Government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance says there is likely to be 55,000 cases of coronavirus in the UK and the number of new cases could start to fall in ‘two to three weeks’ because of the government’s crackdown on social contact
- Sir Patrick Vallance told Health Select Committee there could be 55,000 cases
- He said that sort of number was ‘reasonable sort of ballpark’ based on modelling
- Last week the government said it believed the number of cases was 5-10,000
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The government’s chief scientific adviser today revealed there are likely to be as many as 55,000 cases of coronavirus in the UK as official government statistics put the number at 1,950.
Sir Patrick Vallance said modelling of the spread of the disease in Britain showed that for every death there was likely to be 1,000 positive cases.
Latest official statistics put the death toll at 55 which means it is a ‘reasonable sort of ballpark’ to think there are now more than 50,000 cases nationwide, he said.
Last week the government estimated the number of cases was likely to be between 5-10,000.
As of 9am this morning some 50,442 people have been tested for coronavirus with 1,950 testing positive and 48,492 testing negative.
The latest number of confirmed deaths will be announced by the Department of Health later today.
The massive difference between the number of confirmed cases in the UK and the number of estimated positive cases is likely to prompt further scrutiny of the government’s testing regime.
Appearing in front of the Health Select Committee, Sir Patrick responded to the 55,000 number and said: ‘We have tried to get a handle on that in Sage [Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies] and you put all the modelling information together that is a reasonable sort of ballpark way of looking at it.
‘It is not more accurate than that.’
Sir Patrick Vallance told the Health Select Committee today that there could be as many as 55,000 cases of coronavirus in the UK
As of 9am yesterday there had been a total of 44,105 people tested for coronavirus and some 1,543 people tested positive.
Sir Patrick also said the government’s tough new social distancing measures announced by Boris Johnson yesterday could result in new case numbers falling inside a month.
He told MPs: ‘We should start to see the rates come down in two or three weeks’ time.’
Sir Patrick also said keeping the number of deaths at ‘20,000 and below’ would be a ‘good outcome’ but still ‘horrible’.
‘That is the hope that we can get it down to that,’ he said.
‘To put that into perspective every year in seasonal flu the number of deaths is thought to be about 8,000.
‘So if we can get this down to numbers 20,000 and below that is a good outcome in terms of where we would hope to get to in this outbreak.
‘But I mean it is still horrible. That is still an enormous number of deaths and it is an enormous pressure on the health service.’
Sir Patrick also revealed that coronavirus testing will be rolled out to key workers including NHS staff in the coming weeks.
That will enable the government and the health service to determine whether those workers can continue to work.
Sir Patrick told the committee: ‘The next group of people that I know PHE [Public Health England] and I checked with the CMO [Chief Medical Officer] to make sure this is exactly where they want to go, is to try and get to key workers and make sure they are tested and obviously healthcare workers would be absolutely there.
‘As the capacity ramps up that is where you would go next to make sure you can do that and I think that is the plan.’