One of the three Indian coronavirus variants is likely to be upgraded to become ‘of concern’ after clusters were found in several areas of England, it was claimed today.
Cases of the mutant coronavirus have been found in schools, care homes and places of worship in the North West, London and the East Midlands. Up to one in ten cases in the capital are the variant, data suggests.
It is ‘highly likely’ it will be declared a ‘variant of concern’ on Friday, though cases remain relatively low, Channel 4 News reported.
Such a change can mean an escalation in response from Public Health England (PHE), including ordering surge testing.
The strain, scientifically called B1617.2, is one of three related variants first seen in India which have been detected in the UK and designated ‘under investigation’ by PHE. The other two, which are genetically similar, are B1617.1 and B1617.3.
Early research suggests both the AstraZeneca vaccine, known as Covishield in India, and the Pfizer jab, still work against the variant. A paper published by SAGE last week suggested two doses of the Pfizer vaccine is good enough to protect against all known variants.
Public Health England says there is ‘no evidence that the variant causes more severe disease or renders the vaccines currently deployed any less effective’.
Public Health England has divided the Indian variant in three sub-types because they aren’t identical. Type 1 and Type 3 both have a mutation called E484Q but Type 2 is missing this, despite still clearly being a descendant of the original Indian strain. It is not yet clear what separates Type 1 and 3
Data modelled by Professor Christina Pagel suggested the variants now account for 10 per cent of Covid cases in London, and between 5 and 7 per cent of cases in the South East and East Midlands
APRIL 17: In the most recent data, the variant – now split into three recognisable strains – has been found in dozens of areas and accounted for 2.4 per cent of all positive tests sampled
APRIL 3: Only a handful of places had the Indian variant present in swab samples at the start of April, when most were in Aylesbury Vale, Buckinghamshire
APRIL 10: By a week later the variant had spread to more areas and started to take off in London
Cases of the variant have been found in schools, care homes and places of worship in the North West, London and the East Midlands, largely linked to travel (file image, antibody testing in Birmingham)
According to Channel 4 News, there have been at least 48 clusters of B1617.2, although overall numbers remain small.
PHE said updates on the number of cases due to be released on Thursday have been delayed due to ‘processing issues’.
According to the most recent data by PHE, there have been 193 confirmed cases of the B1617.1 variant, up by 61 since the last update on April 21.
The first report on the B1617.2 variant shows 202 cases. But the BBC claims the total number of cases will top 500 when the figures get updated later today.
Only five cases of the B1617.3 variant have been detected so far.
According to internal documents from PHE, dated to May 5 and seen by The Guardian, the ongoing risk to public health from the variant subtype B1617.2 is ‘high’.
Nepal is now reporting 230 Covid cases per million, only narrowly behind India’s 280 per million, though its healthcare system is even less able to handle the surge
Nepal army personnel wearing PPE load the body of a Covid victim into the back of an ambulance so they can be taken for cremation
Dr Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer at Queen Mary University of London, told The Guardian that ‘at the current doubling rate (B1617.2) could easily become dominant in London by the end of May or early June’.
It comes as seven confirmed cases of the B1617.2 variant were detected in Northern Ireland – the first discovered in the region.
Chief medical officer Dr Michael McBride said the news was ‘not entirely unexpected’ and that plans were in place ‘for such an eventuality’.
Health experts have said they ‘haven’t seen any hint’ of a current Covid variant that can fully evade the effectiveness of vaccines.
The Department of Health and Social Care and PHE have been contacted for comment.
It comes after MailOnline revealed this week that the Indian Covid variants now make up one in 10 cases in London.
Data from the Sanger Institute, which analyses positive swabs for different variants, suggest the mutant strains spread widely during April.
Nationally the three different variants account for 2.4 per cent of all infections in the most recent week, ending April 17, up 12-fold from just 0.2 per cent at the end of March.
But the same figures suggest one in 10 cases in London were caused by the B.1.617 variants.
Data also showed the proportion ranged as high as 46 per cent in Lambeth and 36 per cent in Harrow – but the figures are based on tiny numbers of cases so clusters or super-spreading events have an amplified effect that may fade quickly.
Not much is known about the Indian variants, linked to an explosion of cases in India that has seen dead bodies spill out onto the street and mass cremations taking place in public car parks because hospitals have ran out of oxygen.
But one expert said the data – which doesn’t include travellers’ tests and is intended to be a snapshot of community infection rates – suggests it could be ‘outcompeting’ the Kent variant, which is dominant in the UK.
The proportion of cases being caused by the variants is rising whereas it would be expected to fall alongside the Kent variant if they were equally as fast-spreading.
But it could also just be a coincidence that outbreaks were happening where the variants were present, said Professor Christina Pagel, a mathematician at University College London and member of the Independent SAGE panel of experts.
There are too few cases in the UK to actually be able to tell anything about how the variants behave, Professor Pagel added, and not enough genetic testing in India.