Pictured: Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI’s Defence, Strategy and National Security Program
Australia is going to have to get used to heavy casualties, bombing raids on home soil, the possibility of Sydney Harbour being mined with explosives and waves of crippling cyber attacks on critical infrastructure if war breaks out over Taiwan, a leading military strategist has warned.
Dr Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst with ASPI’s Defence, Strategy and National Security Program, told Daily Mail Australia it is increasingly likely President Xi Jinping will order Chinese forces to invade the disputed island of Taiwan before the end of the decade.
Such a scenario would almost certainly provoke a military response by the US prompting Australian forces to also get involved as part of the ANZUS treaty.
But the grim reality of full-scale conflict in the Indo-Pacific would have dire consequences for Australia, which has enjoyed peace and stability since World War II ended in 1945.
Even before the nuclear threshold is reached, sea mines would be planted in places such as Sydney Harbour to deter Chinese ships and submarines from seizing control of ports, Dr Davis said.
Chinese ‘soft-kill’ attacks which include cyber warfare campaigns and missile strikes on satellites would also severely impact Australia’s critical infrastructure and choke the nation’s economy.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (pictured with US troops) has already flagged a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan will take place by 2027
‘What we would definitely see are cyber attacks on our critical infrastructure that could trigger a banking system collapse, a breakdown of our food distribution systems and major stock market crash,’ Dr Davis said.
‘So if you remember we were fighting over rolls of toilet paper at the beginning of the Covid pandemic just imagine what would happen if there was no food on the shelves or if you can’t get money out of a bank.
‘These are the kind of things we will need to prepare if we are locked in a war with a sophisticated adversary.’
President Xi has repeatedly declared that the Chinese Liberation Army will annex the democratic island of Taiwan, 180km off its coast, as part of China’s ‘national rejuvenation plan’.
The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong’s brutal communist regime.
Australia cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan in 1972, recognising the People’s Republic under the ‘One China’ policy. But western democracies have continued to support the island’s struggle against China’s dictatorial ambitions.
Pictured: The Taiwanese military carry out live-fire exercises with a CM-11 Brave Tiger tank simulating and invasion by Chinese forces
Pictured: Taiwanese Naval forces hold military exercises preparing for an invasion by the Chinese military
President Joe Biden has vowed US troops would come to the aid of Taiwan, with Australia and Japanese officials also voicing their support.
Dr Davis said it’s increasingly likely Xi will move to take the island by 2027 – a date which coincides with the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army.
‘Xi wants to be the paramount leader of China – even above Mao – and the way he does that is by taking Taiwan and vanquishing the US,’ he said.
‘The first phase may begin right after the Beijing Winter Olympics early next year and continue up until the time they try to invade.’
This, according to Dr Davis, is likely to include ‘grey zone coercive campaigns’ that fall below the threshold to justify a military response by the West.
‘They will try infiltration and espionage to ramp up the pressure on the Taiwanese government and get them to bend the knee to Beijing,’ he said.
The first phase may even involve air and naval blockades, cyber attacks and seizing offshore territories such as Penghu Island in the South China Sea, as a way to slowly choke Taiwan’s economy.
One of Australia’s key roles in a potential military conflict with China would be the ‘rapid reconstitution of satellites’. Pictured: Australian military set up a mobile satellite dish
Dr Davis believes the strategy will eventually fail leaving Xi with the choice to either give up – which may see the Chinese Communist Party lose political legitimacy – or attempt a rapid cross-strait invasion before the US and its allies can react.
Beijing could alternatively launch strikes on US military bases across the Indo-Pacific in Guam, Okinawa and Australia’s north – knee-capping the West’s military response.
‘A Pearl Harbour 2.0 attack would decapitate the US military’s ability to intervene and make it impossible for western forces to respond effectively to the invasion of Taiwan,’ he said.
‘The interesting scenario in my mind is if China strikes US forces in the region, the US takes heavy casualties and then strikes back, what happens then? It is possible then you could see a protracted war between two nuclear-armed powers.’
Australia is unlikely to send ground troops and ships to battle but submarines and aircraft with the ability to strike Chinese forces could be a possibility. Pictured: An air battle manager in the Australian Defence Force conducts surveillance operations as part of military exercises
Chinese bombs could hit the top secret CIA-run station at Pine Gap in Alice Spring (pictured), the RAAF base in Darwin housing 2,200 US marines and the Harold E Holt Naval Communication Station near Exmouth, WA
Australia would be compelled to support US forces under the ANZUS agreement because ‘turning our back on the Americans would be the end of the alliance’.
‘In a worst case scenario, that will leave Australia exposed and alone facing a very dangerous situation with Beijing, so it makes every sense to support the US,’ Dr Davis said.
‘One of the things Australia would do as a US ally is to support American space capabilities through rapid reconstitution of satellites.
‘Given we have our own commercial space sector that’s building satellites and developing launch vehicles, we have the opportunity to launch satellites into orbit very quickly and in a matter of days – that adds to our ability to have space resilience which is critical in modern warfare.
‘There will be a struggle to gain and maintain space control so if they took out all of our satellites we could quickly throw them back up.’
Shocking disparities between Australia and China’s military power shows we would struggle in a war
Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen (pictured waving from atop a submarine) has remained staunch in the face of Chinese aggression – with many nations now at loggerheads with the communist superpower
Is Taiwan a country or a part of China?
Taiwanese soldiers hoist the flag of Taiwan in Taipei on May 10. China considers Taiwan as a part of its territory, but many Taiwanese people want the island to be independent
China and Taiwan have a long-standing dispute over the island’s sovereignty.
China considers Taiwan as a part of its territory, more precisely a province, but many Taiwanese want the island to be independent.
From 1683 to 1895, Taiwan was ruled by China’s Qing dynasty. After Japan claimed its victory in the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing government forced to cede Taiwan to Japan.
The island was under the Republic of China’s ruling after World War II, with the consent of its allies the US and UK.
The leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party, Chiang Kai-shek, fled to Taiwan in 1949 and established his government after losing the Civil War to the Communist Party and its leader Mao Zedong.
Chiang’s son continued to rule Taiwan after his father and began democratising Taiwan.
In 1980, China put forward a formula called ‘one country, two systems’, under which Taiwan would be given significant autonomy if it accepted Chinese reunification. Taiwan rejected the offer.
Taiwan today, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders, is widely accepted in the West as an independent state. But its political status remains unclear.
But coming to the aid of Taiwan will make Australia a prime target for missile attacks from China.
The first locations China would hit are Australian military bases housing US forces.
That means bombs could strike the top secret CIA-run station at Pine Gap in Alice Spring, the RAAF base in Darwin housing 2,200 US marines and the Harold E Holt Naval Communication Station near Exmouth, WA.
While the US will move fast to send aircraft carriers to the battle, it’s unlikely Australia will send troops or naval vessels to the Taiwan Strait, as ‘our ships would be sunk within hours’ by China’s sophisticated area-denial missile systems, Dr Davis said.
President Joe Biden has vowed US troops would come to the aid of Taiwan, with Australia and Japanese officials also voicing their support. Pictured: Japanese Ground Self-Defence Force soldiers board a U.S. Marine V22-Osprey tilt-rotor airframe during military exercises
Australia’s way of life could be unrecognisable with sea mines planted in places like Sydney Harbour (pictured) to deter Chinese ships and submarines from seizing control of ports
But deploying submarines and aircraft with the ability to strike Chinese forces could be a possibility, however Australia’s jets and boats are more suited to short-range tactical missions and not long-range battles.
‘Our main contribution to the battle will be our location. We offer a great piece of real estate for US forces to operate from, to recover to, to resupply and to repair battle damage,’ Mr Davis said.
‘Australia also has an openly declared offensive cyber capability so there is a range of ways we could contribute without sending ships and men only to be killed.
‘The government has just approved sovereign manufacturing of missiles, that’s also really important because it means we can produce missiles that not only support the Australian defence force but also can support the US.’
Australia would be compelled to support US forces under the ANZUS agreement because ‘turning our back on the Americans would be the end of the alliance’. Pictured: ADF soldiers in action
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