Australia is expected to slash Covid restrictions to the bare minimum this year and embrace a new strategy similar to how it handles the flu.
Doherty Institute director Sharon Lewin predicted the focus would shift away from trying to control the virus to instead just reducing the risk for vulnerable people.
NSW is expected to pare back mask rules and working from home advice from March 1, and some other states may scrap QR code check-ins within weeks.
The international border will also finally open to vaccinated tourists on February 21 after 23 months of being completely shut to outsiders.
But experts still worry about a virus resurgence in winter and warned Covid-19 isn’t going anywhere, given the remnants of the Spanish Flu were still circulating 50 years after the 1918 outbreak.
Australia is set for a major shift in its approach in how to handle the virus, the boss of the Doherty Institute has predicted
‘Blunt’ Covid restrictions on the entire population may be a thing of the past
The proposed new public health direction Professor Lewin outlined would shift to reducing disease, deaths, and hospitalisation for at-risk people and a reversal of ‘blunt’ Covid rules, the Australian Financial Review reported.
Such an approach would make testing and reporting of cases only necessary for people going into hospitals, as happens with influenza.
‘That would mean a much simpler messaging to the public to stay at home if sick,’ Professor Lewin said.
‘I’m not saying that that’s going to come in now, but that could be a future scenario if you are not worried about disease [severity].’
However, Professor Lewin warned Australia needed a ‘scenario plan’ in case a virulent new variant emerges.
The new strategy could also see a major rethink on boosters, away from the need to dose the whole population with a vaccine every six months, which she said was ‘not a viable strategy’.
Instead, Australia needed new broad-based ‘pan-sarbecoviruses’ vaccine – a shot that is effective for a wide range of coronavirus variants.
But hopes of a country totally free from Covid rules in the next few months be premature amid fears over what the virus could do in winter.
Professor Sharon Lewin, the director of the Doherty Institute, is one of the country’s most esteemed virus experts
‘Pandemic’ here to stay
Professors Catherine Bennett and Peter Collignon both told Daily Mail Australia it could be months before the word ‘pandemic’ begins to disappear, even though confidence is growing Australia has a handle on the virus.
Australia’s Omicron peak was on January 12 with 175,271 – a number that has been falling ever since. There are also hopes the number of deaths may have peaked too.
Prof Collignon said the virus would stick around long term, but its impact would continue to wane.
‘The Spanish Flu was really bad for two three years, but it hung around 50 years,’ Professor Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and microbiologist at Canberra Hospital and the Australian National University, said.
‘Yes it continued to cause problems but nowhere the level of first few years.’
NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet said there would be an announcement soon on whether the state would lift restrictions after February 27, including mask-wearing indoors and compulsory QR code check-ins.
‘We rolled those restrictions over from January 27 to February 27. We did so to take a precautionary approach as we were moving through the Omicron wave,’ he said.
‘The government hasn’t met to make its decision in relation to that but if I look across the state right now, we’re in a very strong position.’
Mr Perrottet predicted it would be ‘boom-time back in Sydney’ once restrictions were lifted.
Experts agree that Australia will see only a gradual easing of current Covid restrictions until late 2022 – because of fears over what the virus could do in winter
Experts told Daily Mail Australia that it could be months before the word ‘pandemic’ begins to disappear, even though confidence is growing Australia has a handle on Covid-19
In Australia’s next two most populous states, Victoria and Queensland, mask-wearing looks to remain in place for the foreseeable future.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews indicated wearing masks indoors would not end ‘any time soon’ and Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said there were ‘no plans’ to end the mask mandate for now.
However, as it is only February, Professor Lewin’s prediction could still come true but just take months longer than in NSW.
On Monday, however, both Queensland and the ACT announced they would ditch QR code check-ins for most venues.
Taxis, rideshare, retail stores, supermarkets, hairdressers, beauty salons, gyms, real estate agencies, indoor sports centres and government buildings are among the services that will no longer require patrons to check-in in Queensland.
Mandatory check in will still be required for venues that require a person to be vaccinated to enter, including pubs, clubs, bars, restaurants, cafes and live music venues.
In the ACT, check-ins will be ditched except for bars, pubs, clubs, nightclubs, strip clubs and brothels, organised events that aren’t ticketed as well as schools.
Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan told residents in January that they could expect to wear masks until the end of winter this year.
‘We can’t be definitive but what we have seen over east is when they abandon masks, case numbers go up significantly,’ he said.
Mr Collignon says the virus will stay with us – but it’s impact should continue to wane
Winter worries
Despite his optimism on reduced restricitons, Professor Collignon warned it was far too early to say the pandemic was soon to be over.
One major reason is that the virus tended to spread more in winter, so Australia would need to get through one more to see where it was really at.
‘I worry about winter these viruses spread more readily,’ Professor Collingnon said.
‘Most transmission occurs in winter so we have to make sure people are adequately protected before then. That means getting a third dose for all adults.’
However, that didn’t automatically mean a fourth dose for winter.
Three doses of any vaccine provide about 95 per cent protection against hospitalisation, but a fourth dose increased that protection by only about one per cent.
Queensland chief health officer John Gerrard said his state’s health authorities were planning for a new wave of Covid in southeast Queensland in the colder months.
‘We’re heading into winter and the general feeling is there’s a significant chance that we will encounter some sort of second wave when we head into the winter,’ he said.
His equivalent in NSW, Kerry Chant, similarly warned about a new surge in cases as winter approached.
‘The future is difficult to predict, but I think those scenarios of an upswing in cases prior to winter is something we have to plan for and talk to the community about,’ she said in January.
‘We are going to have to adjust our settings, adjust our behaviour.’
But she said more vaccines and the likelihood most people had received a booster jab by winter would help moderate the number of new cases.
‘2022 is going to be a time where we’re going to have those fantastic tools of additional vaccines,’ she said.
The fear remains that by removing all Covid rules to revive a sluggish economy and encourage risk-averse consumers, a winter wave of the virus means restrictions such as mask wearing could return.
But this fear may be unfounded as even with a rise in cases, Australian health authorities are becoming more confident at dealing with whatever Covid throws at them.
‘As a country we are getting to a point where there are fewer surprises in this virus,’ Deakin University epidemiology chair Professor Bennett said.
‘There’s a lower range of mutations, and now we know what it is to experience high infection rates, we can deal with it.’
The key to beating Covid as a nation is immunity, Professor Peter Collignon says. That immunity will come from two means: boosters and people catching Covid
Professor Catherine Bennett says Australia is well positioned to deal with ‘Son of Omicron’ because of our vaccination take-up. Vaccines been successful in reducing severe illness in all strains seen to date
The key to beating Covid-19: Immunity
Mr Collignon said the key to the pandemic heading in the right direction is one word: immunity.
‘More immunity equals less disruption, but not no disruption at all, not yet,’ he said.
That immunity will come from two means: boosters and people catching Covid.
But the good news is that the positive direction of the pandemic should continue towards fewer disruptions and restrictions.
In general life will look more and more like pre-pandemic times – and feel less like the the lockdown blues Melbourne and Sydney endured for most of 2021.
‘There is a good chance we won’t see any new variant in its raw form because of our levels of immunity from infection and vaccination. Those take the edge off the severe illness.
‘We still have to manage this virus with measures like social distancing and masks indoors, but our immunity improving and our treatment gives us a better starting point.’
But even with a rise in cases, Australian health authorities are becoming more confident at dealing with whatever Covid throws at them
‘In order for us to go from the pandemic phase to an endemic phase, the virus has to be widespread,’ Dr Gerrard said in December.
‘We all have to have immunity [and] there’s two ways you can do that – by being vaccinated or getting infected.
‘Once we’ve done that, once the virus is spreading, once we all have some degree of immunity, the virus becomes endemic and that is what is going to happen.’
Lockdowns don’t work with Omicron
Anyone still scarred by lockdown experiences can probably start to relax, both Prof. Collignon and Prof. Bennett agree.
She says while the public will to end lockdowns was a factor that is not why they ended.
They don’t work with Omicron – including ‘Son of Omicron’ variant, which is actually more of a sibling because it is now thought to have developed at the same time as BA.1.
‘There was no point in reinstating lockdowns with Omicron, it wasn’t going to work in the same way, the example of the Netherlands showed that,’ Catherine Bennett said.
Mr Collignon says countries and states still trying to keep Omicron out are ‘fantasyland’ because they are operating under the belief they can prevent the virus becoming endemic.
‘I still hear people saying ‘if we had more restrictions we could stamp it out’. That’s fantasyland.’
Australia’s successful vaccination program has been a major reason the nation is becoming confident about its ability to deal with Covid in 2022
Mr Collignon says the virus will stay with us – but it’s impact should continue to wane
‘Son of Omicron’ variant
Neither Professor Bennett nor Professor Collignon believes the so-called ‘Son of Omicron’ BA.2 strain is a scary prospect – even though studies from Denmark say it appears to be more contagious.
A big reason, Ms Bennett, says is because vaccinations have been successful in reducing severe illness in all strains seen to date.
Early evidence is also arriving that the same boosters that stopped people infected with Delta and Omicron from being hospitalised will work for BA.2.
‘Once you have booster you have this cross reactive immunity that protects you and in many cases reduces risk of symptomatic infection altogether,’ she said.
‘That makes us hopeful even if another variant comes along that we’ll be ok,’ she says.
‘There could be more virulent variants to come, we can’t rule it out, but it is our immunity that brings the virulence down.’
Mr Collignon and Ms Bennett believe confidence in Australia’s current approaches – and the nature of more transmissible strains like Omicron – mean its unlikely we’ll see state governments returning to lockdowns.
‘Holdout’ countries and the myth of zero-Covid
‘The hold-out countries are China, Taiwan, New Zealand and maybe Western Australia,’ says Professor Collignon.
‘They are still trying to eliminate Covid and this is now an impossibility.’
‘You could argue it’s worthwhile while you get your vaccination rates up, but to say Covid won’t become endemic is unrealistic.’
What has worked are vaccination and public health measures that reward people for getting vaccinated.
What has worked are vaccination and public health measures that reward people for getting vaccinated.
What has worked are vaccination and public health measures that reward people for getting vaccinated
Both agree high levels of vaccination in the community are what has prevented the health system from being overrun as the new variant took hold.
Children receiving vaccines is vital to Australia coming out of the pandemic, he said.
Mr Collignon, 69, has even encouraged his own 15 grandchildren to get fully vaccinated.
‘I’m promoting vaccination of my family including my numerous grandchildren over the age of five,’ he said.
‘The available data should it decreases the risk of infection with minimal risk of major side effects.’
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