How NATO’s capital cities would be vaporised by Putin’s nukes

Ever since the frenzied nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union that characterised the Cold War, humankind has held the horrifying power to erase itself from existence in a radioactive firestorm. Despite various multilateral arms limitation treaties, the number of nuclear warheads held by the two most well-armed powers – the US and Russia – still sits well into the thousands, more than enough for total mutually assured destruction. In the event of a large-scale nuclear launch from any state, its foes would almost certainly let loose their own doomsday machines, turning much of the globe into a nuclear wasteland. But Vladimir Putin’s decision to hit Ukraine with a never-before-seen hypersonic, nuclear-capable missile last month forced world leaders and military chiefs to confront a new possibility – that of a single, well-placed strike on a target in the West or one of its allies. Though early warning systems would hopefully detect a missile launch directed at the West, giving defensive networks a chance to intercept, there remains a scenario in which a major Western city could suffer an isolated attack.

With the help of a model produced by Alex Wellerstein, a professor and historian of nuclear technology, MailOnline examines the devastating effect of a single Russian Topol-M SS-27 ICBM if detonated above some of Europe and America’s major population centres. The Topol is by no means Russia’s most devastating nuclear weapon – the likes of the RS-36 ‘Satan’ ICBM carries multiple warheads each with a yield order of magnitude greater. But the modern Topol missile’s warhead still comes with an estimated yield of roughly 800 kilotons – more than 50 times the power of the first atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The following estimations of casualty figures and damage reports are based on the event of a Topol-M 800-kiloton warhead exploding a few hundred feet above the ground. The figures do not take into account the untold numbers of people who would perish following days, weeks or months of the blast from the effects of acute radiation sickness amid the radioactive fallout, lack of access to food, water, power, medical care and other basic services.

As the explosion forms a towering mushroom cloud in the air, fires would spread over a large area, even putting people in underground shelters at risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. Anyone within three square kilometres of the detonation of the Topol is instantly vaporised by a towering fireball as hot as the sun (inner yellow ring). The Houses of Parliament, Buckingham Palace, Westminster Abbey and Trafalgar Square are completely and utterly destroyed. Within a fraction of a second, the heat would cause a high-pressure shockwave to spread out from the blast, tearing through buildings with powerful force at supersonic speed. Anyone living within 134sq km – as far away as Wandsworth, Camden and Hackney – is almost certainly wiped out due to horrific injuries and total body burns amid widespread destruction of buildings and infrastructure (inner grey ring). Large numbers of people living as far out as Stratford, Chiswick, Lewisham and Wimbledon are liable to suffer third-degree burns and buildings as far as Kingston, Croydon and Ilford suffer significant damage. Wellerstein’s model predicts that almost 1 million people would be killed instantly, with 2.2 million more suffering severe injuries, many of which would likely lead to death.

Casualties in the French capital would likely be even worse. Some 1.5 million are expected to be killed immediately by the blast, with the toll of injured rising to 2.7 million. A Topol detonated over central Paris wipes the Eiffel Tower and the Palais de Chaillot off the map, with the world-famous Arc de Triomphe, the Louvre and Montparnasse Tower reduced to rubble. Residents are far out as the suburbs of Saint-Denis suffer third-degree burns, and the windows of Paris Orly airport some 15km south of the Eiffel Tower would be shattered by the shockwave.

The Dutch capital is less densely populated than London and Paris, meaning casualty figures are lower. But Amsterdam’s comparatively small size means much of the city is wiped out. Roughly 370,000 people are killed in the moments following the blast with more than 530,000 expected to sustain severe injuries. The city centre and the nearby port are totally demolished with buildings in the neighbouring city of Haarlem suffering damage from the shockwave.

The Topol leaves some 770,000 inhabitants dead in Rome, with more than 1 million suffering grievous harm. The Italian capital’s treasured Colosseum crumbles to dust along with the Pantheon and much of Rome’s Old Town. A few kilometres from the epicentre of the blast, the Vatican also suffers massive damage with most of its inhabitants likely killed. The shockwave of the explosion continues outward, wreaking havoc and shattering windows as far as the town of Dragona, just a few kilometres from the shore of the Mediterranean.

Almost 640,000 people perish within moments of the blast over central Berlin, with almost double – 1.2 million – left with brutal injuries. The Brandenburg Gate, Berlin cathedral, the instantly recognisable TV tower spire and the Reichstag – Germany’s Parliament building – are pulverised. People living as far as the suburbs of Spandau and Wilhelmstadt suffer significant burns and the punishing shockwave affects buildings on the outskirts of the city of Potsdam several dozen kilometres south west.

Some 615,000 people in Warsaw are eliminated by the Topol-M airburst and the raging fireball with another 750,000 sustaining injuries. Most of Warsaw’s old town as well as its burgeoning financial and business centre are wiped out. The Royal Castle is razed to the ground along with the Warsaw local history museum, with the brutal shockwaves reaching as far as the outskirts of the Kampinoski National Park nearly 20km away.

In the more sparsely populated Finnish capital on the banks of the Gulf of Finland, a Topol-M blast causes the deaths of more than 120,000 and deals savage injuries to roughly 300,000 more. Several islands of the archipelago on which the capital is built are devastated, while Helsinki airport some 16kms inland is hit by the shockwave and sustains some damage.

In the Swedish capital, the death is toll more than twice that of Helsinki, standing at 268,000, while the number of injured rises to 500,000. Stockholm’s archipelago is also more densely concentrated than Helsinki, meaning more vital architecture and infrastructure are laid to waste. The Swedish Royal Palace, Stockholm City Hall and the Vasa Museum are all eviscerated with the blast radius stretching out to Danderyd, Djursholm, Huddinge and Boo.

A Topol-M strike at the heart of the American political capital erases several landmarks and locations synonymous with US history and politics. The White House and the Capitol building are demolished along with the instantly recognisable Washington Monument, the Smithsonian National Museum of American History, the National Air and Space Museum and the National Archives. Estimated fatalities rack up to 485,000 with another 839,000 suffering severe injuries. People living as far as Alexandria and Bethesda are hit with third-degree burns, with the shockwave extending out far beyond Silver Spring and College Park.

An airburst over central New York unsurprisingly would have catastrophic consequences given the population density and massive infrastructure. The immediate fireball vaporises almost everyone in Soho, Little Italy, the Lower East Side, East Village and West Village, with the eruption levelling buildings and slaying people in Midtown, Long Island, Williamsburg, Brooklyn and the Upper East Side, as well as those across the river in Jersey City and Hoboken. People in Harlem, Bushwick and North Bergen are dealt third-degree burns, with the shockwave extending as far as the Bronx and toward the outskirts of Yonkers. Some 1,560,000 are killed with the number of injured almost reaching 3,000,000. 

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