Hospitals could run out of ICU beds by early April amid coroanvirus pandemic

Hospitals could run out of beds in TWO WEEKS: Australia’s health system could be overwhelmed by coronavirus cases in ‘early April’, experts warn

  • Hospitals could run out of ICU beds by April due to the coronavirus pandemic, a statistics lecturer has warned
  • Up to 1.6 million people in NSW could contract coronavirus during the first wave of a statewide outbreak
  • Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said five per cent – or up to 80,000 people – would need intensive care 
  • According to a 2018 report by Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society, NSW only has 874 ICU beds
  • Coronavirus symptoms: what are they and should you see a doctor?

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Hospitals could run out of ICU beds by April as the number of coronavirus cases in Australia soars past 1,000. 

Health authorities warned up to 1.6 million people in New South Wales could contract coronavirus during the first wave of a statewide outbreak. 

Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant said preparations were underway for 20 per cent of the state’s eight million residents to catch COVID-19. 

She said forecasts showed five per cent of residents affected by coronavirus – or up to 80,000 people – would require intensive care.

According to a 2018 report by Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS), NSW only has 874 ICU beds

Hospitals could run out of ICU beds by April as the number of COVID-19 cases in Australia soars past 1,000

Hospitals could run out of ICU beds by April as the number of COVID-19 cases in Australia soars past 1,000

NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant (pictured) said preparations are underway for 20 per cent of the state's eight million residents to catch COVID-19

NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant (pictured) said preparations are underway for 20 per cent of the state’s eight million residents to catch COVID-19

But according to a 2018 report by Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS), NSW only has 874 ICU beds. 

The report said Australia had 8.92 beds per 100,000 population and a total of 2,229 ICU beds.

Based on these figures, James Cook University statistics lecturer Megan Higgie suggested the country could be without spare ICU beds by early April.

‘With the current worst-case scenario of exponential growth of COVID-19 cases, Australia may run out of ICU beds between 7 and 9 April,’ she and co-author Andrew Kahn wrote. 

The dates are based on the assumption all ICU beds are only used by COVID-19 patients and that Australia has not added new ICU beds since the 2018 report.

The research is also based on understanding that five per cent of COVID-19 cases become critical. 

‘We have seen anecdotal reports of six to 10 per cent of people requiring ICU beds,’ Ms Higgie wrote.  

‘Obviously this would bring the actual date much sooner. We have also seen reports that it may be less than five per cent.’

Ms Higgie wrote there were two further important points to consider.

The number of COVID-19 cases in Australia soared past 1,000 on Saturday

The number of COVID-19 cases in Australia soared past 1,000 on Saturday

CORONAVIRUS CASES IN AUSTRALIA: 1,073

New South Wales: 436

Victoria: 229

Queensland: 221

Western Australia: 90

South Australia: 67

Tasmania: 16

Australian Capital Territory: 9

Northern Territory: 5

TOTAL CASES:  1,073

DEAD: 7

‘There is a large lag between becoming infected and being ill enough to require medical attention. This lag is on average 10–14 days,’ she wrote. 

‘Given that April 7 is 19 days away, we only have five to nine days to take the serious action necessary to prevent this human disaster in Australia.’

The second point is that the majority of infections are passed to another person before symptoms appear. 

‘This is a much under-appreciated fact and explains why Australia is still experiencing exponential growth in spite of quarantining people once they are sick,’ she wrote.

Dr Chant told a NSW budget estimates hearing last Thursday that NSW Health was planning to double the state’s intensive care unit capacity and double the availability of ventilators. 

The response is in relation to both COVID-19 and the start of the flu season.

‘We think doubling is prudent in the first stage,’ Dr Chant said.

‘But if we have to do more, that’s fine.’

There are 1,073 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia.

New South Wales has the highest amount of cases in the country at 436. Six of the seven COVID-19 deaths have been in the state. 

'With the current worst-case scenario of exponential growth of COVID-19 cases, Australia may run out of ICU beds between 7 and 9 April,' James Cook University statistics lecturer Megan Higgie wrote (stock image)

‘With the current worst-case scenario of exponential growth of COVID-19 cases, Australia may run out of ICU beds between 7 and 9 April,’ James Cook University statistics lecturer Megan Higgie wrote (stock image)

 

Read more at DailyMail.co.uk