Donald Trump has overtaken Joe Biden in DailyMail.com’s hypothetical 2024 head-to-head poll a year ahead of an expected rematch of the last election.
It shows that the frontrunner for the Republican nomination has come back from two points down in June, when the poll was last conducted, to take a one-point lead over his likely Democratic opponent.
His rise is fueled by independent voters switching sides and by gains among graduates, who provide the bulk of support for Biden.
However, the race remains incredibly tight. And the poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted by J.L. Partners, carries a 3.1-point margin of error.
As a result it offers a corrective to the wild findings of a Washington Post/ABC News poll which gave Trump a 10-point lead, which even its own pollsters admitted was an outlier.
Even so, the narrow Trump lead should represent a warning to the Biden-Harris campaign.
Donald Trump has overtaken Joe Biden in our DailyMail.com/JL Partners national 2024 poll. He holds a one-point lead after overturning June’s two-point deficit
The 2024 election is shaping up to be a rematch of the 2020 election when Biden beat Trump
James Johnson, co-Founder of JLP, said: ‘Just three months ago, a Trump-Biden rematch looked like the Democrats’ race to lose. Now all has changed and Donald Trump is in the ascendancy once more.
‘Not only is Trump maximising enthusiasm amongst Republicans, he has also leapfrogged Biden amongst independents, is squeezing him amongst black and Hispanic voters, and is picking up support amongst younger men.’
In June, Biden led Trump by 46 points to 44. Now, Trump leads Biden by 45 points to 44.
The data show Trump now holds a two-point lead among people who class themselves as ‘independent.’ Last time around, Biden led Trump among independents by 42 points to 38.
He has also gained ground among graduates, eating into Biden’s dominance in that group. Biden’s lead has dropped from 25 points to 17 points from June.
The poll also found that other Republican candidates hold narrow leads over Biden: Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley leads by two points, while Sen. Tim Scott and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hold a one-point advantage in hypothetical matchups.
Tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and former Vice President Mike Pence trail by three points and eight points respectively.
But the focus now is on a match-up between Biden and Trump, who is the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination even though he was indicted in a fourth criminal case last month.
The results echo a national NBC poll at the weekend that put the two candidates neck and neck, and found deep dissatisfaction with the likely choice at the 2024 election.
Trump appeared at an election event at Sportsman Boats in Summerville, South Carolina on Monday. He is boycotting the second Republican debate held in California on Wednesday
Johnson said Biden’s dip was down to a mix of unhappiness with the state of the nation and Trump’s aggressive campaign.
‘This comes as voters express their overwhelming dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the economy; people simply are not feeling the improved situation that economic growth figures and falling inflation suggest,’ he said.
‘There are also profound concerns about Biden’s age.
‘One other factor: the Trump mugshot. For many independent voters – previously concerned by Trump’s indictments – that mugshot prompted doubt about the legitimacy of the criminal prosecutions the former president is facing.
‘There is plenty of time to run, but Democrats who savored the idea of Biden facing Trump in the general election may end up having serious cause for regret.’
The poll results should be viewed with caution.
It is still more than a year before voters cast their ballots and a lot can change.
The electoral college system also means that the results in swing states are more important than the overall national figures.
But the Trump campaign has been buoyed by a series of similar findings that its candidate is on a roll.
‘The fact is that President Trump will be the nominee and will beat Biden because he’s the only person who can supercharge the economy, secure our border, safeguard communities, and put an end to unnecessary wars,’ said campaign spokesman Steven Cheung.
‘Americans want to return to a prosperous nation and there’ s only one person who can do that — President Trump.’
Another poll painted Biden in an even bigger hole on Sunday. The Washington Post survey put the 80-year-old 10 points behind Trump.
JL Partner polled 1000 likely voters from September 15 to 20. The results carry a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points and show show Kamala Harris is least popular VP of recent times
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said voter views of Harris produced one of the most brutal word clouds of his career, with words such as ‘incompetent,’ ‘idiot’ and ‘unqualified’
Other pollsters said it was likely an outlier and the real race remained tighter.
But it also found that Biden’s approval rating stood at about 37 percent, a disastrous number for a president seeking reelection.
The DaillyMail.com/JLP poll also makes bleak reading for Biden’s chosen running mate, Kamala Harris.
Some 40 percent of respondents said she was the worst vice president in recent history, ahead of Republicans Mike Pence and Dick Cheney.
When asked to pick a word to summarize the vice president, respondents picked ‘incompetent’ far ahead of complimentary words such as ‘smart’ and ‘strong.’
And if that wasn’t clear enough, almost half of the 1000 people surveyed said Biden should swap out his running mate for 2024 — including 27 percent of Democrats and a quarter of black respondents.