had been postponed by coronavirus.  

Schools and universities will remain closed for the rest of the year.  

Utah 

Cases: 5,317 – Deaths: 50 

No stay-at-home order. 

Restaurants can allow customers dine in again with precautions from May 1.

Gyms and personal services including hair salons can reopen May 1. 

Vermont 

Cases: 907 – Deaths: 53 

Stay-at-home order through May 15.

Construction, home appraisers, property management and municipal clerks can reopen from April 27 with a maximum of five workers.

Farmers markets can operate from May 1. 

Outdoor retail space can allow in-person shopping with a max of 10 people. 

West Virginia 

Cases: 1,224 – Deaths: 48

Elective surgeries can resume from April 30.

Small businesses with less than 10 employees can reopen next week, including hair and nail slaons, barber shops and pet grooming. 

There is an indefinite stay-at-home order. 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only. 

Wisconsin

Cases: 8,236 – Deaths: 340 

The stay-at-home order has been extended to May 26. 

Nonessential businesses and public libraries can have curbside pickup and delivery.

Groomers, engine repair shops are allowed to do curbside drops offs.

Golf courses are open.

Some state parks will reopen from May 1.

Not reopening

Connecticut  

Cases: 29,973 – Deaths: 2,556 

Stay-at-home order through May 20. 

Five person limit on social gatherings, 50-person limit for religious services. 

Non-essential businesses must suspend all in-person operations and bars and restaurants are limited to take-out only.

Out-of-state visitors strongly urged to self-quarantine. 

If the state meets certain criteria by May 20, including 14 days of downward infections, increased testing availability and sufficient contact tracing methods, it will forge ahead with partial reopening.  

If that criteria is met, restaurants with outdoor seating, offices, hair and nail salons and outdoor museums and zoos will be allowed to reopen.  

Delaware 

Cases: 5,371 – Deaths: 187 

Stay-at-home order through May 15. 

10 person limit on gatherings.

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work.

Visitors from out of state who aren’t just passing through must self-quarantine for 14 days. 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only.

Hawaii 

Cases: 621 – Deaths: 17

Stay-at-home order has been extended until May 31. 

10 person limit on gatherings

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work

Visitors from out of state must self-quarantine for 14 days 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only

Kansas 

Cases: 5,537 – Deaths: 156 

Stay-at-home order until May 3 

10 person limit on gatherings – exempting funerals and religious services with social distancing

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work

Residents who traveled to California, Florida, New York or Washington state after March 14, or visited Illinois or New Jersey after March 22, must self-quarantine for 14 days 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only. 

Maryland  

Cases: 27,117 – Deaths: 1,390 

Indefinite stay-at-home order 

10 person limit on gatherings

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work

Visitors from out of state must self-quarantine for 14 days 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only 

Massachusetts 

Cases: 69,087 – Deaths: 4,090 

Non-essential businesses closed through May 4 

10 person limit on gatherings 

Visitors from out of state advised to self-quarantine for 14 days 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only 

New Jersey   

Cases: 130,595 – Deaths: 8,244

Indefinite stay-at-home order

10 person limit on gatherings

Nonessential retail businesses must close bricks-and-mortar premises. Recreational and entertainment businesses also closed  

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only 

New Mexico   

Cases: 4,031 – Deaths: 156 

Stay-at-home order through April 30 

Five person limit on gatherings in a single room

Nonessential businesses must suspend all in-person operations 

Arriving air travelers must self-quarantine for 14 days 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only 

New York

Cases: 321,192 – Deaths: 19,645

Stay-at-home order through May 15.

Nonessential gatherings are prohibited.   

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work. 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only.

Masks must be worn in situations where social distancing is not possible.

Elective surgeries can begin in parts of the state.  

North Carolina  

Cases 12,440 – Deaths 462 

Stay-at-home order through May 8

10 person limit on gatherings

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work 

 Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only 

Oregon  

Cases: 2,759 – Deaths: 109 

Indefinite stay-at-home order

25 person limit on gatherings

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only  

Pennsylvania  

Cases: 53,434 – Deaths: 3,165

Stay-at-home order through April 30

Gatherings prohibited 

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only 

Rhode Island   

Cases: 9,933 – Deaths: 355 

Stay-at-home order through May 8 

Five person limit on gatherings

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work

Visitors from out of state must self-quarantine for 14 days 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only 

Virginia   

Cases 20,257 – Deaths 713 

Stay-at-home order through June 10

Recreation and entertainment businesses closed through May 8 

10 person limit on gatherings 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only 

Washington  

Cases 16,101 – Deaths 841 

Stay-at-home order through May 4

All gatherings for social, spiritual and recreational purposes are prohibited 

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work 

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only

Not yet determined 

Arizona  

Cases 9,305 – Deaths 362 

Hospitals that have sufficient PPE, capacity and ability to test healthcare workers can open for elective surgeries on May 1. 

State’s stay-at-home order currently runs until April 30. 

10 person limit on gatherings

Nonessential businesses are limited to minimum operations or remote work

Restaurants and bars limited to take-out only  

Indiana   

Cases: 21,033 – Deaths: 1,211

Stay-at-home order runs through May 1. 

There’s a 10 person limit on gatherings.

Nonessential businesses limited to minimum operations or remote work and bars and restaurants limited to take-out only.

Hospitals, veterinarians, dentists and other health care providers were allowed to resume operations from April 27 if they had the appropriate PPE.  

Nevada  

Cases: 5,630 – Deaths: 265 

Stay-at-home order through April 30.

10 person limit on gatherings

Recreational, entertainment and personal-care businesses closed, including casinos  

Bars and restaurants limited to take-out only.

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