The last time an aggressive Asian power took a foothold in Solomon Islands most Australians understood the threat it posed to the security of the entire region.
Eighty years ago the Imperial Japanese Navy landed troops in the southern Solomons to establish a base from which it could further occupy the Pacific.
Japan planned to use Solomon Islands to support advances on Nauru, New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa, and the invasion of New Guinea.
The Allies feared Japan could eventually cut vital shipping and communication lines between the US and Australia. Thousands of soldiers, sailors and airmen fought and died to stop them doing it.
Today there are similar territorial fears after China signed a security pact with Solomon Islands, which lies less than 2,000km to Australia’s north east.
China’s new security pact with Solomon Islands represents the first major threat to Australia’s eastern seaboard by a hostile foreign power in 80 years. It is feared China will soon build a military base on the island which could allow the deployment of missiles, planes and warships
The last time an aggressive Asian power took a foothold in Solomon Islands most Australians understood the threat posed to the region. When Japan invaded the archipelago it led to some of the bloodiest fighting of World War II. US troops are pictures in the Battle of Guadalcanal
This perceived threat might be less immediate than that posed by Japan in World War II but Solomon Islands’ geographic position is no less important than it was then.
That Australia failed to stop a long-time ally cosying up with an expansionist communist China has been described by the nation’s greatest foreign policy failure of the past 80 years.
Strategic experts have warned China will move quickly to establish a military base in the Solomons so it can have a permanent presence in that part of the Pacific.
China has claimed the arrangement will promote peace and stability but sceptics believe it will likely put missiles in range of Australia’s major east coast cities.
While the pact will allow Chinese naval deployments to the Solomons in some circumstances, China claims it does not intend building a military base in the islands.
Solomon Islands had previously looked to Australia, New Zealand and the United States for protection and assistance. The nation lies less than 2,000km to Australia’s north east. Australian soldiers are pictured in the Solomons last year
Strategic expert Malcolm Davis said the Chinese would build a naval base on the Solomons which would be followed by an air base. A Chinese fighter is pictured
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Malcolm Davis did not accept those assurances and said there was a real risk China would establish a base for the People’s Liberation Army ‘by stealth’.
‘Let’s say that within the next year or so the Chinese establish a military base on the Solomon Islands,’ Davis said. ‘What does that look like?
‘Based on the documentation we’ve seen it’s going to be a naval base, a shore facility that would support the deployment of PLA navy vessels – destroyers, frigates, that sort of thing – into the South West Pacific.
‘From that base, those navy vessels can then deploy into the Cora Sea into Australia’s maritime approaches.’
Davis said such a scenario would represent the first time since World War II that a hostile foreign power had put Australia’s eastern seaboard under threat.
‘We could see Chinese naval vessels – submarines for example – able to launch land-attack cruise missiles against military bases and cities,’ he said.
Strategic expert Malcolm Davis said the Chinese were likely to build a naval base on the Solomons which would support the deployment of vessels including destroyers and frigates. China’s aircraft carrier the Liaoning is pictured in Chinese waters
Davis said any naval base would need to be supported from the air and China would want to extend the capital Honiara’s runway to allow supply by PLA transport aircraft.
‘That opens up the possibility of Chinese maritime control aircraft, intelligence gathering aircraft and even long-range bombers that could launch a range of long-range weapons against Australia’s eastern seaboard,’ he said.
By extending the PLA’s reach to the Solomons, China could more easily watch and potentially target Australian military bases.
Davis said China would also use their Solomons facilities for signals and electronic intelligence gathering to monitor Australia’s defence activities.
‘They could potentially in the longer term put down undersea sonar systems to monitor what we’re doing with our submarines,’ he said.
‘If you look at the geography of the region, the Solomon Islands is ideally located to do all of these things.’
‘We could see Chinese naval vessels – submarines for example – able to launch land attack cruise missiles against military bases and cities,’ strategic expert Malcolm Davis said. Two Chinese Jin-class ballistic missile submarines are pictured in the South China Sea
Davis said once China gained a presence in a country it was almost impossible to get them out of there.
‘If the Chinese go ahead and build this base then for the first time since essentially 1942 we are facing the prospect that in wartime our cities and our bases on the east coast could be open to attack.’
‘So it is a very serious issue and frankly when you look at the way the agreement is written it’s an open and shut case.’
Davis said even in peacetime a Chinese presence in the Solomons represented all sorts of ‘grey zone’ threats.
In February, a Chinese naval vessel aimed a laser at an RAAF Poseidon patrol aircraft in the Arafura Sea, between the Northern Territory and Papua New Guinea.
‘Those sorts of incidents could become regular,’ Davis said. ‘The Chinese could behave in an aggressive fashion right off our east coast.’
The battle to retake Guadalcanal saw some of the fiercest fighting of World War II. More than 7,000 Allied servicemen were killed and HMAS Canberra went down with the loss of 84 crew. The USS President Adams is pictured off the coast of Guadalcanal in November 1942
Davis’s colleague at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, Peter Jennings, believes the pact could have been avoided.
‘For decades we have over-estimated our influence in the Pacific, under-invested in promoting our security, and failed to appreciate China’s strategic intent,’ he has written.
Jennings believes Solomon Islands can be convinced to walk away from the deal with China but it will take lots of money and ‘focused effort’.
The text of the agreement announced on Tuesday has not been released but a leaked draft document provided some detail.
That document referred to China being provided with ‘logistical replenishment’, ‘stopover and transition in Solomon Islands’ and it carrying out ‘major projects’.
Jennings expected Chinese cargo aircraft and ships to arrive in Honiara in coming weeks with materials to start building.
Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese said the pact was a ‘massive foreign policy failure’ on the part of Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
The text of the agreement between China and Solomons Islands announced on Tuesday has not been released but a leaked draft document provided some detail. China’s President Xi Jinping is pictured
Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs Penny Wong said China having a security alliance with Solomon Islands had made the entire region less secure.
‘On Scott Morrison’s watch our region has become less secure and the risks that Australia faces have become much greater,’ Wong told the ABC.
‘Yet again Mr Morrison has gone missing and might talk a tough game, but what we are seeing on his watch is the worst Australian foreign policy blunder in the Pacific since the end of World War II.’
As the nation prepares to commemorate Anzac Day and remember the sacrifices it has made in all wars, Australia has lost a new battle without putting up a fight.
The US is sending a delegation led by its so-called ‘Asia tsar’ Kurt Campbell to the Solomons in a bid to protect its interests. The last time it was so worried about the fate of the islands it sent planes and warships.
China has claimed the arrangement will promote peace and stability but sceptics believe it will likely put missiles in range of Australia’s eastern seaboard. The agreement also once again threatens Australia’s ocean lifeline to the US. Chinese soldiers are pictured
The Imperial Japanese Navy landed troops at Tulagai in the Solomons on May 2, 1945 to establish a base from which it could further occupy the archipelago.
The next day, a US aircraft carrier task force struck the landing operation with air raids but the Japanese stayed and resisted. In July they took Guadalcanal, the largest island in the Solomons.
The battle to retake Guadalcanal saw some of the fiercest fighting of World War II. More than 7,000 Allied servicemen were killed and HMAS Canberra went down with the loss of 84 crew.
In the wider Solomons Islands campaign more than 10,000 troops from the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand lost their lives before the Japanese were defeated.
Davis cited the similarities between now and then.
‘From a military geo-strategic perspective Solomon Islands is like a key territory to control and it’s one of the reasons why the Japanese sought to control it in the Second World War and we ended up in the Battle of Guadalcanal,’ strategic expert Malcolm Davis said
‘From a military geo-strategic perspective Solomon Islands is a key territory to control and it’s one of the reasons why the Japanese sought to control it in the Second World War and we ended up in the Battle of Guadalcanal,’ he said.
‘The same issues and factors are at play here except of course the weapons systems and technologies are that much more advanced compared to, say, 1942.’
Eight decades later Japan is among the nations watching closely as China attempts to extend its reach across the Pacific.
Davis said the US also had reason to worry about the Chinese projecting power into the central Pacific, which could complicate its ability to move through the ocean and ‘cut off’ its Guam base.
‘If the Chinese then focus northwards, then can monitor US military activities at Kwajalein Atoll, which is a major missile testing site, and of course Hawaii, where the US 7th Fleet is located,’ he said.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, Foreign Minister Jeremiah Manele, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and and Foreign Minister Wang Yi sign an earlier agreement between the two countries at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing in 2019
A US National Security Council spokesperson said the pact ‘follows a pattern of China offering shadowy, vague deals with little regional consultation in fishing, resource management, development assistance and now security practices.’
The population of the Solomons is just 652,000, spread across six large islands and more than 900 smaller ones, covering 28,000 square kilometres.
Those islands sit about 1,800km east of Papua New Guinea and 680km from Bougainville. Davis is worried about the effect of the Chinese pact on them both.
‘From the Solomon Islands the Chinese are very well placed then to project power and influence and presence throughout the South West Pacific,’ he said.
‘My specific concern is Papua New Guinea and Bougainville. The Chinese have already invested substantially into Papua New Guinea and they’re very interested in supporting the Bougainville independence movement.
‘If we’re worried now about the Solomon Islands hosting a Chinese base, imagine what it would be like if PNG agrees to the same thing after being given bags of money by Chinese diplomats.’
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said the Solomon Islands government led by prime minister Manasseh Sogavare had guaranteed it would not allow the Chinese to build naval bases. The pair is pictured together
Morrison has said the Solomon Islands government led by prime minister Manasseh Sogavare had guaranteed it would not allow the Chinese to build naval bases.
He has also defended sending Pacific minister Zed Seselja rather than Foreign Minister Marise Payne to the Solomons to try to stop the pact going ahead.
‘I’m very conscious of how visits are perceived within the Pacific,’ Morrison said. ‘One of the things you don’t do in the Pacific is you don’t throw your weight around.
‘They’re a sovereign country and we have to respect their sovereignty.’
Eighty years ago Australia and its allies did not stand back and watch when Japan threw its weight around in the Pacific.
Instructors from a China Police Liaison Team train Solomons Islands Police Force officers in March this year. The Chinese instructors were teaching the local police unarmed combat skills and how to use automatic weapons
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