More than 2.5 million patients across England could see their GP surgeries close in the next five years, experts have calculated.
Health leaders say thousands of doctors are on the brink of leaving the profession and taking an early retirement will have a ‘catastrophic’ effect.
Appointment waiting times would get even longer, workloads would grow and more people could end up queueing at A&E for minor illnesses, they warn.
Three quarters of GPs are close to retirement and the same proportion of practices rely on doctors aged 55 or older – the age they can claim their pensions.
The Royal College of General Practitioners fears 762 practices across the UK will disappear by 2023 because they are relying on older GPs.
Campaigners have warned the potential closures would be ‘dangerous’ for patients and they have called for ‘drastic action’ to buck the trend and encourage new GPs to join the profession.
Figures from the Royal College of General Practitioners have revealed 762 GP practices across the UK are at risk of closing in the next five years because there aren’t enough new doctors being recruited
Some 458,000 patients in England lost their GP surgery last year, a figure which has risen from just 38,000 in 2013.
The RCGP, a union that represents GPs, wants £2.5 billion of extra investment in local surgeries to try and combat the crisis.
The situation is worst in Southend, Essex, where 13 of the area’s 35 GP practices are at risk of closing, potentially affecting nearly 39,000 patients.
A third of surgeries in the London borough of Havering could shut down, and more than 85,000 patients could lose their GP in Sandwell and West Birmingham.
Only around a quarter of areas of England have no practices at risk of closure, according to estimates by the RCGP.
A practice is classed at risk if three quarters of GPs are aged 55 or older.
The RCGP used data from all practices available and then used the average figures to estimate the risk for those where no data exists.
‘GPs will always work their hardest to try to keep practices open,’ said Professor Helen Stokes-Lampard, chair of the college.
‘But the harsh reality is that fantastic, caring GPs are burning out, working in conditions that are unsafe for their own health and that of their patients.
‘Workload in general practice is escalating yet our workforce is actually decreasing.
‘As a result, many GPs are bringing forward their retirement plans because the pressures they are working under are untenable.
‘If these GPs do leave, and these practices do close, it will have a catastrophic impact on our profession and the patient care we are able to provide.’
Rural areas such as Cornwall, Norfolk, Hampshire, Sussex, West Lincolnshire and North Yorkshire appear to have a smaller percentage of GP surgeries at risk.
Meanwhile, urban and more populated areas such as London, Kent, and the West Midlands have more cause for concern.
England has 625 practices at risk, with 71 in Scotland, 37 in Wales and 29 in Northern Ireland, the RCGPs said.
Rachel Power, chief executive of the Patients Association, told The Times: ‘This is a desperate situation with potentially serious consequences for patients.
‘It will leave people waiting months and push more towards A&E.
‘This is dangerous not only for the many patients who want to see their family doctor, but also for the wellbeing of GPs and practice teams.
‘The new funding must be used to turn things around.’
| NHS area | Proportion of practices at risk | Total practices in the area | Practices at risk | Patients of at-risk practices | Proportion of patients who could lose their GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHS Southend CCG | 37% | 35 | 13 | 38,989 | 21% |
| NHS Havering CCG | 33% | 39 | 13 | 49,761 | 20% |
| NHS Medway CCG | 31% | 45 | 14 | 52,330 | 19% |
| NHS West Lancashire CCG | 28% | 18 | 5 | 18,325 | 16% |
| NHS North East Lincolnshire CCG | 26% | 27 | 7 | 21,260 | 13% |
| NHS Castle Point and Rochford CCG | 25% | 24 | 6 | 34,446 | 21% |
| NHS Sandwell and West Birmingham CCG | 24% | 86 | 21 | 85,105 | 16% |
| NHS Chorley and South Ribble CCG | 23% | 30 | 7 | 15,054 | 9% |
| NHS Barnet CCG | 22% | 55 | 12 | 39,013 | 10% |
| NHS Barking and Dagenham CCG | 21% | 33 | 7 | 31,558 | 16% |
| NHS Wigan Borough CCG | 21% | 57 | 12 | 43,640 | 15% |
| NHS Corby CCG | 20% | 5 | 1 | 1,901 | 2% |
| NHS Newham CCG | 19% | 54 | 10 | 38,886 | 10% |
| NHS Southwark CCG | 19% | 31 | 6 | 27,816 | 13% |
| NHS Thurrock CCG | 19% | 27 | 5 | 17,206 | 10% |
| NHS Ealing CCG | 18% | 71 | 13 | 46,909 | 12% |
| NHS East Lancashire CCG | 18% | 49 | 9 | 29,216 | 9% |
| NHS Greater Preston CCG | 18% | 28 | 5 | 11,199 | 5% |
| NHS Swale CCG | 18% | 17 | 3 | 14,243 | 13% |
| NHS Mid Essex CCG | 17% | 41 | 7 | 31,090 | 9% |
| NHS South Tyneside CCG | 17% | 24 | 4 | 8,348 | 5% |
| NHS Basildon and Brentwood CCG | 16% | 37 | 6 | 30,862 | 12% |
| NHS Walsall CCG | 16% | 56 | 9 | 24,361 | 9% |
| NHS Birmingham South and Central CCG | 15% | 54 | 8 | 31,480 | 11% |
| NHS Luton CCG | 15% | 27 | 4 | 15,888 | 7% |
| NHS Stoke on Trent CCG | 15% | 47 | 7 | 37,760 | 13% |
| NHS Waltham Forest CCG | 15% | 39 | 6 | 24,288 | 9% |
| NHS Warwickshire North CCG | 15% | 26 | 4 | 12,102 | 7% |
| NHS Wokingham CCG | 15% | 13 | 2 | 10,042 | 6% |
| NHS Ashford CCG | 14% | 14 | 2 | 6,689 | 5% |
| NHS Bedfordshire CCG | 14% | 50 | 7 | 32,065 | 7% |
| NHS Cannock Chase CCG | 14% | 21 | 3 | 9,916 | 8% |
| NHS Greenwich CCG | 14% | 35 | 5 | 19,241 | 7% |
| NHS Hammersmith and Fulham CCG | 14% | 29 | 4 | 14,494 | 7% |
| NHS Haringey CCG | 14% | 35 | 5 | 21,233 | 7% |
| NHS Hull CCG | 14% | 43 | 6 | 17,408 | 7% |
| NHS Leeds West CCG | 14% | 37 | 5 | 30,329 | 8% |
| NHS Lincolnshire East CCG | 14% | 29 | 4 | 24,026 | 10% |
| NHS Redbridge CCG | 14% | 44 | 6 | 27,698 | 9% |
| NHS South Lincolnshire CCG | 14% | 14 | 2 | 7,026 | 4% |
| NHS Barnsley CCG | 13% | 31 | 4 | 13,657 | 6% |
| NHS Bracknell and Ascot CCG | 13% | 15 | 2 | 9,315 | 7% |
| NHS Brent CCG | 13% | 56 | 7 | 38,817 | 11% |
| NHS Dartford, Gravesham and Swanley CCG | 13% | 32 | 4 | 19,975 | 7% |
| NHS Doncaster CCG | 13% | 40 | 5 | 27,558 | 9% |
| NHS Enfield CCG | 13% | 45 | 6 | 28,255 | 9% |
| NHS Fylde and Wyre CCG | 13% | 15 | 2 | 8,802 | 7% |
| NHS Harrow CCG | 13% | 30 | 4 | 18,119 | 8% |
| NHS Hartlepool and Stockton-on-Tees CCG | 13% | 32 | 4 | 15,438 | 5% |
| NHS Hastings and Rother CCG | 13% | 24 | 3 | 13,825 | 8% |
| NHS Mansfield and Ashfield CCG | 13% | 24 | 3 | 13,744 | 8% |
| NHS North East Essex CCG | 13% | 38 | 5 | 32,571 | 10% |
| NHS Nottingham City CCG | 13% | 48 | 6 | 30,293 | 9% |
| NHS Rotherham CCG | 13% | 31 | 4 | 28,676 | 11% |
| NHS Slough CCG | 13% | 15 | 2 | 11,018 | 7% |
| NHS West London CCG | 13% | 38 | 5 | 12,422 | 6% |
| NHS Bexley CCG | 12% | 26 | 3 | 15,978 | 7% |
| NHS Bury CCG | 12% | 26 | 3 | 12,278 | 7% |
| NHS Dudley CCG | 12% | 43 | 5 | 18,000 | 6% |
| NHS Hounslow CCG | 12% | 43 | 5 | 21,368 | 8% |
| NHS North West Surrey CCG | 12% | 41 | 5 | 18,072 | 5% |
| NHS Birmingham CrossCity CCG | 11% | 89 | 10 | 35,473 | 5% |
| NHS Blackburn with Darwen CCG | 11% | 27 | 3 | 10,642 | 6% |
| NHS Greater Huddersfield CCG | 11% | 38 | 4 | 9,468 | 4% |
| NHS Liverpool CCG | 11% | 87 | 10 | 29,899 | 6% |
| NHS North and West Reading CCG | 11% | 9 | 1 | 2,729 | 3% |
| NHS North Kirklees CCG | 11% | 28 | 3 | 16,408 | 9% |
| NHS South Kent Coast CCG | 11% | 28 | 3 | 15,214 | 8% |
| NHS Central London (Westminster) CCG | 10% | 30 | 3 | 6,986 | 3% |
| NHS City and Hackney CCG | 10% | 39 | 4 | 23,582 | 8% |
| NHS Coventry and Rugby CCG | 10% | 61 | 6 | 24,665 | 5% |
| NHS North Somerset CCG | 10% | 20 | 2 | 20,492 | 9% |
| NHS Tameside and Glossop CCG | 10% | 39 | 4 | 12,198 | 5% |
| NHS Trafford CCG | 10% | 30 | 3 | 13,641 | 6% |
| NHS West Kent CCG | 10% | 60 | 6 | 15,344 | 3% |
| NHS Wiltshire CCG | 10% | 50 | 5 | 21,756 | 5% |
| NHS East and North Hertfordshire CCG | 9% | 58 | 5 | 29,312 | 5% |
| NHS Kingston CCG | 9% | 22 | 2 | 10,198 | 5% |
| NHS Lambeth CCG | 9% | 44 | 4 | 12,181 | 3% |
| NHS Salford CCG | 9% | 43 | 4 | 9,059 | 3% |
| NHS Solihull CCG | 9% | 23 | 2 | 9,509 | 4% |
| NHS Somerset CCG | 9% | 65 | 6 | 23,451 | 4% |
| NHS St Helens CCG | 9% | 32 | 3 | 14,207 | 8% |
| NHS Sunderland CCG | 9% | 46 | 4 | 11,675 | 4% |
| NHS Bolton CCG | 8% | 48 | 4 | 13,840 | 5% |
| NHS Brighton and Hove CCG | 8% | 37 | 3 | 15,682 | 5% |
| NHS Leeds South and East CCG | 8% | 36 | 3 | 9,551 | 4% |
| NHS Milton Keynes CCG | 8% | 26 | 2 | 13,663 | 5% |
| NHS Newcastle Gateshead CCG | 8% | 64 | 5 | 26,290 | 5% |
| NHS North Cumbria CCG | 8% | 37 | 3 | 11,640 | 4% |
| NHS Nottingham West CCG | 8% | 12 | 1 | 5,102 | 5% |
| NHS South Gloucestershire CCG | 8% | 25 | 2 | 17,366 | 6% |
| NHS South Sefton CCG | 8% | 24 | 2 | 4,671 | 4% |
| NHS South Tees CCG | 8% | 40 | 3 | 14,901 | 5% |
| NHS Swindon CCG | 8% | 25 | 2 | 6,224 | 3% |
| NHS Vale of York CCG | 8% | 26 | 2 | 5,411 | 2% |
| NHS Vale Royal CCG | 8% | 12 | 1 | 7,626 | 7% |
| NHS Wandsworth CCG | 8% | 39 | 3 | 13,075 | 3% |
| Total | 8% | 6954 | 586 | 2,391,728 | 4% |
| NHS Bradford City CCG | 7% | 28 | 2 | 6,798 | 5% |
| NHS Halton CCG | 7% | 15 | 1 | 7,415 | 6% |
| NHS Hardwick CCG | 7% | 14 | 1 | 6,196 | 6% |
| NHS Hillingdon CCG | 7% | 44 | 3 | 13,532 | 5% |
| NHS Leicester City CCG | 7% | 56 | 4 | 20,032 | 5% |
| NHS North Durham CCG | 7% | 30 | 2 | 5,061 | 2% |
| NHS Richmond CCG | 7% | 27 | 2 | 4,573 | 2% |
| NHS Scarborough and Ryedale CCG | 7% | 15 | 1 | 4,091 | 3% |
| NHS South East Staffordshire and Seisdon Peninsula CCG | 7% | 28 | 2 | 3,847 | 2% |
| NHS South Reading CCG | 7% | 14 | 1 | 4,978 | 4% |
| NHS Thanet CCG | 7% | 15 | 1 | 8,884 | 6% |
| NHS West Leicestershire CCG | 7% | 46 | 3 | 10,564 | 3% |
| NHS Camden CCG | 6% | 33 | 2 | 3,786 | 1% |
| NHS Durham Dales, Easington and Sedgefield CCG | 6% | 36 | 2 | 7,518 | 3% |
| NHS East Staffordshire CCG | 6% | 18 | 1 | 11,824 | 8% |
| NHS East Surrey CCG | 6% | 18 | 1 | 1,370 | 1% |
| NHS Oldham CCG | 6% | 36 | 2 | 7,168 | 3% |
| NHS Sheffield CCG | 6% | 81 | 5 | 15,195 | 3% |
| NHS Southport and Formby CCG | 6% | 18 | 1 | 3,766 | 3% |
| NHS West Essex CCG | 6% | 33 | 2 | 13,273 | 5% |
| NHS Bromley CCG | 5% | 41 | 2 | 8,230 | 3% |
| NHS Cambridgeshire and Peterborough CCG | 5% | 100 | 5 | 22,711 | 2% |
| NHS Eastbourne, Hailsham and Seaford CCG | 5% | 20 | 1 | 6,817 | 3% |
| NHS Fareham and Gosport CCG | 5% | 20 | 1 | 9,471 | 5% |
| NHS Great Yarmouth and Waveney CCG | 5% | 19 | 1 | 2,017 | 1% |
| NHS Knowsley CCG | 5% | 21 | 1 | 2,982 | 2% |
| NHS Lewisham CCG | 5% | 38 | 2 | 12,477 | 4% |
| NHS Morecambe Bay CCG | 5% | 38 | 2 | 4,995 | 2% |
| NHS Nene CCG | 5% | 66 | 3 | 11,948 | 2% |
| NHS North Norfolk CCG | 5% | 19 | 1 | 11,666 | 7% |
| NHS Stockport CCG | 5% | 41 | 2 | 4,097 | 1% |
| NHS Calderdale CCG | 4% | 25 | 1 | 2,092 | 1% |
| NHS Croydon CCG | 4% | 56 | 2 | 7,394 | 2% |
| NHS Herefordshire CCG | 4% | 24 | 1 | 7,320 | 4% |
| NHS Manchester CCG | 4% | 81 | 3 | 9,579 | 2% |
| NHS Southern Derbyshire CCG | 4% | 52 | 2 | 8,298 | 2% |
| NHS Warrington CCG | 4% | 26 | 1 | 14,198 | 7% |
| NHS Wirral CCG | 4% | 50 | 2 | 4,177 | 1% |
| NHS Bradford Districts CCG | 3% | 38 | 1 | 9,782 | 3% |
| NHS Herts Valleys CCG | 3% | 61 | 2 | 12,632 | 2% |
| NHS Heywood, Middleton and Rochdale CCG | 3% | 31 | 1 | 1,662 | 1% |
| NHS Islington CCG | 3% | 32 | 1 | 1,731 | 1% |
| NHS North Derbyshire CCG | 3% | 35 | 1 | 3,044 | 1% |
| NHS North Staffordshire CCG | 3% | 29 | 1 | 4,458 | 2% |
| NHS Shropshire CCG | 3% | 40 | 1 | 3,379 | 1% |
| NHS South Warwickshire CCG | 3% | 34 | 1 | 4,579 | 2% |
| NHS Surrey Downs CCG | 3% | 31 | 1 | 1,928 | 1% |
| NHS Wakefield CCG | 3% | 39 | 1 | 9,967 | 3% |
| NHS Bristol CCG | 2% | 42 | 1 | 5,296 | 1% |
| NHS Northern, Eastern and Western Devon CCG | 2% | 102 | 2 | 6,570 | 1% |
| NHS Wolverhampton CCG | 2% | 42 | 1 | 2,003 | 1% |
| NHS Dorset CCG | 1% | 89 | 1 | 2,691 | 0% |
| NHS Gloucestershire CCG | 1% | 80 | 1 | 2,843 | 0% |
| NHS Oxfordshire CCG | 1% | 68 | 1 | 4,308 | 1% |
| NHS Airedale, Wharfedale and Craven CCG | 0% | 16 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Aylesbury Vale CCG | 0% | 17 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Bassetlaw CCG | 0% | 9 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Bath and North East Somerset CCG | 0% | 26 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Blackpool CCG | 0% | 17 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Canterbury and Coastal CCG | 0% | 17 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Chiltern CCG | 0% | 34 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Coastal West Sussex CCG | 0% | 49 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Crawley CCG | 0% | 12 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Darlington CCG | 0% | 11 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS East Leicestershire and Rutland CCG | 0% | 31 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS East Riding of Yorkshire CCG | 0% | 34 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Eastern Cheshire CCG | 0% | 21 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Erewash CCG | 0% | 12 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Guildford and Waverley CCG | 0% | 21 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Hambleton, Richmondshire and Whitby CCG | 0% | 22 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Harrogate and Rural District CCG | 0% | 17 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS High Weald Lewes Havens CCG | 0% | 20 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Horsham and Mid Sussex CCG | 0% | 23 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Ipswich and East Suffolk CCG | 0% | 39 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Isle of Wight CCG | 0% | 14 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Kernow CCG | 0% | 63 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Leeds North CCG | 0% | 25 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Lincolnshire West CCG | 0% | 31 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Merton CCG | 0% | 20 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Newark and Sherwood CCG | 0% | 14 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Newbury and District CCG | 0% | 10 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS North East Hampshire and Farnham CCG | 0% | 22 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS North Hampshire CCG | 0% | 19 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS North Lincolnshire CCG | 0% | 18 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS North Tyneside CCG | 0% | 28 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Northumberland CCG | 0% | 44 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Norwich CCG | 0% | 22 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Nottingham North and East CCG | 0% | 20 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Portsmouth CCG | 0% | 17 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Redditch and Bromsgrove CCG | 0% | 20 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Rushcliffe CCG | 0% | 12 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS South Cheshire CCG | 0% | 17 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS South Devon and Torbay CCG | 0% | 31 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS South Eastern Hampshire CCG | 0% | 22 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS South Norfolk CCG | 0% | 23 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS South West Lincolnshire CCG | 0% | 19 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS South Worcestershire CCG | 0% | 32 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Southampton CCG | 0% | 27 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Stafford and Surrounds CCG | 0% | 13 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Surrey Heath CCG | 0% | 8 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Sutton CCG | 0% | 25 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Telford and Wrekin CCG | 0% | 15 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Tower Hamlets CCG | 0% | 31 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS West Cheshire CCG | 0% | 34 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS West Hampshire CCG | 0% | 49 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS West Norfolk CCG | 0% | 18 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS West Suffolk CCG | 0% | 23 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Windsor, Ascot and Maidenhead CCG | 0% | 17 | 0 | – | 0% |
| NHS Wyre Forest CCG | 0% | 10 | 0 | – | 0% |