How are odds determined by bookmakers?

Odds, or bookmaker quotes, is the main term in sports betting that reflects the likelihood of a particular event. The bookmaker’s profit depends on the correct formation of the odds in order to stay in the black for any outcome of the match.

An analyst or a special department of a bookmaker thoroughly examines the event, analyzes statistics, applies the theory of probability, listens to the opinion of experts, and, based on all the information, decides that the first team will win. When forming quotes, specialists are based on real chances of an outcome.

Why are the odds constantly changing?

After calculating the coefficients and pledging the margin, the office does not stop influencing the values. First of all, the bets of the players affect the change in quotes. If a large flow of funds concentrates on one outcome, the coefficient for this market is significantly reduced, and for the opposite, it increases.

There may be other reasons for the line movement, which are associated with the emergence of new information. For example, a key performer was injured in a team, a coach changed, or rainy weather is expected. These factors affect both the outcome and the number of goals and other indicators of the game.

The bookmaker determines the probability of the outcome as a percentage and expresses the value in the coefficient, in which the margin is laid in order to make a profit, regardless of the volume of bets on various markets and the outcome of the event.

How does a bookmaker actually determine odds?

And can you get better odds the earlier you place your bets? In this article, we’ll explain it to you!

Bookmakers who put their odds online early are known as the ‘brave bookies’. If they offer odds that are too high, bettors from all over will take advantage of these high odds, and before you know it, you’ll have a lopsided bet.

Bookmakers who put their odds on the market early have a team of specialists who determine opening odds, so-called ‘odd setters’. An odd-setters’ job is solely to determine odds. It is important to realize that the odds they determine are not wholly based on the teams’ chances of winning, but also on how they think the general public will allocate their stakes.

Behind every odd, there is a story, and every odd is actually a story in itself. The problem is that they are never objective. Everyone, including the people who determine the odds for the bookies, gives their own subjective view on a match and determines the probability percentages based on this.

A Liverpool win against Arsenal one week will lower the odds for a Liverpool win against Burnley the next, but Burnley is a completely different opponent to Arsenal.  And anything can happen on the day.

Be aware that there are two sides to every story, and that odds are influenced by a multitude of different factors. The odds are not always right, or even fair, and you should take a good, objective look at the bets and the corresponding odds before betting yourself.