Gareth Ward the favourite to be re-elected in Kiama in NSW state election as he fights sex charges

A former state Liberal minister suspended from Parliament as he fights sex charges is the favourite to be re-elected at Saturday’s election.

Gareth Ward, the member for Kiama, is running as an independent and is the frontrunner in his NSW south coast electorate, with Sportsbet giving him the shortest odds of $1.35.

By comparison, his Liberal rival Melanie Gibbons has longer odds of $5. She was parachuted into the seat after losing a local Liberal Party preselection ballot for the seat of Holsworthy, 100km away, where she was the local MP. 

Daily Mail Australia understands internal Liberal Party polling shows Mr Ward will be re-elected for a fourth term, with Sportsbet again taking bets on him on Friday.

No odds were offered for Mr Ward late on Thursday night. 

Labor’s Katelin McInerney has odds of $5.50 in a seat her party had held from 1981 to 2011, when Mr Ward was elected as the Coalition was first swept to power.

Mr Ward was suspended from the Legislative Assembly in March last year after he was charged with three counts of indecent assault, one count of sexual intercourse without consent and one count of common assault. 

He had resigned from the Liberal Party in May 2021, after being part of the moderate faction.

The former minister for families, communities and disability services is contesting all charges with police alleging he indecently assaulted a 17-year-old boy at Meroo Meadow in 2013 and sexually assaulted a 27-year-old man in Sydney in 2015.

The case remains before the courts and Mr Ward said he is entitled to the presumption of innocence. 

Sportsbet predicts the Labor Opposition will pick up the Sydney seats of East Hills, Parramatta, Penrith and Riverstone from the Liberal Party, plus the notionally Labor electorate of Heathcote. 

That would leave Labor leader Chris Minns with 42 seats – five short of the necessary 47 number needed for a majority in the 93-member lower house, as the Coalition was left with 41 seats.

Mr Ward was suspended from the Legislative Assembly in March last year after he was charged with three counts of indecent assault, one count of sexual intercourse without consent and one count of common assault (he is pictured during Question Time in 2020)

Both Mr Minns and Liberal Premier Dominic Perrottet have vowed to refrain from seeking Mr Ward’s support to help form a minority government. 

This would make three Greens MPs the deciders, along with former gay marriage campaigner Alex Greenwich, regional independents Greg Piper and Joe McGirr, and former Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party members Helen Dalton, Phil Donato and Roy Butler.

Labor goes into the election with 36 seats it already holds, but two more with redistributions including the new seat of Leppington and the notionally Labor electorate of Heathcote, taking its existing tally to 38.

The Coalition starts with 44 seats, following an unfavourable redistribution in Heathcote, a by-election loss to Labor in Bega and the loss of two Liberal MPs to the crossbench because of scandal since the 2019 election. 

By comparison, Mr Ward’s Liberal rival Melanie Gibbons has longer odds of $5. She was parachuted into the seat after losing a local Liberal Party preselection ballot for the seat of Holsworthy, 100km away, where she was the local MP