How has Covid-19 affected your hometown?

Scientists have created an interactive graphic which reveals how different areas of England and Wales have been affected by the coronavirus.

Damning statistics yesterday revealed that more than 51,000 people have died with Covid-19 across the UK since the outbreak began in February. 

But not all areas have been hit equally hard. More than 1,000 have died in Birmingham, England’s second biggest city, whereas none at all died on the tiny Isles of Scilly off the coast of Cornwall.

Now researchers at the University of Cambridge have compiled data from the Office for National Statistics into an interactive module that the public can use to track deaths in England and Wales over the past six months.

They show the numbers of people dying each week surged well above average between the end of March and beginning of May as the virus swept through the UK, killing tens of thousands of elderly people and those with serious health conditions, as well as healthy citizens and children.

The data revealed that more than 13,000 people died of Covid-19 in care homes up to May 29, along with another 11,000 unexplained ‘excess’ deaths which experts believe may largely have been undiagnosed coronavirus.

A further 28,000 people died in NHS hospitals of the coronavirus, while people dying on wards of other causes dropped dramatically by around 10,000 amid suggestions Brits were too scared to seek medical care. 

At the same time, however, some 2,000 people have died at home with Covid-19, along with nearly 12,000 people who died in private homes of other causes. Many of those would have likely been hospital patients in normal times, the researchers said.

Here’s how to use the module: 

• First select the area you want to look at – it can be England and Wales, either country individually, or a local authority within one of the nations;
• Select the data set: ‘occurrences’ is the most accurate because it counts the day someone actually died, while ‘registrations’ is the day on which they were counted, which usually comes days or even weeks later; 
• Baseline: The difference between the two options is minimal. Baseline is the average number of deaths against which this year’s figures are compared. They are collected from the past five years. The ‘five year average’ is the true average, and ‘adjusted’ is what would have been expected without the pandemic, adjusting the five-year average using the number of deaths in the first 10 weeks of this year;
• Select time frame: Using the ‘start week’ and ‘stop week’ drop-down menus you can choose which date range to look at. The first coronavirus death in England happened on March 2, according to NHS England. Any time periods before March will not show any Covid-19 fatalities, but they are useful for comparing how the numbers rose.

The data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is the most accurate for England and Wales because it takes into account everyone who has Covid-19 mentioned on their death certificate, whether they were diagnosed with the virus or not.

This means it includes people who were not tested before they died, meaning the number of deaths is higher than that announced by the Department of Health because the Government only tested hospital patients between March and the end of April.

Statistics show that Birmingham has had by far the most coronavirus deaths in hospitals, with 799, along with Leeds (359), Liverpool (354) and the London borough of Brent (350).

County Durham and Sheffield experienced the most Covid-19 deaths in care homes, with 304 and 260, respectively, although the researchers noted Durham has the third highest rate of care home deaths in normal times.

A five-fold surge in care home deaths happened in Islington, London, where 84 people died compared to the average of 16, while the number of people dying at home in Newham, in the east of the city, rose eight-fold from 16 to 141.

Dr Harry Giles and Professor David Spiegelhalter, the statisticians who created the interactive, pointed out the ‘notable’ local authorities above but said: ‘We deliberately avoid creating “league tables”, as chance variability can produce spurious rankings.’

Britain’s coronavirus death yesterday jumped by 286 to an official total 40,883. 

Northern Ireland has now gone three days in a row without recording a single fatality as the outbreak there continues to fade. 

Department of Health figures showed 277 of the Covid-19 victims were from England, while the other nine were in Wales. No laboratory-confirmed deaths were recorded in Scotland and Northern Ireland. 

But separate grim statistics suggest the disease has already claimed at least 51,000 lives in the UK. 

Other data shows nearly 64,000 ‘excess deaths’ have already been recorded across the home nations since the outbreak spiralled out of control in March.

Data compiled by the statistical bodies of each of the home nations show 51,086 people died of either confirmed or suspected Covid-19 across the UK by the end of May.

The real number of victims will be even higher because the tally only takes into account deaths that occurred up until May 31 in Scotland and May 29 in the rest of Britain, meaning it is up to 10 days out of date.

The Office for National Statistics on Tuesday confirmed that 46,421 people in England and Wales died with confirmed or suspected Covid-19 by May 29.

The total number of coronavirus deaths was 754 by the same date in Northern Ireland, according to the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA).

National Records Scotland — which collects statistics north of the border — said 3,911 people had died across the country by May 31.

Their tallies are always 10 days behind the Department of Health (DH) because they wait until as many fatalities as possible for each date have been counted, to avoid having to revise their statistics.

By comparison, the DH announces deaths for each day as soon as it receives them, meaning they are continuously updated as more registrations filter through the system.

Because of this recording lag, the number of deaths announced on any date is significantly higher by the time the ONS has calculated it. 

The difference between the statistics agencies’ total and the Department of Health total for May 29 is around 33.8 per cent (51,074 compared to 38,161).

If the most recent death toll announced by the government was increased by the same amount it would mean that there have already been 54,100 Covid-19 victims who died. 

Data released by the ONS, the statistical body for England and Wales, also showed weekly deaths in the seven-day spell ending May 29 plummeted to the lowest rate all year. 

Only 9,824 deaths were registered in the two countries that week — still 1,600 deaths higher than what would usually be expected. 

Both England and Wales — which suffered 16,000 deaths during the darkest fortnight of the crisis in April — are now en route to the way they were before the unprecedented lockdown was imposed on March 23.

The ONS figures also showed less than a fifth of deaths registered in the week ending May 29 in England and Wales involved coronavirus — the lowest proportion since when lockdown was imposed on March 23.   

It is also the first time the proportion of weekly Covid-19 deaths has fallen to under a fifth since the week lockdown was imposed, the week ending March 27, when the virus accounted for 5 per cent of the deaths.

While numbers are falling, there have been tens of thousands of ‘excess’ deaths compared to the average number of deaths over five years for the same period. 

The total number of excess deaths has passed 63,500, with Tuesday’s figures showing 57,961 excess deaths in England and Wales between March 21 and May 29 2020. 

Excess deaths are considered to be an accurate measure of the number of people killed by the pandemic because they include a broader spectrum of victims. 

As well as including people who may have died with Covid-19 without ever being tested, the data also shows how many more people died because their medical treatment was postponed, for example, or who didn’t or couldn’t get to hospital when they were seriously ill.

Nick Stripe, head of health analysis at the ONS, said some deaths involving coronavirus in care homes ‘will have brought forward deaths that might otherwise have happened relatively soon’.

He tweeted: ‘We might expect deaths not involving Covid in care homes to fall below 5-yr avgs (average) in the next few weeks.’