Boris Johnson is set to face the first big political test of his leadership against Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party days after taking over as prime minister in a tense by-election.
Assuming he wins the Tory leadership campaign the runaway favourite will lead the party into a crunch vote in Wales after expenses cheat Chris Davies was booted from the Commons by a recall petition.
The by-election is likely in the last week of July – days after the new PM is unveiled – in Brecon and Radnorshire, which in a mirror image of the nation as a whole voted 52% to 48% to leave in the 2016 Brexit referendum.
Nigel Farage’s Party confirmed today that it would stand against the Conservatives, with chairman Richard Tice saying: ‘The sheer scale of the vote to force a recall and a by-election shows how strongly the level of dissatisfaction with politics in the country is rising up the agenda.
‘The Brexit Party will be contesting the forthcoming by election. It is clear that people of this county want to change politics for good.’
Mr Davies, 51, became the second MP to lose a recall petition following the by-election in Peterborough earlier this month in which the Tories limped home in fourth place.
Labour just held off the Brexit Party to retain the Cambridgeshire seat previously held by disgraced Fiona Onasanya.
But Mr Davies had an 8,000 majority in Brecon, while Peterborough was a Tory/Labour marginal, and any defeat or narrow win in the south east Wales seat would be greeted with panic in Tory HQ.
Any swing to the Brexit Party could either win it the seat or split the Brexiteer vote and hand the area to the Remainer Lib Dems – who held it for almost 20 years until 2015.
Mr Davies was convicted for faking expenses claims after he admitted to submitting two false expenses invoices for landscape photographs to decorate his new office in 2015
Mr Davies, pictured leaving court in May, was fined £1,500, ordered to pay £2,500 towards legal costs and told to carry out 50 hours of community service
Some 10,005 people, some 19 per cent of the 56,032 electorate, voted to trigger the by-election, Powys County Council revealed today.
Mr Davies has been MP for Brecon and Radnorshire since the 2015 general election, where he beat incumbent Liberal Democrat Roger Williams with the constituency’s largest majority since 1983.
The Conservative MP was convicted for faking expenses claims after he admitted to submitting two false expenses invoices for landscape photographs to decorate his new office in 2015.
He was fined £1,500, ordered to pay £2,500 towards legal costs and told to carry out 50 hours of community service.
The recall petition opened on May 9 and Mr Davies’ constituents had six weeks to sign it .
Ten per cent or more of constituents – around 5,600 people – had to sign it to force him out of his seat and force a by-election, in which he will be allowed to stand for re-election.
The Conservatives have yet to confirm whether he will be chosen as the Tory candidate.
A swing of 9.8 per cent would be needed by the Lib Dem candidate Jane Dodds to win the seat which saw a majority of 8,038 for Mr Davies in 2017.
If the Tories were to lose the by-election the Government’s working majority in the House of Commons would be reduced to three.
Boris Johnson, pictured leaving his home this morning, is expected to be named Tory leader and prime minister days before the by-election
Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party says it will contest the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election having come a close second in Peterborough two weeks ago in a vote called after Fiona Onasanya (right) was booted out of Parliament
Onasanya was thrown out of the Labour Party immediately after her conviction, but sat as an independent until the petition result, and did not stand in the by-election.
She became the first MP to be unseated from the Commons in a recall petition in May after she was jailed for perverting the course of justice ater lying to police to avoid a speeding charge.
Mr Davies, in contrast, has retained the Tory whip.
Recall petitions are launched when MPs receive a custodial sentence, including suspended sentences, are barred from the Commons for 10 sitting days or are convicted of providing false information about their expenses.
The verification of the petition and count took place at 10am today at County Hall in Llandrindod Wells, Powys.
The Petition Officer notified House of Commons Speaker John Bercow of the outcome before the result was made public.
Ms Dodds said: ‘Now we have a golden opportunity to do things differently. The clear choice in this by-election is between the Conservatives, whose chaos and infighting is letting our communities down, and a better future for our area with the Welsh Lib Dems.’
Ian Lavery the Labour Party chairman, added: ‘It is clear the Conservative Party is in crisis and unfit to govern.
‘After a decade of austerity under the Tories, propped up by the Lib Dems, we don’t just need a by election in Brecon and Radnorshire, we need a General Election and a Labour government.’