El Nino predicted for end of the year will be devastating for farmers struggling after drought

An El Niño event has been predicted for the end of the year, leaving farmers already struggling with a devastating five-year drought facing disaster.

The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal.

El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires, lasting as long as two years.

If an El Niño does form in the latter half of 2018, it could prove catastrophic for parched Australian farmers who have been crippled by a years-long nationwide dry spell which some are describing as the worst drought in 100 years.

 

An El Niño event has been predicted for the end of the year, leaving farmers already struggling with a devastating five-year drought facing disaster (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

The Bureau of Meteorology announced the odds of an El Niño system forming this year are now twice as high as normal (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

Pictured is a sea surface temperature map showing the effects of an El Niño event in 1997

Pictured is a sea surface temperature map showing the effects of an El Niño event in 1997

Pictured is a sea surface temperature map showing the effects of an El Niña event in 1988

Pictured is a sea surface temperature map showing the effects of an El Niña event in 1988

BOM senior forecaster David Crock said on Wednesday there is typically about a 25 per cent chance of an El Niño pattern developing.

The likelihood of one forming is now at 50 per cent, approximately double the normal probability.

‘During El Niño, rainfall in eastern Australia is typically below average during winter–spring,’ the Bureau of Meteorology stated.

‘Daytime temperatures are also typically warmer than average for southern Australia. A neutral ENSO phase has little effect on Australian climate.

‘Most international climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific will continue to warm. 

‘Five of eight models indicate this warming will reach El Niño levels in the southern hemisphere spring, while a sixth model reaches El Niño levels in December.’

 The Bureau of Meteorology has warned the chances of an El Niño event are twice as high as usual

 The Bureau of Meteorology has warned the chances of an El Niño event are twice as high as usual

El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

El Niño events often result in severe droughts, bringing higher temperatures, lower than average rainfall and increased risk of bushfires (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

El Niño events can last as long as two years, and are caused by a warming of the ocean surface or above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

Of Australia’s ten driest years on record, seven occurred during El Niño years, and 18 of the 27 events since 1900 have triggered droughts.

The period from April to June this year has been the fourth-driest since comparable records commenced in 1900, the Bureau of Meteorology said.

Almost 60 per cent of Queensland is stricken by drought, while in New South Wales less than one per cent of the state is unaffected.   

WHAT IS EL NIÑO?

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases (respectively) of a recurring climate phenomenon across the tropical Pacific – the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ‘ENSO’ for short.

The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, winds and precipitation.

These changes disrupt air movement and affect global climate.

ENSO has three phases:

El Niño: A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall becomes reduced while rainfall increases over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator, instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction from west to east.

La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to increase while rainfall decreases over the central tropical Pacific Ocean. The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger.

Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average.

Source: Climate.gov

According to the Queensland government, 23 councils and four part council areas are drought-declared, along with 73 individually droughted properties in other areas

According to the Queensland government, 23 councils and four part council areas are drought-declared, along with 73 individually droughted properties in other areas

Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are present in southeastern South Australia and western to Northern Country Victoria, and in parts of Gippsland, Victoria

Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are present in southeastern South Australia and western to Northern Country Victoria, and in parts of Gippsland, Victoria

New South Wales government figures show 48 per cent of the state is drought affected, 36.5 per cent is experiencing drought (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

New South Wales government figures show 48 per cent of the state is drought affected, 36.5 per cent is experiencing drought (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

According to the Queensland government, 23 councils and four part council areas are drought-declared, along with 73 individually droughted properties in other areas.

New South Wales government figures show 48 per cent of the state is drought affected, 36.5 per cent is experiencing drought.

An additional 15.3 per cent is suffering from intense drought, with only 0.2 per cent given a non-drought status.

The Kimberley and the southwestern quarter of Western Australia, most of the Northern Territory, and large parts of South Australia, New South Wales, and Queensland all saw below-average rainfall in June.

Of Australia's ten driest years on record, seven occurred during El Niño years, and 18 of the 27 events since 1900 have triggered droughts (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

Of Australia’s ten driest years on record, seven occurred during El Niño years, and 18 of the 27 events since 1900 have triggered droughts (pictured is a drought-affected property in NSW)

Serious to severe rainfall deficiencies are present in southeastern South Australia and western to Northern Country Victoria, and in parts of Gippsland, Victoria.

Similar deficiencies have been seen in the Central Highlands and Coalfields District in Queensland, and in Western Australia’s South Coastal District.

El Niño threatens to hit while drought-stricken farmers are forced to shoot livestock they are unable to feed.

Les Jones, a sheep farmer in Goolhi, New South Wales’ drought declared north-east, said ten sheep were dying of starvation daily, leaving mass shooting the only option.

Gold Logie winner Grant Denyer has labelled the situation as critical, sharing photos of extremely dry conditions on his 27-acre farm near Bathurst.

The period between April and June has been the fourth-driest since comparable records commenced in 1900, the Bureau of Meteorology said (pictured are emus which succumbed to the drought)

The period between April and June has been the fourth-driest since comparable records commenced in 1900, the Bureau of Meteorology said (pictured are emus which succumbed to the drought)



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