An official government review into the viability of HS2 has concluded the project should go ahead but warned it could end up costing as much as £106 billion, according to reports.
Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, is expected to make a final decision within the next few weeks on whether the high speed rail initiative should proceed.
There are mounting concerns about whether the project represents value for money with costs ballooning from an original estimate of £34 billion to £56 billion and then to approximately £88 billion last year.
The Oakervee review of the project, led by former HS2 chairman Doug Oakervee, apparently warns that it could ultimately cost north of £100 billion.
Meanwhile, construction chiefs have warned that scrapping the project would cause ‘irreparable damage’ to the industry.
The HS2 high speed railway line is designed to better connect London with cities in the Midlands and north of England but there are growing concerns over the cost of the project
The HS2 route would initially link London and Birmingham with the second phase of the project then heading north to Manchester and Leeds
However, it states that ‘on balance’ the scheme should go ahead but it is far from an unequivocal backing, with the review insisting the project must meet ‘a number of qualifications’ before being built.
The review’s seemingly reluctant backing of the infrastructure project presents Mr Johnson with a potential headache.
He is believed to be reluctant to cancel HS2 without there being a ready-made replacement on the table because of the message it could send to northern voters.
The review’s findings mean Mr Johnson will have to shoulder much of the responsibility for the project should he agree to allow it to proceed.
The high speed railway line is designed to better connect London with Birmingham with a second stage of the network then pushing north to Manchester and Leeds.
However, the Oakervee report – seen by the Financial Times – apparently suggests that phase 2b should be paused for half a year.
This would allow further work to be done to figure out whether the proposed improvements could be delivered via more conventional rail.
This would likely save a lot of money but could risk undermining the purpose of the project.
Mr Johnson will face a fierce backlash regardless of whether he decides to proceed with HS2 or scrap it.
Many Tory MPs are opposed to the project either on cost grounds or over concerns about the route and what it could mean for parts of the English countryside.
David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, said: ‘£106bn is unlikely to be the final figure for HS2.
‘This white elephant must be scrapped so we can invest in regional infrastructure projects, which will provide greater benefits for all.’
A group of Conservative MPs who are opposed to the project are expected to meet with Mr Johnson this week to urge him to cancel it.
However, pro-HS2 Tories are believed to be signing a letter to Mr Johnson urging him to press ahead with the scheme.
There is also resistance to HS2 within some parts of the civil service.
Former Treasury mandarin Nick Mapherson said: ‘What will it take for our political elite to accept this vanity project is not value for money?
‘Imagine how many sensible rail and road projects could be built with the money including the tunnel under Stonehenge.’
But construction bosses are adamant it must go ahead amid concerns cancelling it would strike a hammer blow to the industry.
The chief executives of Balfour Beatty, Skanska and Morgan Sindall were among the signatories to a letter sent to Johnson, seen by The Times, which urged him to approve the scheme and noted that it would take ‘many years to get an equivalent pipeline of work in place’ if HS2 was cancelled.
Boris Johnson, pictured with Angela Merkel in Berlin yesterday, is expected to make a decision within weeks on whether to go ahead with HS2
HS2 would allow trains to travel at speeds of up to 250mph. That would mean much faster journeys between key UK cities. The graphic shows times for HS2 passengers (in red) verses the current times (in blue)
Adam Marshall, director general of British Chambers of Commerce, said HS2 needed to be ‘delivered in full without further delay’.
‘This project is an investment that will transform the capacity of our railways and the potential of so many areas across the UK,’ he said.
‘While there can be no blank cheque, cutting the project back would put development and investment plans across the country at risk.’
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps today refused to be drawn on whether the project will go ahead.
But he said the decision will be ‘fact-based’ and made ‘quite shortly’ – ‘weeks rather than months’.
Downing Street refused to comment on the leaked report. The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said: ‘The government commissioned the Oakervee review to provide advice on whether and how to proceed with HS2.
‘A draft of the Oakervee review was delivered shortly before Christmas. We are committed to publishing the findings of the review to Parliament.’
‘That remains the case, I am not going to pre-empt its publication.’