A dozen countries could be added to the quarantine-free travel list this week, according to an expert.
Germany, Italy and Bulgaria are among those with Covid data healthy enough to mean they could go green on Thursday when the list is due to be updated by ministers.
Other countries that could join them include Canada, Austria, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Taiwan, according to analysis by Robert Boyle, a former BA strategist. This would increase the total on the green list from 27 to 39.
Heathrow chief John Holland-Kaye said: ‘Ministers need to extend this policy to US and EU nationals if they want to kick-start the economy’
There is also speculation that the Balearics are at risk of going amber on Thursday because infection rates there have soared
Mr Boyle’s analysis assumes that countries with a new Covid case rate of or below 20 per 100,000 of the population will be added, along with a test positivity rate of 1.5 per cent and testing rate of one or more per 100,000.
As it stands, Israel, Gibraltar, Malta, the Portuguese island of Madeira and Spain’s Balearic Islands are the only viable holiday destinations on the green list, which is reviewed every three weeks.
Canada is considered one of the most likely to go green, according to the analysis, which has a rate of nine new cases per 100,000 over the past seven days.
This does not bode well for hotspots such as mainland Portugal, Greece and Spain, whose case rates are 183 per 100,000, 119 per 100,000 and 219 per 100,000 respectively.
Vaccination rates, prevalence of variants of concern and the ability to detect them are also taken into consideration.
There is also speculation that the Balearics are at risk of going amber on Thursday because infection rates there have soared.
Mr Boyle’s analysis also suggests Malta and Israel could turn back to amber from green. Under new rules coming in from Monday, double-vaccinated Britons will be able to visit amber countries without having to quarantine on return. They will, however, still be required to take tests before and after their return.
For a family of four this could add at least £400 to the cost of a holiday. The travel industry wants the fully vaccinated to be exempt from testing, a position backed by former prime minister Tony Blair in a report earlier this month.
As it stands, Israel, Gibraltar, Malta, the Portuguese island of Madeira and Spain’s Balearic Islands are the only viable holiday destinations on the green list, which is reviewed every three weeks. (Pictured, Comino, Malta)
Non-fully vaccinated people as well as visiting foreigners from amber countries will still have to quarantine for up to ten days on arrival. They can take a further test on day five and leave quarantine early if it comes back negative. Jab status will be checked by airlines at check-in. But border guards will also be expected to continue checking passenger locator forms and proof of post-arrival testing.
Calls to move the United States from amber to green were growing last night after it emerged transatlantic traffic is still at very low levels.
Passenger traffic from Heathrow to the US is around 80 per cent lower, whereas the EU, which has reopened unilaterally with the US, has seen traffic recover to only around 40 per cent down. Adding the US to the green list would increase visitor numbers and provide a boost to tourism.
Heathrow chief John Holland-Kaye said: ‘Ministers need to extend this policy to US and EU nationals if they want to kick-start the economy. These changes will be critical for exporters who are losing out to EU rivals and families who have been separated from loved ones.’
British tourists are currently banned from the US.