‘Make no mistake, a flu pandemic is inevitable’: Economist urges Governments to stockpile antibiotics ahead of a pending outbreak as it’s the secondary bacterial infections that kill
- Having an effective drug on-hand would save the world £2.3-to-£3.1 billion
- Would avoid economic cost of high death toll, treatment and lost working days
- Government officials already warn flu poses a bigger threat than terrorism
An economist has urged Governments all over the world to stockpile antibiotics in preparation for a pending flu outbreak.
Although antibiotics are ineffective against the viruses that cause flu, Ramanan Laxminarayan warns it is the secondary bacterial infections – such as pneumonia – that are most deadly.
As well as saving lives, a study found stockpiling the drugs would save governments billions in treatment costs and working days lost.
Prediction: Experts from the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in Washington DC have urged governments around the world to stockpile antibiotics (stock)
The research was carried out by the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in Washington DC.
The economists created a model that analysed the financial value of holding antibiotics to use in global flu outbreaks, The Telegraph reported.
Results – published in the journal Health Economics – revealed stockpiling the drugs would save global economies between $3 and $4 billion (around £2.3-to-£3.1 billion).
These savings would come from avoiding the financial impact of sick days and urgent healthcare, as well as the death toll, Mr Laxminarayan said.
‘Most people don’t realise that what kills people during a pandemic is not just an influenza virus, but a secondary bacterial infection,’ he said.
‘Make no mistake, it’s inevitable that there will be another flu pandemic – it may happen next year, or in the next 15 years, but it is inevitable and we cannot prevent it.
‘There is huge value in stockpiling and withholding antibiotics so we are prepared.’
Mr Laxminarayan referenced the 1919 Spanish flu pandemic that killed between 50 and 100 million people around the world.
Most of these deaths were due to secondary bacterial infections, not the flu virus itself.
Around two per cent of the population died in the Spanish flu outbreak, which would equate to 886,877 deaths if it was to happen again.
Fears of a flu pandemic have mounted following the worst outbreak in recent years that rocked the UK, Australia and the US.
Dr Tedros Adhanom, chief of the World Health Organization, warned in February last year that humanity is ‘vulnerable’ to a pandemic.
The Cabinet Office already lists pandemic influenza as the biggest threat on the UK’s Risk Register – ahead of terrorism and cyber-attacks.
A mutated strain is the most likely to wipe out millions because it can join together with other flu strains to become deadlier.
This is what sparked the Swine flu pandemic of 2009, which killed nearly 300,000 people across the world after striking around 60 countries.