‘If we fail to act, we risk falling further behind’: Veterans minister who warned British Army will be wiped out in ‘six months to a year’ if drawn into a large scale war is backed by top generals who pile pressure on PM over defence spending

The entire British Army would be wiped out in as little as six months in a major conflict, the veterans minister has warned.

Al Carns’ admission about the country’s lack of readiness for war piled pressure onto Sir Keir Starmer over defence spending.

The decorated former Royal Marine, who entered parliament in the summer, sent Downing Street into a tailspin with his prediction. Yet he was backed by highly respected generals, who warned that ‘if we fail to act, we risk falling further behind’.

Mr Carns, a Military Cross recipient who served five tours of Afghanistan, said yesterday: ‘In a scale of war – not a limited intervention but one similar to Ukraine – our Army, for example, on the current casualty rates, would be expended in six months to a year.’

He based his forecast on the size of the British Army – which is at its smallest since Napoleonic times – and the losses being suffered by Russia in Ukraine.

Russia is estimated to be losing as many as 1,500 troops a day – wounded, killed or fleeing the battlefield. But despite the scale of the casualties, it has still been able to make significant advances into Ukrainian territory thanks to the Kremlin’s ability to recruit and equip sufficient soldiers to take their place.

Russia, Mr Carns said, was effectively on its ‘third army’ and that its replacement troops had proved ‘critical’ to the country’s recent successes on the battlefield.

The veterans minister told the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) conference how long UK forces would last would be determined by how quickly reservists could be deployed.

UK Minister for Veterans and People, Alistair Carns said the entire British Army would be wiped out in as little as six months in a major conflict

Russia is estimated to be losing as many as 1,500 troops a day – wounded, killed or fleeing the battlefield

His emphasis on the importance of ‘absolutely central’ reservists was even more embarrassing as the Government has recently cut budgets to train part-time soldiers.

A reservist himself, Mr Carns said ‘attrition’ would be ‘decisive’ in the winning of a modern war.

The Mail’s Don’t Leave Britain Defenceless campaign pressurised the previous government on military expenditure and is determined to hold this administration to account.

Following the launch of the campaign, the Conservatives set out a timetable to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product by 2030.

In its manifesto, Labour ‘set out the path’ to spending 2.5 per cent but since the election has repeatedly refused to say when the target will be met.

Earlier this week, it emerged the Treasury wants to delay an announcement on defence spending until June next year. That, by the reckoning of the veterans minister, would be long enough for the Kremlin’s armies to obliterate the British Army.

Heaping further embarrassment on beleaguered Sir Keir, two former British generals proffered similarly desperate appraisals yesterday. Speaking at the same event, General Sir James Everard, a former deputy chief of Nato, said: ‘We know that small armies are decimated in the early stages of a conflict.’

General Sir Jim Hockenhull, the head of strategic command, pointed out there were more amputees in the Ukrainian military than there are soldiers in the British Army. He said the military needed to ‘rethink’ its use of reserves and simplify complicated call-up procedures, adding: ‘The stakes are clear: if we fail to act we risk falling further behind.’

Carns, MP speaks with army personnel, on October 29, 2024 in Salisbury, England

The Conservatives set out a timetable to increase defence spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product by 2030

Despite the UK’s exposed position on defence spending, Foreign Secretary David Lammy told allies yesterday it was time to ‘get serious’

The British Army’s new Archer Mobile Howitzer gun, as British Army soldiers take part in training near Rovaniemi in the Arctic Circle, Finland, November 19

The regular British Army stands at 71,347 personnel and, as Defence Secretary John Healey admitted recently, could dip beneath 70,000 in the months ahead. The Army has, officially at least, 25,814 reservists on its books, though their readiness for operations varies significantly.

At a time of national crisis, tens of thousands of recently retired troops could also be called upon.

Expanding the Army would require significant additional investment. But Britain’s record on defence spending came under scrutiny last night.

Despite the UK’s exposed position on defence spending, Foreign Secretary David Lammy told allies yesterday it was time to ‘get serious’.

At a summit of Nato foreign ministers in Brussels, he said: ‘We are living in very dangerous times. That is why, as we meet here, it’s hugely important we step up defence spending.

‘In the UK we are at 2.3 per cent, heading to 2.5 as soon as we can get there. We urge all allies across the Nato family to get serious about defence spending.

‘All of our populations require us to understand the tremendous security challenges we are facing at this time. The time to act is now.’

Tory defence spokesman Mark Francois said: ‘It takes some brass neck for the Foreign Secretary to upbraid other Nato partners on their defence spending. Labour has repeatedly refused to commit to a date for increasing our own defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP.

‘So this country’s budget is up in the air while the international situation continues to worsen.’

Former Army commander Colonel Hamish de Bretton-Gordon agreed, saying: ‘This is pretty rich by the Foreign Secretary, given that a fellow minister has admitted we couldn’t last in the fight. Britain needs to get serious about defence spending and its capabilities compared to its enemies. Ministers need to realise very quickly they must invest more and cut less.’

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