Former world cruiserweight champion Johnny Nelson weighs in on Saturday’s world heavyweight title fight between Anthony Joshua and Oleksandr Usyk.
He says Joshua will face an almighty test from the Ukrainian and a win would underline just how much progress he has made as an elite fighter.
He is backing Joshua to win in a tight points decision but is not ruling out a draw.
Oleksandr Usyk is the best technical boxer in the business and is adept at tiring out opponents
Joshua keeps his opponents under pressure with the threat of his explosive punching power.
STRENGTHS
I saw what Usyk did to Wladimir Klitschko in sparring prior to the latter’s fight with Tyson Fury. Klitschko was having kittens trying to catch him and was throwing three punches for every one of Usyk’s. He made such an impression that they ushered Usyk out the back door of the gym so we couldn’t speak to him.
He is technically the best boxer around. An elusive southpaw, schooled in the Anatoly Lomachenko way. Usyk lures opponents into expending energy as they try to hit him, then counters to perfection.
Joshua is tall, rangy and has the weight and power. Usyk can punch, as his previous opponent Derek Chisora testifies, but Joshua is the more explosive, concussive puncher and he keeps his opponents under pressure with the threat of that power.
Joshua has a tendency to want to mix it up, which got him into trouble against Andy Ruiz Jnr
WEAKNESSES
It Is difficult to identify weaknesses in either. The mistake Usyk could have made was to put on too much weight to match Joshua. If he had come in at closer to 17st it would have been detrimental to the fluid style that has served him so well. He actually scaled 15st 11lb. We have yet to see him tested with punches from a bigger, athletic fighter.
Joshua has a tendency to want to mix it up and slug it out. It got him into trouble in the first fight against Andy Ruiz Jnr and he says he has learned his lesson.
There is an honesty to what he says, an acknowledgement that he is fallible and still learning, but he must stick to the gameplan against an intelligent boxer.
Ukrainian Usyk stays relaxed and likes to switch on his persona on the day of the fight
MENTALITY
They have been a mirror image of each other this week, with none of the trash talking you normally associate with such a fight. There’s mutual respect, two champions in confident moods — they don’t want to give the other ammunition in the build-up.
They are like two assassins preparing to go to work. Often the quieter the build-up, the more brutal the fight.
Usyk stays relaxed and likes to switch on his persona on the day of the fight. His style demands concentration from his opponent and Joshua will have to stay switched on and keep his discipline, as he did in the rematch with Ruiz Jnr.
Tony Bellew admitted he was a fan of Usyk before he got in the ring with him and it played a part mentally in his defeat. Joshua doesn’t have that concern.
Joshua will be stronger, has the bigger punch and knows Usyk will have to come close in
PHYSICALITY
Joshua possesses the edge at this weight. He has the power and the size but is also athletic. He will be stronger, has the bigger punch and knows Usyk will have to come close in at some stage.
Standing next to Usyk this week he looked heavier up top, almost square in the body, but skinny in his legs which suggests he wants to stay mobile. Usyk will try to get inside, ride Joshua’s shots then counter.Joshua must pace himself. If he has trained to throw 300 punches per round, he needs to stick to that.
We saw how Bellew ran out of gas against Usyk midway through despite being ahead and it was his undoing. Joshua will need that stamina as Usyk is patient. He likes to start steady then slowly build up his pace.
TACTICS
Usyk is one of the best at making you work harder than you want to. He wants you to punch yourself out, throw three shots to his one. By using his feet and feints, he keeps you guessing and if you get lured in and keep missing, that can be damaging for your mindset. You overthink every move, grow tired quicker, then doubt your game-plan.
I don’t see any reason for him to change as it’s what he does best. Ideally, Joshua could rush in and go for the explosive finish early on but I think he’ll play it safe and figure out what’s in front of him.
He’s a more rounded, patient fighter now. He is fleet-footed and can keep his discipline — using that extra power and reach to keep totting up points.
This is a big test for Joshua but he should win on points although a draw is possible
VERDICT
The boxing public is slowly waking up to how big a test this is for Anthony Joshua.
He really hasn’t had the credit he deserves for taking this challenge. If he wins, it will underline his progress as an elite fighter.
It’s that close, I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends in a draw, but I’ll go for Joshua to win on a tight points decision.