Labor has spectacularly lost an ‘unloseable’ election after being the overwhelming favourite for well over a year.
Poll after poll indicated Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s wide-reaching policy platform had been embraced by voters.
But they were all wrong, even the exit poll that predicted a 52-48 result for Labor, and Scott Morrison will remain prime minister.
Poll after poll indicated Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s wide-reaching policy platform had been embraced by voters – instead he lost and stepped down as leader
But they were all wrong, even the exit poll that predicted a 52-48 result for Labor, and Scott Morrison (pictured with his wife Jenny) will remain prime minister
Even senior Coalition figures were astonished by the result after bracing for losses and numerous ministers quitting rather than heading for opposition.
Mr Shorten’s big target agenda has quickly come under fire as being too expansive for voters to accept, and alienating too many who they needed to win over.
‘You could have been the government tonight, you fools, but you’re not,’ Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce said after his own easy reelection.
‘When they decide their voters live in Woolloomooloo, Queensland will leave you alone. In this area as well, people are talking about their power prices.
‘They want to know how they can get dignity in their lives by being able to turn on their fridge, the toaster. This is the issue that resonates with them.’
Labor pitched a transformative slate of policies aimed at stamping Mr Shorten’s vision on the country.
They included big-spending promises on subsidised childcare, making housing more affordable, and closing the gap between rich and poor.
‘You could have been the government tonight, you fools, but you’re not,’ Nationals MP Barnaby Joyce said after his own easy reelection
A happy Peter Dutton celebrates after winning his seat. He was expected to lose his seat but the swing went the other way
However, another big policy was its efforts to fight climate change with ambitious emissions reduction targets and promoting electric cars.
Though this pleased inner-city voters in Mr Shorten’s home state of Victoria, many Australians perceived this as an attack on their way of life.
The Coalition successfully argued its plans would hurt the economy and that a focus on renewable energy would force up power prices.
The bloodbath in Queensland was in large part driven by these issues, along with Labor’s opposition to the Adani coal mine.
‘This particular project became a symbol of pro or anti-climate. The LNP wanted to message it being pro or anti jobs,’ Labor shadow foreign affairs minister Penny Wong admitted on the ABC election panel.
‘That’s challenging as a Labor Party. As party of government, we have to manage the right policy and manage explaining that in Melbourne just as we do in Brisbane and the outer suburbs and it’s a challenge for us.’
Liberal Senator Arthur Sinodinos said: ‘It became emblematic of “we want jobs” and the Bob Brown (pictured) caravan which went up there to talk about stopping Adani’
Anti-Adani protesters follow Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg (centre) as he arrives to vote at a booth in Balwyn for the seat of Kooyong on Election Day in Melbourne
Liberal Senator Arthur Sinodinos said some of the result could be explained by those opposing the Adani project being seen as anti-jobs.
‘Adani became about jobs. It became emblematic of ‘we want jobs’ and the Bob Brown caravan which went up there to talk about stopping Adani, had locals thinking ‘hang on, you are not going to tell us how to live’,’ he said.
ABC election analyst Anthony Green agreed as he discussed the results of seats in central and northern Queensland.
‘The voters have emphatically sent a message of some sort to Canberra [about the Adani mine],’ he said.
‘There will be a lot of discussion about what’s caused this swing but I think I’ve got a rough idea what people can be pointing their finger at in terms of what was the big issue in north Queensland.’
Additionally, Labor needed a way to pay for pay for all their policies or they would be accused of being bad economic managers who can’t balance the budget.
Mr Shorten also aims for half of all new cars sold in Australia to be electric by 2030
So the opposition mounted an attack on the ‘top end of town’ by closing a series of tax loopholes, which is now being slammed as the ‘politics of envy’.
One of its signature policies was restricting negative gearing to new homes, and halve the capital gains tax discount from 50 per cent to 25 per cent, to make houses more affordable.
The existing policy gives housing investors a tax break if they make short-term losses on real estate investments.
Property analysts lined up to claim this would slash house prices by a quarter or more, and could even hurt the rest of the economy.
Investors weren’t happy either and the Coalition was able to spin it as punishing people just trying to get ahead.
Another policy would end cash refunds on franking credits for self-funded retirees, which is where shareholders who receive dividends are given a tax refund.
Former Liberal prime minister John Howard slammed Labor’s approach as the ‘politics of envy’ that divided Australia on class
Labor pitched a transformative slate of policies aimed at stamping Mr Shorten’s vision on the country
This is so they aren’t effectively doubled-tax, since a listed company has also already paid corporate tax under the dividend imputations system.
The Opposition estimated this will save $58.2 billion over the next decade, and sparing taxpayers $4.4 billion in 2020-21.
This policy did not win Labor any favours with retirees, and made it harder for them to win marginal seats in areas popular with older voters.
Former Liberal prime minister John Howard slammed Labor’s approach as the ‘politics of envy’ that divided Australia on class.
‘All of this talk about the big end of town, if you make a few bob and you are successful, and you want to invest, and you want to leave some of your children, it doesn’t make you the big end of town,’ he said.
‘He has done something I don’t think Bob Hawke would have ever done, and that is trying to divide the country on class lines… I think he stumbled badly.’
Other Coalition figures had similar thoughts on why Labor failed so spectacularly, sharing their thoughts with the ABC’s Patricia Karvelas.
‘They’re saying their target was too big, too risky, they alienated voters in Queensland,’ she told the ABC’s election panel.
There will be more recriminations in days and weeks to come and some soul-searching by the ALP as to how it all went so horribly wrong
Mr Shorten’s big target agenda has quickly come under fire as being too much for voters to accept, and alienating too many who they needed to win
Finally, Mr Shorten was personally unpopular, perceived as a factional warlord who lacked charisma – even with the help of his wife Chloe.
He was for much of his career remembered as the man who stabbed Kevin Rudd in the back for Julia Gillard, then knifed her too.
As a former Australian Workers Union secretary he was perceived as too much of a union hack in a Labor Party constantly accused of being beholden to union interests.
‘There was also some commentary around Bill Shorten as an individual, saying his negative rating it was overwhelming in the campaign and they couldn’t withstand it,’ Karvelas said Coalition sources told her.
Finally, the opposition fell into the same trap everyone else did and believed in its own hype far too much.
With polling indicating they couldn’t possibly lose they became complacent with the campaigning and took too many risks.
They also didn’t effectively counter Mr Morrison’s attacks on their positions and allowed him to chip away during a spirited campaign.
There will be more recriminations in days and weeks to come and some soul-searching by the ALP as to how it all went so horribly wrong.
The next chapter won’t be led by Bill Shorten as he resigned as Labor leader in his concession speech.